- Location
- Stoneleigh
Smaller global crop in 2021/22?
Global barley production was forecast to fall in 2021/22 by the International Grains Council (IGC) in January. The IGC made this projection as part of its five year outlook to 2025/26 so few details are available. In January, the IGC projected the 2021 crop at 151.3Mt, 1.7Mt below a static demand – more on this below.
Both Stratégie Grains and RMI suggest a similar global situation in 2021/22 to the IGC. The IGC usually makes its first detailed assessment of the new season in late-April.
In the major barley exporting countries, barley supplies look likely to be similar to 2020/21. But, at this early stage, average or ‘trend’ yields are used to make the projections. A good growing season and higher yields would increase supplies and reduce support for barley prices.
Price impact
Forward barley prices are not as readily available as spot prices or those for other grains. The available prices show new crop barley supported relative to other crops. This reflects the potential for tighter global barley supplies next season.
For example, in the UK last week, feed barley for November delivery priced just £14.50/t below spot delivery. For feed wheat, the gap between old and new crop prices was much wider. New crop barley is also at a much smaller discount to feed wheat (£17.50/t) than it has been this season.
But, the overall direction of UK barley prices will be determined by the global supply of and demand for wheat and maize.
https://ahdb.org.uk/news/new-season-barley-prices-relatively-supported-analyst-s-insight
Join the 3.5K people who subscribe to our Grain Market Daily publication here - https://ahdb.org.uk/keeping-in-touch
Global barley production was forecast to fall in 2021/22 by the International Grains Council (IGC) in January. The IGC made this projection as part of its five year outlook to 2025/26 so few details are available. In January, the IGC projected the 2021 crop at 151.3Mt, 1.7Mt below a static demand – more on this below.
Both Stratégie Grains and RMI suggest a similar global situation in 2021/22 to the IGC. The IGC usually makes its first detailed assessment of the new season in late-April.
In the major barley exporting countries, barley supplies look likely to be similar to 2020/21. But, at this early stage, average or ‘trend’ yields are used to make the projections. A good growing season and higher yields would increase supplies and reduce support for barley prices.
Price impact
Forward barley prices are not as readily available as spot prices or those for other grains. The available prices show new crop barley supported relative to other crops. This reflects the potential for tighter global barley supplies next season.
For example, in the UK last week, feed barley for November delivery priced just £14.50/t below spot delivery. For feed wheat, the gap between old and new crop prices was much wider. New crop barley is also at a much smaller discount to feed wheat (£17.50/t) than it has been this season.
But, the overall direction of UK barley prices will be determined by the global supply of and demand for wheat and maize.
https://ahdb.org.uk/news/new-season-barley-prices-relatively-supported-analyst-s-insight
Join the 3.5K people who subscribe to our Grain Market Daily publication here - https://ahdb.org.uk/keeping-in-touch
