UK sinking under an ocean of debts?

[TheTallGuy]

I would love somebody to explain the value of Tesla.
2021 was the first year that Toyota has been the best selling brand in the USA, as well as the best selling brand globally (which it has held since 2008). Has the biggest dealer network and parts supply network in the world. They sell 9.5 million vehicles a year which they can share parts, design costs etc over, including many parts which are transferrable to EVs. Also has a joint venture with Panasonic (arguably the best battery manufacturer in the world), as well as the worlds best and most established reputation for reliability. When they start releasing mainstream electric cars Tesla will not be able to compete on price (or build quality), and will become a premium brand reserved for the very wealthy in those small parts of the world where reliability is unimportant (like Jaguar Land Rover) That's my 2p prediction anyway. No way Tesla has more value than Toyota.

The value is based on the potential future of the business rather than the current market share. Whilst the Tesla cars are "expensive" and potentially of questionable build quality, they're still years ahead of the competition & of significant importance is that they have a technology portfolio that extends beyond the EV market & so are not reliant on a narrow market. That's not to say that Tesla isn't probably massively over valued at this time.

 

[ollie989898]

The value is based on the potential future of the business rather than the current market share. Whilst the Tesla cars are "expensive" and potentially of questionable build quality, they're still years ahead of the competition & of significant importance is that they have a technology portfolio that extends beyond the EV market & so are not reliant on a narrow market. That's not to say that Tesla isn't probably massively over valued at this time.

There is nothing in a Tesla car that Toyota or VW need be afraid of.

It will still be a blood bath in the automaker world mind in the next 10 years as only the largest companies will be able to afford to turn their backs on billions of dollars worth of R and D and stop making engines and switch to motors and batteries. BMW is already ahead of the curve with their fully electric and hybrid options, some of which look a lot more gorgeous than any Tesla.

 

[BrianV]

There is nothing in a Tesla car that Toyota or VW need be afraid of.

It will still be a blood bath in the automaker world mind in the next 10 years as only the largest companies will be able to afford to turn their backs on billions of dollars worth of R and D and stop making engines and switch to motors and batteries. BMW is already ahead of the curve with their fully electric and hybrid options, some of which look a lot more gorgeous than any Tesla.

Musk is a genius for ideas there's no denying that but nothing ever stands still & the other car companies know they have to catch up quickly & they will, Tesla have no dealerships as such & when the other car companies splash all their newer models all over their forecourts for you to try out Tesla will start to struggle.

 

[Dave645]

I would love somebody to explain the value of Tesla.
2021 was the first year that Toyota has been the best selling brand in the USA, as well as the best selling brand globally (which it has held since 2008). Has the biggest dealer network and parts supply network in the world. They sell 9.5 million vehicles a year which they can share parts, design costs etc over, including many parts which are transferrable to EVs. Also has a joint venture with Panasonic (arguably the best battery manufacturer in the world), as well as the worlds best and most established reputation for reliability. When they start releasing mainstream electric cars Tesla will not be able to compete on price (or build quality), and will become a premium brand reserved for the very wealthy in those small parts of the world where reliability is unimportant (like Jaguar Land Rover) That's my 2p prediction anyway. No way Tesla has more value than Toyota.

Having the ability to make 9.5 million cars which are not EV is no longer an advantage it’s a disadvantage.
The fact car parts are shared with EV’s is not an advantage it’s a disadvantage, because your not custom making an EV from the ground up, you squeezing an EV into an ice car, so your not taking the advantage of a clean sheet design.
Tesla is aiming to cost the cost of an EV buy 45% with structural coating front and rear and structural battery pack, and a new design of battery.
So legacy car makers will not have the ability to make expensive EV’s to cover the cost of the transition of production to EV from ICE so that leaves them over priced under production.
If the only car they can sell is an EV it’s no longer an advantage to make 9.5 million cars no one will buy.
As for Panasonic yes good call but they are ramping to make more and more batteries and car makers are battery limited.
Relying on others to make parts for you when everyone is looking for more batteries to ramp production puts you at a disadvantage. If they said they were going to make their own then that would be a good thing, they are not even designing their own batteries, and that means they have to over pay for batteries as the battery company is in a supply constrained market advantage them, so another disadvantage for Toyota and others in the same possition.

 

[ollie989898]

Having the ability to make 9.5 million cars which are not EV is no longer an advantage it’s a disadvantage.
The fact car parts are shared with EV’s is not an advantage it’s a disadvantage, because your not custom making an EV from the ground up, you squeezing an EV into an ice car, so your not taking the advantage of a clean sheet design.
Tesla is aiming to cost the cost of an EV buy 45% with structural coating front and rear and structural battery pack, and a new design of battery.
So legacy car makers will not have the ability to make expensive EV’s to cover the cost of the transition of production to EV from ICE so that leaves them over priced under production.
If the only car they can sell is an EV it’s no longer an advantage to make 9.5 million cars no one will buy.
As for Panasonic yes good call but they are ramping to make more and more batteries and car makers are battery limited.
Relying on others to make parts for you when everyone is looking for more batteries to ramp production puts you at a disadvantage. If they said they were going to make their own then that would be a good thing, they are not even designing their own batteries, and that means they have to over pay for batteries as the battery company is in a supply constrained market advantage them, so another disadvantage for Toyota and others in the same possition.

You are making an erroneous assumption. Toyota and co already have millions of existing customers for parts and service. They can't go dealerless. And there is no way I would ever buy a car without seeing it first either.

Tesla have not done anything revolutionary for cars. As I have written in other threads, there is a lot of clever design in even a 1.0L Toyota Aygo. It takes months to design a door and even longer to design the interior- it has to pass safety and crash testing, it has to pass NVH tests. It has to be drive by quiet too and the latest regs for this are talking of less than 70db which is near human speech sound levels.

Suspension is another very tricky area to get right.

Toyota and co have decades of experience of building cars. Forget what drivetrain they have, just panel gaps and non-creaking interiors are a challenge for some car makers.

 

[dave mountain]

Having the ability to make 9.5 million cars which are not EV is no longer an advantage it’s a disadvantage.
The fact car parts are shared with EV’s is not an advantage it’s a disadvantage, because your not custom making an EV from the ground up, you squeezing an EV into an ice car, so your not taking the advantage of a clean sheet design.
Tesla is aiming to cost the cost of an EV buy 45% with structural coating front and rear and structural battery pack, and a new design of battery.
So legacy car makers will not have the ability to make expensive EV’s to cover the cost of the transition of production to EV from ICE so that leaves them over priced under production.
If the only car they can sell is an EV it’s no longer an advantage to make 9.5 million cars no one will buy.
As for Panasonic yes good call but they are ramping to make more and more batteries and car makers are battery limited.
Relying on others to make parts for you when everyone is looking for more batteries to ramp production puts you at a disadvantage. If they said they were going to make their own then that would be a good thing, they are not even designing their own batteries, and that means they have to over pay for batteries as the battery company is in a supply constrained market advantage them, so another disadvantage for Toyota and others in the same possition.

Actually for Toyota it is an advantage. Many of their markets (big markets, the western world is only part of the global market) are decades away from moving to EVs. They can gradually move over their existing strategically located and well established factories to EV production as required, and the supply chains, parts networks etc can follow.

 

[Dave645]

There is nothing in a Tesla car that Toyota or VW need be afraid of.

It will still be a blood bath in the automaker world mind in the next 10 years as only the largest companies will be able to afford to turn their backs on billions of dollars worth of R and D and stop making engines and switch to motors and batteries. BMW is already ahead of the curve with their fully electric and hybrid options, some of which look a lot more gorgeous than any Tesla.

I agree some cars will never appeal to everyone, but price will end up being key. The market for massively over priced cars is small, compared with the lower end so if BMW can retain that market but not the lower end it’s still not good for them.
The model S Tesla is far nearer the BMW range in price and fitment, but they are miles behind the model S in value

https://www.tesla.com/en_GB/models

https://www.bmw.co.uk/en/all-models/bmw-i/i4/2021/bmw-i4-highlights.html

While style is going to make some people’s minds up every time, and they will go for a BMW it’s not very good value for money especially when you add in the Tesla charge network.

 

[dave mountain]

I agree some cars will never appeal to everyone, but price will end up being key. The market for massively over priced cars is small, compared with the lower end so if BMW can retain that market but not the lower end it’s still not good for them.
The model S Tesla is far nearer the BMW range in price and fitment, but they are miles behind the model S in value

https://www.tesla.com/en_GB/models

https://www.bmw.co.uk/en/all-models/bmw-i/i4/2021/bmw-i4-highlights.html

While style is going to make some people’s minds up every time, and they will go for a BMW it’s not very good value for money especially when you add in the Tesla charge network.

Tesla needs to sell a lot more cars than BMW does in total to get anywhere near being as valuable as Toyota, let alone Tesla's current valuation. Yes price is key, that's why Toyota will sell a lot more EVs than Tesla as soon as mainstream models are released. Think of Tesla like the original range rover and land rover 90/110. They were first, and nowadays are still a lot nicer, but they are still outsold by hiluxs and landcruisers by a country mile, due to price and build quality.

 

[ollie989898]

I agree some cars will never appeal to everyone, but price will end up being key. The market for massively over priced cars is small, compared with the lower end so if BMW can retain that market but not the lower end it’s still not good for them.
The model S Tesla is far nearer the BMW range in price and fitment, but they are miles behind the model S in value

https://www.tesla.com/en_GB/models

https://www.bmw.co.uk/en/all-models/bmw-i/i4/2021/bmw-i4-highlights.html

While style is going to make some people’s minds up every time, and they will go for a BMW it’s not very good value for money especially when you add in the Tesla charge network.

The i4 starts at around 50K. The Model S??

EU rules are going to make all chargers, cars and cables generic anyway so there will be no bonus to Tesla's network.

 

[BrianV]

Tesla needs to sell a lot more cars than BMW does in total to get anywhere near being as valuable as Toyota, let alone Tesla's current valuation. Yes price is key, that's why Toyota will sell a lot more EVs than Tesla as soon as mainstream models are released. Think of Tesla like the original range rover and land rover 90/110. They were first, and nowadays are still a lot nicer, but they are still outsold by hiluxs and landcruisers by a country mile, due to price and build quality.

Think we may all be jumping the gun here, as the electric supply becomes more & more expensive & taxes start to be placed on electric cars to replace the lost revenue on petrol governments are going to have to rethink their fixed date cutoff before too long.
The UK's electric supply on cloudy windless cold days is no where near adequate enough to cope with the increase in demand for both cars & homes if they plough on with their idiotic plans, any action by Russia to reduce gas flows will send the price of our only real standby electric supply skywards!

 

[dave mountain]

The i4 starts at around 50K. The Model S??

EU rules are going to make all chargers, cars and cables generic anyway so there will be no bonus to Tesla's network.

I notice this conversation seems to focus on the western world, where it will be BMW Vs Tesla Vs VW for high end cars, and for trucks and lower end cars it will be Ford Vs Toyota. The rest of the globe, there is only one brand that can win. Stick a Toyota badge on anything and that's what they will buy, and that will continue as long as they continue to produce bombproof vehicles.

 

[ollie989898]

I notice this conversation seems to focus on the western world, where it will be BMW Vs Tesla Vs VW for high end cars, and for trucks and lower end cars it will be Ford Vs Toyota. The rest of the globe, there is only one brand that can win. Stick a Toyota badge on anything and that's what they will buy, and that will continue as long as they continue to produce bombproof vehicles.

Ford are pulling their claws, GM have abandoned Europe as well. Rest of world is all Korean.

 

[TheTallGuy]

There is nothing in a Tesla car that Toyota or VW need be afraid of.

It will still be a blood bath in the automaker world mind in the next 10 years as only the largest companies will be able to afford to turn their backs on billions of dollars worth of R and D and stop making engines and switch to motors and batteries. BMW is already ahead of the curve with their fully electric and hybrid options, some of which look a lot more gorgeous than any Tesla.

The Tesla battery and drivetrain management technology is still way ahead of other manufacturers & some of it is proprietary/patented. Tesla also has several years worth of accumulated operating data which they analyse to understand how to improve performance. BMW & VAG can chuck money at development, but it's not something that can be turned around overnight.

 

[Surface Tension]

Think we may all be jumping the gun here, as the electric supply becomes more & more expensive & taxes start to be placed on electric cars to replace the lost revenue on petrol governments are going to have to rethink their fixed date cutoff before too long.
The UK's electric supply on cloudy windless cold days is no where near adequate enough to cope with the increase in demand for both cars & homes if the plough on with their idiotic plans, any action by Russia to reduce gas flows will send the price of our only real standby electric supply skywards!

5kW in solar pv panels will be enough to produce the power needed to charge the average use of an EV per year. Obviously the power produced will vary over the year but you would have the grid as a back-up. As electricity prices rise and the cost of solar pv systems continues to decrease it will make more sense for households and business to install panels rather than draw power from the grid.

To replace the revenue cars can be chipped and a pay-per-mile system brought in with a higher PPM for congested and busy roads allowing some control over road use.

 

[ollie989898]

The Tesla battery and drivetrain management technology is still way ahead of other manufacturers & some of it is proprietary/patented. Tesla also has several years worth of accumulated operating data which they analyse to understand how to improve performance. BMW & VAG can chuck money at development, but it's not something that can be turned around overnight.

Time will tell. But from the Tesla's I have seen about I wouldn't rate their build quality one jot.

 

[Tarw Coch]

The value is based on the potential future of the business rather than the current market share

There’s plenty have gone on Dragons Den with that attitude and been given short shrift

 

[ollie989898]

There’s plenty have gone on Dragons Den with that attitude and been given short shrift

This is Tesla's issue. It's convinced a lot of people it is worth a lot of money. In reality Tesla, as an automaker, are all mouth and no trousers.

 

[br jones]

nave tesla just recalled 350000 cars ?

 

[oil barron]

There’s plenty have gone on Dragons Den with that attitude and been given short shrift

I don’t think Elon is worrying about getting £150k from Deborah Meadan

 

[2wheels]

I notice this conversation seems to focus on the western world, where it will be BMW Vs Tesla Vs VW for high end cars, and for trucks and lower end cars it will be Ford Vs Toyota. The rest of the globe, there is only one brand that can win. Stick a Toyota badge on anything and that's what they will buy, and that will continue as long as they continue to produce bombproof vehicles.

toyota bombproof? my son has 2 taxis to fix both approaching 100,000mls, not a lot for a taxi. these are avensis models with bmw diesel engines. one had a snapped timing chain about 12,000mls ago and it is now back in with no oil pressure. the other also has a snapped timing chain. both serviced to spec on the dot.