PPA prices

DaveGrohl

Member
Mixed Farmer
Location
Cumbria
Friday 25/2/22
6 months offer - 25.3p
1 year contract- 21.3p
Did you manage to get it signed at that? I’ve been hearing about offers made and then immediately agreed only for the rug to be pulled and price adjusted downwards. Could be some buyers are playing a game with generators right now, ie deliberately offering a higher price than they want and then snipping a bit off once they’ve got a bite.
 

e3120

Member
Mixed Farmer
Location
Northumberland
Anyone else think that there could be some more flexibility in selling? As it sits, I've been selling my year's production at the best price I can get in the months leading to up renewal. Hasn't been much benefit in looking further ahead as buyers aren't inclined to offer strong prices reaching out 18-24 months. There seems to be no middle ground between a tracker and a fixed contract. I'd like to be able to sell a few megawatt hours when I thought the price was right, without loosing the opportunity to stay long on the remainder.

Of course this question comes from a hindsight position. I tracked during 2020 when the market was flat. Lowest month 3p. Locked in to 9 when things improved in early 2021. Thought 10p should be taken in autumn 2021 but am now tied until March 23. Obviously I should have tracked all the way, but I considered this high risk. Maybe if volatility is new normal selling spot is the sensible option.
 
Are all you chaps all on turbines?

I was looking at our export from 50kw solar. We're with EDF atm, but a rolling contract so could move.

EDF are not taking any small producers any more, so we stay as we are or...
Octopus seem to want under 10kw and are difficult to speak to.
Limejump - bad reviews from users. But maybe better now Shell have taken over?

HH meter is leased from EDF and the metering charge is absorbed in the prices paid. Haven't signed a new agreement with them yet. It's due April 1st. But some meter providers (WPD) want the £180 per MPAN as well as a lease charge. So a calculater is needed. If we change export do we need to change the HH meter?

Energy market is all over the place at the moment literally hour for hour
May be @AlexMcGowan can help you

I did pm Alex on here, as invited, but no reply - yet.

EDF were paying us 5. 57p October - December for exported units.
 

Exfarmer

Member
Location
Bury St Edmunds
Are all you chaps all on turbines?

I was looking at our export from 50kw solar. We're with EDF atm, but a rolling contract so could move.

EDF are not taking any small producers any more, so we stay as we are or...
Octopus seem to want under 10kw and are difficult to speak to.
Limejump - bad reviews from users. But maybe better now Shell have taken over?

HH meter is leased from EDF and the metering charge is absorbed in the prices paid. Haven't signed a new agreement with them yet. It's due April 1st. But some meter providers (WPD) want the £180 per MPAN as well as a lease charge. So a calculater is needed. If we change export do we need to change the HH meter?



I did pm Alex on here, as invited, but no reply - yet.

EDF were paying us 5. 57p October - December for exported units.
Try F&S EmIly is very helpful, but may not be quite as high as Alex is Quoting.let me know how you get on
 

e3120

Member
Mixed Farmer
Location
Northumberland
I'm a turbine man, currently with limejump, but leaving in a month. Billing issues just too frequent and overly opaque in how price is portrayed.

It sounds like you're on the basic export tariff, if that's all you're getting. PPAs are in a different league currently. You shouldn't have to change meter if you move, but edf might have you stitched up. My meter was £300 to buy and £99/yr from wpd, completely separate from import and export suppliers (always been different). Somewhere there will be ~£30/mth of dc/da (data) to pay, but it's often absorbed by/billed through your PPA.
 

Fowler VF

Member
Location
Herefordshire
Day ahead prices for tomorrow: We trade forward, day ahead and system prices through Engie.




2.3.22 prices.png


Month ahead and season prices:


2.3.22 forward.png
 

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F&SEnergy

Member
Try F&S EmIly is very helpful, but may not be quite as high as Alex is Quoting.let me know how you get on
Thank you for the recommendation. People can get in touch on:

or drop us an email at: [email protected]
or: 01245 690151
 

Fowler VF

Member
Location
Herefordshire
Changes in day ahead prices over the last two years, these are weekly averages. For most of 2020 it was below £50/Mwh, (thats 5p per kwh). In mid 2021 it began to rise and went over 20p per kwh and then on up to 30p. It dropped back over Christmas and has ended up circa 20p per unit through January and February this year. But these are just averages, they hid some of the major peaks. day ahead prices are for one hour slots in a day, we have seen them go as high a £4,000 per Mwh. Yes that really is £4 per kwh for the odd hour or so. The system price, thats what you get for uncontracted output that hasnt been forward sold, changes very half hour and that has been even more erratic.

Our generation, from wood gas engines, is fairly constant. but what we have been able to do is to trade on the day ahead market and make sure that we export the maximum we can on the days and hours of highest price simply by turning off any onsite big power users for a short period. E.g. the cold stores can easily be turned off for an hour or two ate a peak moment, thye just catchup again later.

Limejump do offer a tracker and pass through tariff. They estimate your likely output for each half hour slot and sell a proportion on the day ahead market and the rest on system price on the day. This gives you access to those currently high short term prices. BUT it can work both ways, back in 2020 the average day ahead price was below 5p, at a time when most longer term PPA's had been set at around 8p. Also, if you have sold day ahead and then fail to produce sufficient electric the system makes you buy back the shortfall on the system price. usually the day ahead and system arent miles apart on a long term average. But in a volatile market they can be miles apart. E.g. sell on day ahead at 25p per kwh, fail to generate and have to buy back at £4. Fortunately ti doesnt happen often but it needs bearing in mind. So, could be awkward to sell output from wind or solar on this basis; you have no control over production! But depending on your on site power use you might have control of export by limiting onsite use.

Engie have a more sophisticated trading system for this market, rather than the Limejump way of estimating output based on history the Engie system allows you to specify output for each half hour slot. It can then be traded on day ahead or month ahead. downside is that it only allows blocks of 100kw minimum power. For instance, back in December we were able to sell a block of 100kw forward for all day production in February 2022, thats 67,200 kwh, for 45p per kwh.

If nothing else the day ahead market and system market do give you an idea of where the longer term market for PPA's is heading. We could sell forward for summer at over 21p and winter at 22p right now.


Day ahead graphs 1.3.22.png
 
Changes in day ahead prices over the last two years, these are weekly averages. For most of 2020 it was below £50/Mwh, (thats 5p per kwh). In mid 2021 it began to rise and went over 20p per kwh and then on up to 30p. It dropped back over Christmas and has ended up circa 20p per unit through January and February this year. But these are just averages, they hid some of the major peaks. day ahead prices are for one hour slots in a day, we have seen them go as high a £4,000 per Mwh. Yes that really is £4 per kwh for the odd hour or so. The system price, thats what you get for uncontracted output that hasnt been forward sold, changes very half hour and that has been even more erratic.

Our generation, from wood gas engines, is fairly constant. but what we have been able to do is to trade on the day ahead market and make sure that we export the maximum we can on the days and hours of highest price simply by turning off any onsite big power users for a short period. E.g. the cold stores can easily be turned off for an hour or two ate a peak moment, thye just catchup again later.

Limejump do offer a tracker and pass through tariff. They estimate your likely output for each half hour slot and sell a proportion on the day ahead market and the rest on system price on the day. This gives you access to those currently high short term prices. BUT it can work both ways, back in 2020 the average day ahead price was below 5p, at a time when most longer term PPA's had been set at around 8p. Also, if you have sold day ahead and then fail to produce sufficient electric the system makes you buy back the shortfall on the system price. usually the day ahead and system arent miles apart on a long term average. But in a volatile market they can be miles apart. E.g. sell on day ahead at 25p per kwh, fail to generate and have to buy back at £4. Fortunately ti doesnt happen often but it needs bearing in mind. So, could be awkward to sell output from wind or solar on this basis; you have no control over production! But depending on your on site power use you might have control of export by limiting onsite use.

Engie have a more sophisticated trading system for this market, rather than the Limejump way of estimating output based on history the Engie system allows you to specify output for each half hour slot. It can then be traded on day ahead or month ahead. downside is that it only allows blocks of 100kw minimum power. For instance, back in December we were able to sell a block of 100kw forward for all day production in February 2022, thats 67,200 kwh, for 45p per kwh.

If nothing else the day ahead market and system market do give you an idea of where the longer term market for PPA's is heading. We could sell forward for summer at over 21p and winter at 22p right now.


View attachment 1020121
what system are you using on woodgas
 

Fowler VF

Member
Location
Herefordshire
We have six Spanner units.

Power prices very volatile again. System price for today peaked at £670 for one half hour slot and day ahead peak tomorrow is over £550, average £400. April base load shot up to £475/mwh yesterday. Very little month ahead (if any) actually traded, there were no real buyers in the market. Dropped back again this morning, but still very high:

"Moves down can be seen across a lot of the power and gas curves today after extremely bullish moves yesterday reached all time highs.

Power prices for baseload april 2022 have decreased by £128.25/MWh to trade at £380.75/MWh. Baseload for Summer 2022 has decreased by £115.00/MWh to trade at £360.00/MWH. UK NBP prices have shown a decrease of 191.38p/therm for April 2022, now trading at 482.04p/therm. Summer 2022 has decreased by 159.00p/therm to trade at 451.00p/therm. "
 
I fixed forward through Alex at a rate of virtually 4 x what we were getting 12 months ago and 25% higher than FS, before Putin invaded.
FS have over the last couple of years become “slower” with payments in my experience.
The forward rates have increased significantly since then so I will have to bite down and wait for this current rate to expire and see what next year brings, but I doubt rates will go into freefall.
 

DaveGrohl

Member
Mixed Farmer
Location
Cumbria
I was told a few weeks ago that Drax won’t be offering realistic prices for a few weeks yet, something to do with balancing charges from a partner. They’re nowhere near the market. You should at least talk to Alex or try the Renewable Exchange platform. The latter will show you what’s happening to prices, although seeing some offers and getting locked in are two different things. Prices on there tend to have an expiry time of one hour at the moment, and you can get zero offers at times. But at the very least it will show you what’s actually going on.
 

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