Sweden

Looks like they got it right. If other countries had been bold enough to try it we could have avoided an economic catastrophy.

This is at least the fourth thread holding up Sweden as having "got it right". Repeats, repeats. So, I will repeat, repeat for at least the fourth time too:-

Sweden and Portugal have similar populations of over 10million. They are similar too in that there are tracts of virtually uninhabitated areas (Sweden's being larger) and several large centres of population, with the rest being spread around the country.

As of yesterday there were approximately 900 deaths in Portugal and 2200 in Sweden.

Which country got it right????????
 

Farmer Fin

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Aberdeenshire
Herd immunity- there is no evidence this is even a thing. Experts are far from convinced that people who have recovered from the disease cannot catch it again and there is still lingering questions about how long they remain infectious. This is a novel virus that has not appeared in humans before, don't expect it to play by the rules.
Yes there is we know that diseases can be eradicated by achieving a level of vaccination. Polio etc. It is novel to a degree but has severely closely related viruses. The issue is probably more the unpredictability of human nature!
 
Yes there is we know that diseases can be eradicated by achieving a level of vaccination. Polio etc. It is novel to a degree but has severely closely related viruses. The issue is probably more the unpredictability of human nature!

Some diseases can be sorted- others do not appear to play ball- HIV is one, influenza is another. This corona virus is probably of animal origin and so the human race will have had zippo contact with it previously, how it behaves is anyone's guess.
 

Lowland1

Member
Mixed Farmer
This is at least the fourth thread holding up Sweden as having "got it right". Repeats, repeats. So, I will repeat, repeat for at least the fourth time too:-

Sweden and Portugal have similar populations of over 10million. They are similar too in that there are tracts of virtually uninhabitated areas (Sweden's being larger) and several large centres of population, with the rest being spread around the country.

As of yesterday there were approximately 900 deaths in Portugal and 2200 in Sweden.

Which country got it right????????
Sweden because they are getting on with their lives in a better manner and probably causing less damage to their economy which will recover quicker and cause less harm to the country in the future. 900 or 2000 deaths out of 10 million do the maths its still a small percentage of the population and Portugal will no doubt get another spike in deaths at a later date as less people have been exposed to this virus. But who really knows? Not me.
 

DrWazzock

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Lincolnshire
Sweden because they are getting on with their lives in a better manner and probably causing less damage to their economy which will recover quicker and cause less harm to the country in the future. 900 or 2000 deaths out of 10 million do the maths its still a small percentage of the population and Portugal will no doubt get another spike in deaths at a later date as less people have been exposed to this virus. But who really knows? Not me.

Lockdown will gradually relax by default more than anything. Most people will continue to take sensible precautions where possible if they value their own lives and those of friends and family. Some people either can’t or won’t avoid taking risks so the death rate will rumble on for some time at around 500 per day. The economy will get moving again pretty soon but possibly with a change in emphasis to more online trade, remote working, etc where possible. It’s kind of evolutionary. Personally I’d be avoiding mass gatherings or minglings for a while particularly where you are up close to people for a considerable time. I think that increases the viral loading on your system which has a much bigger detrimental effect on the outcome than a fleeting encounter.
 
Lockdown will gradually relax by default more than anything. Most people will continue to take sensible precautions where possible if they value their own lives and those of friends and family. Some people either can’t or won’t avoid taking risks so the death rate will rumble on for some time at around 500 per day. The economy will get moving again pretty soon but possibly with a change in emphasis to more online trade, remote working, etc where possible. It’s kind of evolutionary. Personally I’d be avoiding mass gatherings or minglings for a while particularly where you are up close to people for a considerable time. I think that increases the viral loading on your system which has a much bigger detrimental effect on the outcome than a fleeting encounter.

I tend to agree, but there is no way I will be going to any mass meeting or getting on an aircraft any time soon.
 

honeyend

Member
Herd immunity- there is no evidence this is even a thing. Experts are far from convinced that people who have recovered from the disease cannot catch it again and there is still lingering questions about how long they remain infectious. This is a novel virus that has not appeared in humans before, don't expect it to play by the rules.

I can no see life returning to pre CV for a long time. One gathering with one infected person and it all starts again.
 

farmerm

Member
Location
Shropshire
I fully understand epidemiology. I was merely querying why people are quoting a 60% figure when we don’t have a clue. As you said there will be various models done at different levels to try and predict, but we just don’t know enough. You are correct once a herd immunity level has been reached there is still a small population who can still catch it however the theory is there is not enough so the virus dies out.
If we accept the R value originally was 2.5, no one had immunity from previously being infected and each infected person on average infected 2.5 others... it would be a reasonable assumption that once 50% have been infected, and assuming infection results in immunity, then all else being equal the R value would be cut in half to 1.25, insufficient to wipe out the Virus. Of course we now have measures that have reduced the R value. The more effective these social distancing measures are at minimising the R value the lower the level at which we will start to benefit from herd immunity.
 

oil barron

Member
Location
Aberdeenshire
This is at least the fourth thread holding up Sweden as having "got it right". Repeats, repeats. So, I will repeat, repeat for at least the fourth time too:-

Sweden and Portugal have similar populations of over 10million. They are similar too in that there are tracts of virtually uninhabitated areas (Sweden's being larger) and several large centres of population, with the rest being spread around the country.

As of yesterday there were approximately 900 deaths in Portugal and 2200 in Sweden.

Which country got it right????????

we are not finnished yet though.

everyone talks about flattening the curve, but that also means lengthening the curve. The original idea of flattening the curve was to stay below hospital ICU capacity. I don’t buy that it reduces the total number of deaths in the long term. Everything I have read, unless we can develop vacine, it is more likely that the virus will completely disappear if it is allowed to burn through.

we are all going to end up in A Sweden situation anyway in a few weeks time as people get fed up, and governments run out of cash. We could have just gone straight there and saved the economy.
 

honeyend

Member
we are not finnished yet though.

everyone talks about flattening the curve, but that also means lengthening the curve. The original idea of flattening the curve was to stay below hospital ICU capacity. I don’t buy that it reduces the total number of deaths in the long term. Everything I have read, unless we can develop vacine, it is more likely that the virus will completely disappear if it is allowed to burn through.

we are all going to end up in A Sweden situation anyway in a few weeks time as people get fed up, and governments run out of cash. We could have just gone straight there and saved the economy.
The people with the most disposable income are the 'grey' pound, even my daughter who sells in a young area, her customers are over fourty. So to get the economy moving in all the retail and hospitality industry, you have to give your customers security that they are not going to become infected. Older people tend to shop local, buy or eat out on a regular basis and spend a bit more. The 'spoons used to be full of people in a morning, you couldn't get a seat hardly at lunch, of the over 50's and older. They would also do their shopping in local shops.
So its not just about flattening the curve, its about reducing risk and customer confidence. I have money to spend but I will not risk my health for someone elses profit, so I guess we will be hunkered down for the long term.
 

oil barron

Member
Location
Aberdeenshire
The people with the most disposable income are the 'grey' pound, even my daughter who sells in a young area, her customers are over fourty. So to get the economy moving in all the retail and hospitality industry, you have to give your customers security that they are not going to become infected. Older people tend to shop local, buy or eat out on a regular basis and spend a bit more. The 'spoons used to be full of people in a morning, you couldn't get a seat hardly at lunch, of the over 50's and older. They would also do their shopping in local shops.
So its not just about flattening the curve, its about reducing risk and customer confidence. I have money to spend but I will not risk my health for someone elses profit, so I guess we will be hunkered down for the long term.

ok boomer. So while the future of the country waits to be drip fed its living allowance in coffee shop tips the rest of the world advances and pushes the UK even further behind.
 

honeyend

Member
ok boomer. So while the future of the country waits to be drip fed its living allowance in coffee shop tips the rest of the world advances and pushes the UK even further behind.
Love it. I am quite capable of spending from home. Its a bit like a EHO food hygeine rating, who would you rather buy from or work with? Someone who cares about their customer and staff health or like the big processing hogg plant in the US, not give a dam.

Then there is the big problem that people of BAME seemed to be more affected, depending on the stats the make up 12% of NHS workforce. So are BAME UK less important than the young white population?

Always thoughtful and informative.
 

Lowland1

Member
Mixed Farmer
The people with the most disposable income are the 'grey' pound, even my daughter who sells in a young area, her customers are over fourty. So to get the economy moving in all the retail and hospitality industry, you have to give your customers security that they are not going to become infected. Older people tend to shop local, buy or eat out on a regular basis and spend a bit more. The 'spoons used to be full of people in a morning, you couldn't get a seat hardly at lunch, of the over 50's and older. They would also do their shopping in local shops.
So its not just about flattening the curve, its about reducing risk and customer confidence. I have money to spend but I will not risk my health for someone elses profit, so I guess we will be hunkered down for the long term.
If you are worried then obviously you should stay at home but the truth be told you may be sitting at home a long time. The rest of us well we need to try and get back to as close to normal as is possible and as soon as possible and while you say older people have a greater disposable income they also cost the country quite a lot to look after as well.
 

honeyend

Member
If you are worried then obviously you should stay at home but the truth be told you may be sitting at home a long time. The rest of us well we need to try and get back to as close to normal as is possible and as soon as possible and while you say older people have a greater disposable income they also cost the country quite a lot to look after as well.
I am not sure what you mean about costing the country a lot of money. If they have it they are still spending and paying tax on everything they buy and still paying tax on pensions if its big enough. If you look at older people they often cost the NHS the most in the last two years of life. Younger, usually sicker people cost the NHS more for longer, the disabled child that would have died 40 years ago, will now live until they are 50, with NHS and socail care support. They get more social funding than the old for care homes.

Every time someone puts forward a bill to actually pay more for health and socail care, especially if it comes out of income, or property assets its unpopular. I hope after this there will be a constructive discussion of how its funded , but remember we all we get old.
 

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