Milk Price Tracker

[Sid]

Current Muller base price is 26.25, rising a penny next month, plus or minus a bit with a few add ons or possibly penalties.
Don’t know wether the 29 will be subject to the add ons/ penalties as well.
Milk price is rising as you say in NZ and faster and from a higher level with Arla back home, it’s all a gamble, we don’t know where the milk price will be come autumn let alone in 2 or 3 years time.
At a guess, Muller have no more idea than me over the longer term but a 3 year fixed price could help them do a 3 year deal with Lidl, knowing one of their biggest costs is fixed

Saputo Davidstow hold for July at 30.65ppl

Makes Muller look very poor

 

[Headless chicken]

Muller aren’t stupid would be my guess

 

[Milkcow365]

What’s glanbia at now

 

[Headless chicken]

What’s glanbia at now

28 something I think. @Bald Rick?

edit I checked the emails. 29ppl for June. Suspect they will feel pressure to bring us up shortly

 

[it's not over]

28 something I think. @Bald Rick?

edit I checked the emails. 29ppl for June. Suspect they will feel pressure to bring us up shortly

Well not know what we're getting for mays milk for another 3 weeks, n.ireland

 

[Sid]

View attachment 963929
Muller aren’t stupid would be my guess

Wonder what it was same time last year?

 

[O'Reilly]

There is that but imo, I would need to be able to fix the price on the biggest costs for the next 3 years as well in order for it to be worth my while otherwise theres no guarantee that I can produce that milk for 25ppl
ie: I would have to be able to fix the price on half of my cake,
buy enough fertiliser to last me for the next 3 years, enough straw for youngstock,
all my seed required,
Enough silage sheet/wrap/net for 3 years
fix the price on half my diesel etc.
Thats just off the top of my head but unless I could guarantee the price on half of my total costs too it's still a no go for me personally

In Feb '14 we had 34ppl for our milk, in the following couple of years we got down to 17ppl. Part of that was first milks incompetence, as they were doing a great job of trying to go bust. If you have the psychological scars of those kind of situations, then any kind of certainty is welcome, and looking at the five year average, 29ppl wouldn't be too bad. It's only half your output after all.
I notice on potter that the minimum collection is 120,000 per month so it's not for everyone anyway, if I read that correctly.

 

[Sid]

In Feb '14 we had 34ppl for our milk, in the following couple of years we got down to 17ppl. Part of that was first milks incompetence, as they were doing a great job of trying to go bust. If you have the psychological scars of those kind of situations, then any kind of certainty is welcome, and looking at the five year average, 29ppl wouldn't be too bad. It's only half your output after all.
I notice on potter that the minimum collection is 120,000 per month so it's not for everyone anyway, if I read that correctly.

Minimum 120,000 litres a month up to 50% of farmers milk.

So have to be a annual 2.8 million producer?

 

[Beef farmer]

Minimum 120,000 litres a month up to 50% of farmers milk.

So have to be a annual 2.8 million producer?

And an ayr calver.

 

[kiwi pom]

Wonder what it was same time last year?View attachment 963970

Where does all this spot milk come from? Is it processors selling it on, or are there producers out there with no contract?

 

[Sid]

Where does all this spot milk come from? Is it processors selling it on, or are there producers out there with no contract?

Spot is a very small volume in the whole UK.

Will be where a customer has committed to a volume but decides to take the minimum on contracted volume so is "spare"

 

[Tarw Coch]

Minimum 120,000 litres a month up to 50% of farmers milk.

So have to be a annual 2.8 million producer?

Don’t think that’s right, probably 120,000 per year minimum.
It’s not actually half your milk, firstly it’s based on your lowest months production and then can only be taken in blocks of 10,000 litres.
So say your lowest months production was 65,000 litres you could only get it on 30,000 litres per month for the whole year.

 

[Sid]

Don’t think that’s right, probably 120,000 per year minimum.
It’s not actually half your milk, firstly it’s based on your lowest months production and then can only be taken in blocks of 10,000 litres.
So say your lowest months production was 65,000 litres you could only get it on 30,000 litres per month for the whole year.

What I quoted came off Mr P's weekly bulletin

 

[dinderleat]

What I quoted came off Mr P's weekly bulletin

Because he’s always right?

 

[Sid]

Because he’s always right?

I did put a ? at the end of my post.

Doesn't seem correct to me.

Probably an apology in next week's bulletin.

 

[betweenthelines]

Spot is a very small volume in the whole UK.

Will be where a customer has committed to a volume but decides to take the minimum on contracted volume so is "spare"

More likely to be the odd bit that the processor doesn't need on a particular day. Supermarket orders vary by 25-30%/day and most processors don't work on a Sunday.

Some Dairies deliberately go low on ex farm contracts as they think it's cheaper to buy the marginal volumes on spot than go the other way and have to dump surplus (to their needs) on the spot market. Muller like to have plenty on Contract as they have numerous product lines they can switch to (bottles, cream, butter, yogurt, flavoured)

But, as has been said, spot is a tiny percentage of volume and certainly not indicative of general price movements.

 

[Sid]

Spot is a very small volume in the whole UK

But, as has been said, spot is a tiny percentage of volume

That's exactly what I said

Will be where a customer has committed to a volume but decides to take the minimum on contracted volume so is "spare"

More likely to be the odd bit that the processor doesn't need on a particular day. Supermarket orders vary by 25-30%/day and most processors don't work on a Sunday.

Again that's exactly what I said.

There's an echo echo echo echo

 

[frederick]

That's exactly what I said



Again that's exactly what I said.

There's an echo echo echo echo

Spot can only be in the low 20s at the moment because there is insufficient capacity to cope with it or brexit has fudged our export markets.
Ampe and mcve are both 33ppl so if milk is delivered to a factory with capacity at 23p there is a 10ppl profit margin straight away.

 

[Sid]

Spot can only be in the low 20s at the moment because there is insufficient capacity to cope with it or brexit has fudged our export markets.
Ampe and mcve are both 33ppl so if milk is delivered to a factory with capacity at 23p there is a 10ppl profit margin straight away.

As Milkprices.com said, if your looking could be 30ppl.....if your selling could be 20ppl.

As you say ATM exporting time sensitive dairy is a no go!

 

[betweenthelines]

Spot can only be in the low 20s at the moment because there is insufficient capacity to cope with it or brexit has fudged our export markets.
Ampe and mcve are both 33ppl so if milk is delivered to a factory with capacity at 23p there is a 10ppl profit margin straight away.

Think you should re read some of the posts on here.

Milk sold on the Spot market is basically the odd tanker load that the original buyer no longer wants.

Like the last Turkey in the butcher's shop being sold for a tenner at 5 pm on Christmas Eve.