Will Putin invade ?

[Tubbylew]

Well what about this?
Let him move into Ukraine unopposed if he wants to. Lives and infrastructure saved. International condemnation and moral outrage. Putin as a pariah leader confirmed globally.
He now has the job of keeping a whole country full of fairly angry people supressed, something which will stretch his resources like they have never been stretched before. Tanks aren't that useful against pop up terrorists.
The folks in Belarus and indeed in Russia itself who are equally as peed off with his regime now face a more diluted suppressive force and the chance of him being overthrown from within increase greatly.
Meanwhile the West gradually stops buying his gas, and freezes all financial support possible. This adds to further discontent within his "empire". Those around him at the top, losing their personnel wealth, start to question the strategy of their leader.
NATO builds forces in Eastern Europe like they've never been built before with full moral justification and international support and isolates him in his now large but almost ungovernable bankrupt failing state.
More than one way to skin a cat.
Call his bluff.

Sounds cool, unless your ukrainian.

 

[DrWazzock]

The problem is these angry people won’t be expressing their anger with a strongly worded letter to the Times and the Russians won’t be controlling these angry people by issuing ASBOs and fixed penalty notices. I reckon they’ll behave a bit like the last invaders of the Ukraine.

No they'll be using the considerable amount of arms that have been supplied to them already in a terrorist / bandit capacity, rather than wasting them by standing in front of an advancing tank division.

You seem to think an on-going civil war will be bloodless and less destructive than a rapid campaign where Russian forces are smashed by NATO air power and a briars patch of Ukrainian anti armour ambushes?

As soon as NATO air power is used against the Russian army, Russian air power will used against Western European targets. Then its WW3.

 

[oil barron]

Sounds cool, unless your ukrainian.

They’re fuqed whatever happens.

 

[DrWazzock]

Sounds cool, unless your ukrainian.

And how do you propose to stop a Russian advance without laying waste to Ukraine and killing or displacing millions? That doesn't sound very cool for Ukrainians either.

 

[Tubbylew]

They’re fuqed whatever happens.

Sad but true

 

[DrWazzock]

They’re fuqed whatever happens.

Sadly yes. Its only the degree of it that can perhaps be changed now.

 

[DrWazzock]

Well actually the policy I outlined above is the current Western policy espoused by Biden, Johnson, NATO et al. It's the policy because there is no credible alternative that wouldn't make the situation 10 times worse.
Talk of "going in" to help Ukraine is fanciful nonsense. It won't help anybody.
Wish it would but it won't.
Suck it up.

 

[oil barron]

Sadly yes. Its only the degree of it that can perhaps be changed now.

They have been stuck in no man’s land for 10 years now. The GDP per capita is something like $3k per head and not growing. Even countries like Belarus and Moldova are moving on. Such a shame when they have the best soil in the world.

 

[David.]

Noticeable how the poll sentiment has changed...
Putin is still gauging if The West is up for it; or if the idiots who have made themselves reliant on him for keeping them warm, or to underpin the Knightsbridge property market, will look the other way as he marches in.

 

[JohnGalway]

Spot on

I think if I was an American taxpayer I might wonder why their troops are over here to help secure the freedom for so many on TFF that seem completely ungrateful.

I'm one Brit / Scot that's grateful to our American military friends backing us up.

There's always a bigger fish out there. Europe and North America need each other. We share similar ways of life and need to protect that from the Putin's and Xi's of the world. Unfortunately Ireland doesn't take security seriously. I believe we should, and should be part of NATO also, even if as a location to base naval and air assets.

Am I the only one worried about the age of the leaders in question. It is a bit worrying Putin is nearly 70 and Biden is 80 at that age people are usually wondering about where they left the TV remote not trying to start world war 3.
( note to world leaders the remote is in the fridge next to your car keys)

I doubt you are. I'd be confident Biden has plenty of serious advisors, but who knows about Putin. There have been many iffy reports about a narrowing circle around a self isolating (long tables even for his ministers, most meetings done via technology) secret policeman who's sh!t scared of Covid.

He invaded Georgia in 08, Crimea in 14, been in power since 99 or 00. He's 70 now, how heavy does his legacy and longing for the Soviet Union weigh on him.

 

[Tubbylew]

And how do you propose to stop a Russian advance without laying waste to Ukraine and killing or displacing millions? That doesn't sound very cool for Ukrainians either.

There is precious little you can do, sanctions don't work much, ukraine isn't in NATO so direct military action is out of the question, but you can't let an independent nations security policy be vetoed by the kremlin. There are no good options besides maybe hopeing that vlad sees sense.

 

[DrWazzock]

Does anybody seriously think that NATO can engage directly with Russian forces on territory that was a key part of the USSR without the situation escalating to such an extent that Western Europe isn’t reduced to rubble within a fortnight. We might be morally right but what are we are left with?

 

[ollie989898]

Does anybody seriously think that NATO can engage directly with Russian forces on territory that was a key part of the USSR without the situation escalating to such an extent that Western Europe isn’t reduced to rubble within a fortnight. We might be morally right but what are we are left with?

It's not USSR territory. It's Ukrainian territory.

NATO have allies all around the region. British and American troops train in these countries. Putin will be savaged.

 

[neilo]

Well what about this?
Let him move into Ukraine unopposed if he wants to. Lives and infrastructure saved. International condemnation and moral outrage. Putin as a pariah leader confirmed globally.
He now has the job of keeping a whole country full of fairly angry people supressed, something which will stretch his resources like they have never been stretched before. Tanks aren't that useful against pop up terrorists.
The folks in Belarus and indeed in Russia itself who are equally as peed off with his regime now face a more diluted suppressive force and the chance of him being overthrown from within increase greatly.
Meanwhile the West gradually stops buying his gas, and freezes all financial support possible. This adds to further discontent within his "empire". Those around him at the top, losing their personnel wealth, start to question the strategy of their leader.
NATO builds forces in Eastern Europe like they've never been built before with full moral justification and international support and isolates him in his now large but almost ungovernable bankrupt failing state.
More than one way to skin a cat.
Call his bluff.

That's likely what will happen when he does invade. NATO aren't looking at putting ground troops into Ukraine, or they would be there in huge numbers already. He will invade, advancing at great speed, hence the numbers of troops he's amassed ready. The Ukrainians will fight like (heavily armed) dogs and will continue fighting, long after a puppet govt has been installed.

The West will impose punitive sanctions, which is all they are looking at doing now, whilst the bloodshed continues in a Ukrainian civil war. Putin will be about as much of a pariah as he is now.

Roll on a few years, if he's still alive (he's 70, and time is running out to build his legacy of a renewed USSR), he will be emboldened and start looking at the other ex-USSR states.

 

[DrWazzock]

Noticeable how the poll sentiment has changed...
Putin is still gauging if The West is up for it; or if the idiots who have made themselves reliant on him for keeping them warm, or to underpin the Knightsbridge property market, will look the other way as he marches in.

Cannot understand why the “golden visas” for Russian billionaires were ever allowed. It’s obvious it’s ill gotten gains.

 

[Lowland1]

They’re fuqed whatever happens.

We all are if we allow this to happen. China will be watching this carefully and if the west prevaricate the they’ll be into Taiwan and anywhere else they fancy like the bits of Australia with minerals and don’t forget North Korea. This has dragged on because there was a feeble response at first if Europe had stood up as one earlier then it would have just been maneuvers and war games and the troops would be back to base. Plus it great for all the crooks in the city making money on futures and the like. Nothing better than a bit of a crisis to make some money off the back of.

 

[ollie989898]

Cannot understand why the “golden visas” for Russian billionaires were ever allowed. It’s obvious it’s ill gotten gains.

If a Russian national wants to put his money in the UK then I don't see any difference between them, a Chinese or American businessman- it's all ill gotten gains if you are a billionaire anyway.

 

[JohnGalway]

We all are if we allow this to happen. China will be watching this carefully and if the west prevaricate the they’ll be into Taiwan and anywhere else they fancy like the bits of Australia with minerals and don’t forget North Korea. This has dragged on because there was a feeble response at first if Europe had stood up as one earlier then it would have just been maneuvers and war games and the troops would be back to base. Plus it great for all the crooks in the city making money on futures and the like. Nothing better than a bit of a crisis to make some money off the back of.

Chinese FM (I think) has said Ukraine's integrity should be respected, a war isn't in their favour as their customers then have less money to spend.

 

[BrianV]

What a smack in the eye this has been for the EU, we have the sight of Macron & the German leader proposing to take Grampa Biden along to hold their hands as that nasty Mr Putin won't take any notice of them if he's not there.
Why Macron & Herr whoever, shouldn't it be the head of we are told the biggest strongest group of countries this world have ever seen, ie the EU boss meeting Putin not Macron & Herr whoever.
Doesn't this just show that Germany with no discernible army actually with it's tame poodle along talks as the effective boss of the EU as has been obvious all along, after all who needs an army when you can control & dictate to pretty much the whole of Europe without one!

 

[neilo]

What a smack in the eye this has been for the EU, we have the sight of Macron & the German leader proposing to take Grampa Biden along to hold their hands as that nasty Mr Putin won't take any notice of them if he's not there.
Why Macron & Herr whoever, shouldn't it be the head of we are told the biggest strongest group of countries this world have ever seen, ie the EU boss meeting Putin not Macron & Herr whoever.
Doesn't this just show that Germany with no discernible army actually with it's tame poodle along talks as the effective boss of the EU as has been obvious all along, after all who needs an army when you can control & dictate to pretty much the whole of Europe without one!

Surely this has nothing to do with any anti-EU spiel. They are, quite rightly, acting together as members of NATO.