Biggest Recession since 1706

Ashtree

Member
There are no statistics on how many have been infected. They simply don't exist, only those who have been treated or died following a positive test. Remember the government advice? Don't go to your doctor or hospital unless you're really bad. Just stay home and self isolate.

Any figures quoted are just made up.

You just made that up. That’s the trouble with social media. Every kind of idiocity gets traction.
 

Brisel

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Midlands
You just made that up. That’s the trouble with social media. Every kind of idiocity gets traction.

Show me where the government says you have to report all suspected cases of the virus. Ringing 111 to ask about how to deal with symptoms does not guarantee a home visit and test to confirm it.

 

Lowland1

Member
Mixed Farmer
Show me where the government says you have to report all suspected cases of the virus. Ringing 111 to ask about how to deal with symptoms does not guarantee a home visit and test to confirm it.

Isn't that the problem generally people don't know if they have or haven't had it. The Government don't know who has or hasn't had it and i would guess are not sure in a lot of cases if people have died because of it or it was just a secondary factor. Therefore they put theur trust in a bunch of advisors for who this is a dream come true a Real Pandemic something they have hoped p always come along and now they can put all their theories into practice.
If you don't lockdown everybody's going to die . If you lockdown people still die but you can say ' Many more would have died if we didn't '
Still it's a good job I'm not advising the Government I'd be telling them let it run and we will see whose standing at the end.
 

som farmer

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
somerset
You just made that up. That’s the trouble with social media. Every kind of idiocity gets traction.
WHO has stated most tests used are only 70% accurate, with people with a mild dose, do not report it/visit doc, we certainly have friends in London, who have had really bad flu, or c19? With that information, what is the point of testing.
its the same with 'death' figures, numbers mean nothing, but horror, it is the death rate per 1000 that is the relevant.
The press have acted appallingly in this, they have caused panic, which, with the result, has forced guv to act. There is no right, or wrong way to cover this, because no one actually knows. Whatever the guv does, it's either not enough, or to much, they are on a loser whatever they do.
The guv, has acted quickly, to introduce some schemes, that are both radical and pro-active, to save the economy.
The sacrifice of wealth, for health, can only be a short term move, to keep health, you actually need wealth, the guvs pot of money, is not bottomless.
There is differing points of view over returning to work, guv saying for some businesses, return, result, not happy. After this, there will be a big rise in unemployment, i'm certain, if I were a boss, faced with making some staff redundant, the ones that made the effort, to get to work, would stay, them that didn't, unless a valid excuse, would be the first ones to go.
 

robs1

Member
So only 4% have been infected, and nearly 40,000 have died.
Crikey, this lockdown needs to continue indefinitely.
No one knows but if only 4 % have been infected it isnt that contagious is it so why have lockdown, also if only 4 % have had why are so many of the great and good had it, loads of really famous and not so famous have been tested positve so I think it's far more as why are they catching it when they are less likely to be in crowded tube trains etc, some of the ones we know who have had it are young and spend a lot of times in crowded bars etc dont think Duke of E or boris or tom Hanks do yet they all caught it
 

czechmate

Member
Mixed Farmer
No one knows but if only 4 % have been infected it isnt that contagious is it so why have lockdown, also if only 4 % have had why are so many of the great and good had it, loads of really famous and not so famous have been tested positve so I think it's far more as why are they catching it when they are less likely to be in crowded tube trains etc, some of the ones we know who have had it are young and spend a lot of times in crowded bars etc dont think Duke of E or boris or tom Hanks do yet they all caught it


The list of really famous people would be extraordinarily long...
 

farmerm

Member
Location
Shropshire
No one knows but if only 4 % have been infected it isnt that contagious is it so why have lockdown, also if only 4 % have had why are so many of the great and good had it, loads of really famous and not so famous have been tested positve so I think it's far more as why are they catching it when they are less likely to be in crowded tube trains etc, some of the ones we know who have had it are young and spend a lot of times in crowded bars etc dont think Duke of E or boris or tom Hanks do yet they all caught it

4% is the best estimate and the working assumption of the Chief Scientific officer who has all the reports, studies and data to back it up. Perhaps they are wrong by 100% but there is more than enough data to show it is well below 10%. How many great and good do you know who had the virus, now list all the other great and good.... these days everyone had had their minute of fame there are literally hundreds of thousands of your so called great and good from front line politicians to z list tv personalities.

For fear of repeating myself once again a virus doesn't need to be highly contagious to go though and entire population that has no immunity, it only needs to be contagious enough that on average 1 infected person infects 1 or more other people. Prior to lockdown this was the case, it was on average 2-3 new infections arising from contact with an infected person. This seemingly low rate of infection was enough that the number of cases and deaths was doubling every 4 days. Doubling is a very powerful force, small numbers become very very big numbers within a short time. Lockdown has cut the transmission rate below 1, the number of new cases and deaths each day is falling as a result. Unfortunately the numbers infected and the transmission rate is still too high that we might quickly contain the virus. If the rate rises back above 1 as measures are relaxed then lockdown may ultimately have been futile and only delayed the spread though the majority of the population. Time will tell.
 

Steevo

Member
Location
Gloucestershire
4% is the best estimate and the working assumption of the Chief Scientific officer who has all the reports, studies and data to back it up. Perhaps they are wrong by 100% but there is more than enough data to show it is well below 10%. How many great and good do you know who had the virus, now list all the other great and good.... these days everyone had had their minute of fame there are literally hundreds of thousands of your so called great and good from front line politicians to z list tv personalities.

For fear of repeating myself once again a virus doesn't need to be highly contagious to go though and entire population that has no immunity, it only needs to be contagious enough that on average 1 infected person infects 1 or more other people. Prior to lockdown this was the case, it was on average 2-3 new infections arising from contact with an infected person. This seemingly low rate of infection was enough that the number of cases and deaths was doubling every 4 days. Doubling is a very powerful force, small numbers become very very big numbers within a short time. Lockdown has cut the transmission rate below 1, the number of new cases and deaths each day is falling as a result. Unfortunately the numbers infected and the transmission rate is still too high that we might quickly contain the virus. If the rate rises back above 1 as measures are relaxed then lockdown may ultimately have been futile and only delayed the spread though the majority of the population. Time will tell.

Nicely put.

To add to that, they said yesterday that numbers of cases is now halving every 2 weeks. That is powerful too!
 

bobk

Member
Location
stafford
4% is the best estimate and the working assumption of the Chief Scientific officer who has all the reports, studies and data to back it up. Perhaps they are wrong by 100% but there is more than enough data to show it is well below 10%. How many great and good do you know who had the virus, now list all the other great and good.... these days everyone had had their minute of fame there are literally hundreds of thousands of your so called great and good from front line politicians to z list tv personalities.

For fear of repeating myself once again a virus doesn't need to be highly contagious to go though and entire population that has no immunity, it only needs to be contagious enough that on average 1 infected person infects 1 or more other people. Prior to lockdown this was the case, it was on average 2-3 new infections arising from contact with an infected person. This seemingly low rate of infection was enough that the number of cases and deaths was doubling every 4 days. Doubling is a very powerful force, small numbers become very very big numbers within a short time. Lockdown has cut the transmission rate below 1, the number of new cases and deaths each day is falling as a result. Unfortunately the numbers infected and the transmission rate is still too high that we might quickly contain the virus. If the rate rises back above 1 as measures are relaxed then lockdown may ultimately have been futile and only delayed the spread though the majority of the population. Time will tell.
You could die waiting .
 

farmerm

Member
Location
Shropshire
Having every week would be a much more powerful tool!

This would be the time line it we follow a halving every 2 weeks line trajectory and assuming R doesn't creeps up, as it is certain to do once relaxation of the restrictions come in.

1589308150849.png
 

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