oil barron
Member
- Location
- Aberdeenshire
Looks like they got it right. If other countries had been bold enough to try it we could have avoided an economic catastrophy.
Sweden
- Thread starter oil barron
- Start date
- Location
- LINCOLNSHIRE/KENYA
I would agree. Quite a few people on here believe due to its low population density Sweden and the U.K are incomparable but population densities in the towns and cities is not so different. I think the government wanted to go this way but once people started to die then the media both mainstream and social started to squeal and you got the stories that 500,000 or more could die etc and the French etc threatening to close borders because of the U.K's stance so they backtracked. The problem has been all of the affects of this virus were unknown so no one knew what would happen so the easiest option is to frighten the population into going into hiding. If you were reading the newspapers at the start of the outbreak deaths were reported by age and underlying health conditions as the numbers increased very little has been reported about the demographics of the deceased which would indicate to the general population who is most at risk. I feel this is to overwhelm people with a sense of fear rather than inform. Information helps protect those who most need protecting. The problem is Government's reactions are more about protecting themselves from the voters.
Hindsight
Member
- Location
- Lincolnshire
Fallout starts
And John Lewis, bastion retailer looks to leave sites.
www.thetimes.co.uk
Coronavirus: Plane-maker Airbus furloughs 3,200 staff
In a letter to workers Chief Executive Guillaume Faury said the firm's existence was now threatened.
www.bbc.co.uk
And John Lewis, bastion retailer looks to leave sites.
John Lewis seeks outside backer for services move
The John Lewis Partnership is exploring whether it should bring in an outside investor to help to finance and launch a joint venture that would reduce its reliance on retailing. It is also considering never reopening some of its less viable department stores after the national lockdown ends.The step
www.thetimes.co.uk
- Location
- Ceredigion
Our problem all along is our people, they see on the news people dying in great numbers . They know why people are dying, then go out in great numbers and do just that
Are they thick or do they think they are immortal
Thats why looking at data from other countries is a waste of time
Are they thick or do they think they are immortal
Thats why looking at data from other countries is a waste of time
Exfarmer
Member
- Location
- Bury St Edmunds
I have posted before, the Swedish data is tootally incomparable to ours. They have 3 towns and cities over 100, 000 people. We have 95
their largest City Stockholm is 1/9the size of London with all the implications for long urban mass transport travel.
They also have the worlds highest proportion of single house occupancy, which means if you catch it at work you dont gohome to pass it to partner, who then takes it to their work.
finally their death rate is still going upwards.
their largest City Stockholm is 1/9the size of London with all the implications for long urban mass transport travel.
They also have the worlds highest proportion of single house occupancy, which means if you catch it at work you dont gohome to pass it to partner, who then takes it to their work.
finally their death rate is still going upwards.
- Location
- LINCOLNSHIRE/KENYA
T
That's absolute rubbish. If proper analysis of data is carried out it allows you assess the groups most at risk and devise a strategy to protect them . In this case the people most at risk are the over sixties those with existing medical conditions such as diabetes and obesity etc so you isolate them everyone else can get on.What we are seeing with this virus is the use of fear to control populations. Actually if brexit was project fear Co Vid 19 is project terror.
farmerm
Member
- Location
- Shropshire
Pre-lockdown, like several other locked down European countries, our daily deaths was doubling every 3-4 days. Tell me, how was that trend going to stop without taking some drastic action? The UK gov watched and waited as long as they dare. There are many who think lockdown was unnecessary, there are many others who believe it was left too long. Personally if the best information the government had is the same as in the public domain they got it about right.
farmerm
Member
- Location
- Shropshire
I am afraid 500,000 deaths is still not beyond the realms of what is possible! We are now around 30,000 deaths for less than 5% of population infected.
farmerm
Member
- Location
- Shropshire
It’s proven to be very hard to properly isolate those over 60. Allow a higher number to become infected in the less vulnerable population and a lot more vulnerable people will die. This is not some global conspiracy invented to impose control over populations though fear, on the contrary, it is elected Governments who are being controlled by fear!!
- Location
- LINCOLNSHIRE/KENYA
Until it's all over no one will know which was the correct course of action. However in my opinion hiding away is the wrong course of action you protect your vulnerable citizens and get on as best you can. The Swedish model is good you use social distancing limit crowds etc . Maybe they will end up with a higher death rate but their economy will recover quicker which isn't just about money but it allows a country's social fabric to continue.
farmerm
Member
- Location
- Shropshire
I agreed when this first started.. then I realised that unlike in Sweden, in our densely populated areas, adequate social distancing simply isn’t possible without taking additional measures to reduce how many people are out and about!
beardface
Member
- Location
- East Yorkshire
When Germany did a small scale study on infection rate a fortnight ago they were shocked to find 15% of this sampled had the virus with most being mildly or asymptomatic. I'd say we're probably nearer 20-25% infection rate along with the rest of Europe. When we get to 60% we're at herd immunity. The quicker we get there the better as no one knows how long immunity lasts. Ideally if we could reach 60% by the Autumn whilst the RO is low over the summer and the health service can cope and have time yo explore better treatment options, i. e. putting people on C-PAP as soon as thry come in, then the virus in theory will disappear by the ebd of the year.
matthew
Member
- Location
- Cornwall, SW England
Controlling disease is really quite basic.
You either take the disease out of the population at large - by testing, isolating positives, tracing contacts and repeating. The positives being isolated to prevent spread in 'isolation' facilities, NOT general hospitals or care homes.
Or you lock down the population away from potential disease. i. e prevent them encountering it until it has burnt out.
We have neither system in place.
Lockdown only applies to some, and is being broken now as people get bored and travel hundreds of miles to second homes. Goods and services are on hold, stopping 'essential' industries from operating.
Our SARS-CoV-2 testing facilities in the UK have been and still are, abysmal.
Little tracing has been done for months. Everything is done by PHE in London, while many areas of the country would benefit from a local test / trace programme.
Patients are still being treated in general hospitals, with cross contamination rife.
Patients have been sent home at a moment's notice to care homes and cottage hospitals, with symptoms or even positive diagnoses.
Thus while some areas in the UK are recording low numbers of cases, our NHS run hospitals, care homes, hostels, prisons etc. are a festering hotbed, seeding infection back out into the community as staff and visitors mingle. And the much vaunted 'Nightingale' isolation facilities remain unused.
You either take the disease out of the population at large - by testing, isolating positives, tracing contacts and repeating. The positives being isolated to prevent spread in 'isolation' facilities, NOT general hospitals or care homes.
Or you lock down the population away from potential disease. i. e prevent them encountering it until it has burnt out.
We have neither system in place.
Lockdown only applies to some, and is being broken now as people get bored and travel hundreds of miles to second homes. Goods and services are on hold, stopping 'essential' industries from operating.
Our SARS-CoV-2 testing facilities in the UK have been and still are, abysmal.
Little tracing has been done for months. Everything is done by PHE in London, while many areas of the country would benefit from a local test / trace programme.
Patients are still being treated in general hospitals, with cross contamination rife.
Patients have been sent home at a moment's notice to care homes and cottage hospitals, with symptoms or even positive diagnoses.
Thus while some areas in the UK are recording low numbers of cases, our NHS run hospitals, care homes, hostels, prisons etc. are a festering hotbed, seeding infection back out into the community as staff and visitors mingle. And the much vaunted 'Nightingale' isolation facilities remain unused.
Having a low population density may help but it not going to be a huge difference. I live in the least densely populated part of the uk and bugs spread through here all the time.
People travel and bring it back to the village, then people in the village go yo pubs and restaurants and visit each others houses.
Currently the old people in my local area are getting the reputation for doing what they like. My neighbour in her 80s had another old person visiting a few days ago. People out on the street talking in groups.
Without lock down cronavirus will go through our area like wildfire. With it, it will be slower but it will still happen. Just because you have low population does not mean we all live in isolation. We all mix and socialise as much as those in big cities
People travel and bring it back to the village, then people in the village go yo pubs and restaurants and visit each others houses.
Currently the old people in my local area are getting the reputation for doing what they like. My neighbour in her 80s had another old person visiting a few days ago. People out on the street talking in groups.
Without lock down cronavirus will go through our area like wildfire. With it, it will be slower but it will still happen. Just because you have low population does not mean we all live in isolation. We all mix and socialise as much as those in big cities
Exfarmer
Member
- Location
- Bury St Edmunds
I think the biggest telling point is watching public transport, The village buses that go through here are socially isolated at peak period before this started. Have you never travelled on the tube in London? If you put livestock in a lorry like that , you would be in the nick before you had got 5 miles
You are probably with in 2 metres of 10/15 people, all breathing in each others exhalation, then in the evenings its all rammed in the latest bar before heading home having been in close contact with hundreds of people, and some quite intimately if you struck lucky A little different to a pair of old folk talking in the village shop
farmerm
Member
- Location
- Shropshire
At fist look that sounds positive and it will be great if it is representative. Dig a bit deeper and it is perhaps not such good news. The German study you refer to was in a town that has the highest number of known cases in Germany so we should expect the proportion of people who have been infected here be much greater than the national figure average. From the news report I am looking at that study showed the mortality rate of the virus in that town to be 0.37%... Now 0.37% of the UK population is 244,000 even if the virus transmissions ends at 60% of the population infected that's still 146,000 deaths! Even if your estimate of 20% infected is correct then that still means the death toll will increase by another 200% by the time we reach the 60% herd immunity number, so 40,000 CV related deaths now would equate to 120,000 deaths by the point we reach 60% infected. Either way the current death toll now will look small compared to the final count! For me the really useful number in evaluating the value of lockdown would be to know how much the mortality figure is reduced by keeping the number of cases presenting at hospital within the capacity to provide treatment. Recycling the 120,000 deaths figure... Does lockdown just mean we end up with 120,000 CV related deaths spread out over 6 months and a destroyed economy, rather than 121,000 deaths in 6 weeks whilst maintain business as usual?
- Location
- Aberdeenshire
Do we actually know what the %infected needs to be for herd immunity to be? For measles is 95%. Not sure we know enough about Corvid 19 to know yet. We don’t even know how long people will be immune after catching it.
farmerm
Member
- Location
- Shropshire
Epidemiologist can make a good estimate with sufficient data, it comes down to a combination of factors.... largely how long a person is infections for and how transmissible the virus is between people... the longer someone is infectious and the more transmittable the virus then the higher the point where herd immunity takes effect. Herd immunity does not occur at a specific certain value, its a question of probability, the more people who are immune the harder it is for a pathogen to find itself in a new susceptible host. Someone in the small group not immune to measles can still be infected if they are unlucky enough to come into contact with someone else with measles.
Not only do we not know how long people become immune for after catching this virus but I don't think scientists are even sure that infection results in the patient developing any significant immunity.
ollie989898
Member
Sweden is not comparable. Just London alone has a population not far off that of the whole of Sweden!
- Location
- Aberdeenshire
I fully understand epidemiology. I was merely querying why people are quoting a 60% figure when we don’t have a clue. As you said there will be various models done at different levels to try and predict, but we just don’t know enough. You are correct once a herd immunity level has been reached there is still a small population who can still catch it however the theory is there is not enough so the virus dies out.