wheat price and your predictions for what it will hit

Pan mixer

Member
Mixed Farmer
Location
Near Colchester
It certainly feels that £300 is the new parity. Where is all the news to drop it below that? Not a lot of it about really.

I don't think £300 is going to be outrageous in the future to be honest. There will be a lot of pressure to try and get it to drop around harvest in Europe and it probably will until the dust settles
Bought a load today 285 delivered, seems like a lot to me.
 

Goweresque

Member
Location
North Wilts
It certainly feels that £300 is the new parity. Where is all the news to drop it below that? Not a lot of it about really.

I don't think £300 is going to be outrageous in the future to be honest. There will be a lot of pressure to try and get it to drop around harvest in Europe and it probably will until the dust settles

There is huge political risk in wheat prices right now. All it will take is there to be a negotiated settlement in Ukraine and the bottom will fall out of the wheat market. Yes, actually getting grain out of there will be difficult for some time even if it was all over tomorrow, but the markets will react very sharply to a de-risking of the region.
 

som farmer

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
somerset
The state of my crops this year I could do with £400/t but I do worry for the livestock and poultry industry if it’s that 😬
in cattle conc, if the price of grain rises, they increase the price to match, then reduce the amount of corn included. barstewards.
however, they must be happier looking at forward supplies, forward contracts of just over £400, but l must admit, feeling smug, we put 30 acres of wheat and barley in, winter conc prices for us, will be pretty well paid up front !
 
There is huge political risk in wheat prices right now. All it will take is there to be a negotiated settlement in Ukraine and the bottom will fall out of the wheat market. Yes, actually getting grain out of there will be difficult for some time even if it was all over tomorrow, but the markets will react very sharply to a de-risking of the region.


Only in the short term.

Fertiliser prices are bad in the UK, however in the 3rd world they are unaffordable.

Next years harvest is going to be significantly down no matter what happens, money is being spent now if it exists on reserving and delivering next years fertiliser. That fertiliser takes so many months to make and be delivered - which requires money to be spent on gas and mining equipment.

The game almost up for next year with no Western government stepping up to the plate.

If next years crops are poor in combination with low fertiliser usage, then it could lead to a very significant human disaster.
 

glasshouse

Member
Location
lothians
Only in the short term.

Fertiliser prices are bad in the UK, however in the 3rd world they are unaffordable.

Next years harvest is going to be significantly down no matter what happens, money is being spent now if it exists on reserving and delivering next years fertiliser. That fertiliser takes so many months to make and be delivered - which requires money to be spent on gas and mining equipment.

The game almost up for next year with no Western government stepping up to the plate.

If next years crops are poor in combination with low fertiliser usage, then it could lead to a very significant human disaster.
Its all part of the plan
 

som farmer

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
somerset
Only in the short term.

Fertiliser prices are bad in the UK, however in the 3rd world they are unaffordable.

Next years harvest is going to be significantly down no matter what happens, money is being spent now if it exists on reserving and delivering next years fertiliser. That fertiliser takes so many months to make and be delivered - which requires money to be spent on gas and mining equipment.

The game almost up for next year with no Western government stepping up to the plate.

If next years crops are poor in combination with low fertiliser usage, then it could lead to a very significant human disaster.
l agree, unfortuantly it will take a disaster, that is about to happen, before guvs realise that food production, is really quite important, and should be treated with respect, something sadly lacking at the moment.
But it isn't only 3rd world countries that will face serious price hikes, or starve, it will also affect us, in the Western countries. Food inflation is already hitting home, and we know, from our costs, it will keep rising, quite a long way, to go yet.
This is a real problem, and our guv is sleepwalking into it, l rather suspect the s/mkts are as well, every time 'food' gets short, they up the price, production increases, and they drop the price. There are simply to many negatives out there, to start increasing production, by the amounts needed, it isn't going to happen, nor can food be imported, at the price they believe it will be available at, if it is available at all. Many food exporting countries, don't give a toss about their poor, until food riots change their minds.
The next problem, is how can the guv, help to lessen the costs of energy and food, to the consumer, basically it can't, without massive intervention, which, l doubt it can afford. At the same time, spending by the consumer, will be focused on food and energy, to the loss of other industries, demand for many taxable goods, will drop like a stone, consumers simply will not have the spare money.

Then there is climate change, and the raft of legislation, that will soon be arriving. The big problem with that, is it works towards reducing production, when increased production is needed.
One really has to admire boris, he's fought to keep his job, when most sensible people would run a mile to get out ! On the other hand, he has inspired people to cope, and solve, some massive problems, ie covid, and one could say, Ukraine. Lets just hope he can solve these coming issues, with the same inspiration he has, with some, others, because we have him for another year or two.
 
One really has to admire boris, he's fought to keep his job, when most sensible people would run a mile to get out ! On the other hand, he has inspired people to cope, and solve, some massive problems, ie covid, and one could say, Ukraine. Lets just hope he can solve these coming issues, with the same inspiration he has, with some, others, because we have him for another year or two.


The UK doesnt have a gas shortage - the problem is commodities are based on world prices.

Fertiliser in the UK could be solved by reserving gas for that purpose, same in other western countries.

However, the UK government has gone out of its way to reduce both capacity of production and storage - is it because Westminster is stupid or clever - clever in a bad sense.

Boris is toast no matter he does. Hopefully Climate Policy goes with him.
 

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HSENI names new farm safety champions

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Written by William Kellett from Agriland

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The Health and Safety Executive for Northern Ireland (HSENI) alongside the Farm Safety Partnership (FSP), has named new farm safety champions and commended the outstanding work on farm safety that has been carried out in the farming community in the last 20 years.

Two of these champions are Malcom Downey, retired principal inspector for the Agri/Food team in HSENI and Harry Sinclair, current chair of the Farm Safety Partnership and former president of the Ulster Farmers’ Union (UFU).

Improving farm safety is the key aim of HSENI’s and the FSP’s work and...
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