What are grain prices going to do?

[Bignor Farmer]

Of course nobody really knows despite what they’ll try and tell you but does anyone fancy a guess? (with some attempt at reasoning please)

On the bullish side traders tell us that the funds are short and getting nervous about US planting conditions... BUT
On the bearish side they tell us US farmers don’t want to plant soya because of Trumps trade war so grain plantings will go up if they can get them in.
I’ve also heard Black Sea OK but not amazing and Russia OK but who knows?

I’d guess that the downside might be as low as £125/t feed wheat X farm Nov and the upside perhaps £155/t.

I think I’ve just talked myself into taking some cover at £140!

 

[teslacoils]

I'm selling nothing until its all in the shed.

 

[H.Jackson]

I got the £140 offer this morning said I'd wait and see. A lot of heavy rain on fresh planted and in planted acres in US plus ground water reserves in eastern Europe must be low? Plus I've already got plenty of sales made for now.

 

[DRC]

I was offered £146.50 for Nov. Still didn’t take it. Who knows.

 

[Bignor Farmer]

Everyone’s quite bullish at the moment then?

 

[DRC]

Everyone’s quite bullish at the moment then?

Or daft. There’s people on here that didn’t sell in the £190s last year. That is daft in my opinion

 

[warksfarmer]

Depends on Brexit for this little island as the pound may devalue over night.

 

[Chae1]

Or daft. There’s people on here that didn’t sell in the £190s last year. That is daft in my opinion

I'm one of the daft ones.

 

[farmerm]

Bet it all on black
or maybe red
or evens
or odds
or Mr Pie Eye at the 3.45 at Kempton.

Any one of those events is much more predictable than the direction of grain markets. Even traders who do nothing but predict commodity movements get it wrong. There is always an element of known unknowns that can be factored in, but it is the unknown unknowns that either surprise or catch out even the best commodity traders. When it comes to selling grain sometimes it is better to be lucky than to be smart

 

[Oh bullocks]

Or daft. There’s people on here that didn’t sell in the £190s last year. That is daft in my opinion

Spot on. One person I remember saying he wasn't going to open up his shed doors while he got £200 November. He must be sat on some tonnes of wheat. Greed is dangerous

 

[DRC]

Everyone’s quite bullish at the moment then?

It’s firmed again. Just been offered £151 Nov feed wheat.
Decisions, decisions.

 

[farmerm]

I tend to be lucky about half the time

It’s firmed again. Just been offered £151 Nov feed wheat.
Decisions, decisions.

Has spot firmed too?

 

[DRC]

I tend to be lucky about half the time

Has spot firmed too?

Don’t know . I have nothing left to sell.

 

[MrNoo]

I think it will rise, much like it did last year, a few weather scares, funds jump in and off it goes. Maybe completely wrong but just feel it will. Nowt sold forward here, 3 loads of last year's still to move, which will be the cheapest wheat sold from last year's harvest. I reckon we'll be seeing £170/t Nov.
Crops here look as good as they ever have done but need a decent drink.

 

[Qman]

Or daft. There’s people on here that didn’t sell in the £190s last year. That is daft in my opinion

We were assured by the experts on this site that wheat would be near £300. So we waited and caught a cold.

I will never listen to an expert ever again, they know nothing.

 

[Steevo]

I think it will rise, much like it did last year, a few weather scares, funds jump in and off it goes. Maybe completely wrong but just feel it will. Nowt sold forward here, 3 loads of last year's still to move, which will be the cheapest wheat sold from last year's harvest. I reckon we'll be seeing £170/t Nov.
Crops here look as good as they ever have done but need a decent drink.

It seems rare prices are high and drift lower. The trade rarely talk it up at the start of the season.

It’s rare for crops to turn out better than the trade hope.

 

[Chae1]

We were assured by the experts on this site that wheat would be near £300. So we waited and caught a cold.

I will never listen to an expert ever again, they know nothing.

I was guilty of that too.

Was told feed barley would be £200/t by Xmas! So held onto it. Was about £170/t. Still a good price. Now be lucky if i got £150.

Just planted more malting barley in springtime. So will use it ourselves.

Just a lesson learnt. If it gets to those prices again sell, and don't be greedy.

 

[bobk]

I'm one of the daft ones.

Me too .

 

[Chae1]

I blame Clive. He said he wasn't selling.

 

[Spud]

Spot today £152 ex farm.

I have two simple rules for selling wheat:

You're never wrong selling over £150/t
If it gets close to £200/t, sell the lot!!

So far I've sold 1.5t/ac at an average of £154/t for September 19, and two loads at £152 iirc for September 2020.
Last year my average wheat price was £182. Don't think I'll get near that this year!