Plenty of news to digest ahead of today's USDA WASDE

[CRM AgriCommodities]

Cereals

• Once again the UK grain market rallied despite wheat yields currently coming in about average so far. The LIFFE Feed wheat futures hit some buy stops and traded to a July 2015 high, above the post plantings high of £134, then fell back to previously traded levels around £131.80.
• UK consultants weekly harvest report:
  • Winter wheat 5% harvested;
  • Spring Wheat 10% (not enough data for yield est.);
  • Winter barley 90% harvested and yields 5.9-6.3T/ha;
  • Spring Barley just started.
• Euronext Milling Wheat futures are caught between the big FSU supply (bearish) and France's yield (bullish) and hence has been trading sideways.
• Little change in DEFRA's acreage report with wheat area unchanged yoy at 1.7Mln ha; barley +6.6% (winter -0.1% to 376k ha and spring +13% to 422k ha).
• Rains still causing havoc to European grain crops and harvests.
• USDA weekly export sales report was good for both wheat and corn, but more needed due to large carryover stocks.
• Chart of the day shows the US ethanol production reacting to good export demand but stocks remaining high.
• Russian analyst forecasts 2016 grain crop at 115.3MlnT v 108.8 prev. est.
• Ukrainian winter grain harvest is 99% complete, 6.1Mln ha of wheat with av. yield 4.26T/ha and prod. 26.1MlnT v 26.5 last yr.
• European farm machine industry sentiment at record low in August.
• EU granted 450kT of soft wheat & 50kT barley export licenses; 118kT of corn import licenses.
• Argentina expected to plant 4.61Mln ha of wheat in 2016 v 4.5 prev. est.
• Jordan issues a new 100kT feed barley tender.
• Saudi Arabia issues tender to buy 600kT of hard wheat.
• A European analyst updated its EU-28 grain estimates for 2016:
  • Soft wheat production 137.9MlnT, -7.7MlnT from LM and -9% on 2015;
  • Soft wheat exports 24.7MlnT, -4.3MlnT from LM and about -23% on 2015;
  • All barley production 60.6MlnT, -1.5MlnT from LM and -1% on 2015;
  • Maize production 60.6MlnT, -1.1MlnT from LM and -6% on 2015.

Oilseeds

• European OSR prices eased today and then rallied into the close. Once again UK prices were supported by sterling weakness and disappointing yields.
• DEFRA's acreage report showed OSR area down 11% yoy to 546k ha (mainly all winter).
• A UK consultants weekly harvest report showed OSR 80% harvested and yields 3-3.2T/ha below 5-yr average of 3.6.T/ha.
• As expected the USDA's weekly US soybean new crop sales were big at 2.79MlnT with exports.

Of Interest

• US weather forecaster still predicts La Niña starting in the fall or winter.
• Indian monsoon rains 15% above average over the past week.
• Oil markets rallied more than 4% today after the Saudi oil minister said OPEC and non-OPEC members would discuss a plan to stabilise prices while the IEA reported that markets would tighten in H2 of 2016.
• Sterling just can't find any upside momentum as it trades to week lows against the US$ and €uro.
• Monthly USDA WASDE report will be released tomorrow evening.