Biggest Recession since 1706

[7610 super q]

I can't muster much sympathy for business.
Phoned up Screwfix last week....." We don't take phone orders anymore ". That's that then.
Phoned up LBS builders merchants this morning....no answer.
Phoned up Travis Perkins.....eventually someone answered. Ordered 1 ton sand and cement. " Sorry, minimum order of £150 now ". Oh well I'll have 2 ton sand and double the cement then.

I think a lot of companies are in for a hard time. Not due to coronovirus, but due to not giving a f**k about their customers.

 

[ollie989898]

Estimates vary between 20 and 47 MILLION.

I heard it was something like that but accurate figures don't really exist.

 

[Old McDonald]

Really, that will feel cold after Portugal Mc

The Azores is Portugal, and no, it is actually warmer than here except during the mainland hot summer months when it is cooler in the Azores. Not that it ever get “Australia” hot here. I have only once recorded over 40, and once exactly 40 – two consecutive days in Aug 2018. The official max temp ever for nearby Castelo Branco is 41.5º.

The minimum winter months’ means on Ilha do Pico, the island to which we hope to move, are in double figures. February is usually the coolest month. I am sure that, being a well-educated man, you are fully aware that the highest point in Portugal is Pico itself at 2351m and often has snow on the higher ground.

I have recorded min monthly means here of below zero in January and February and maximums have been in single figures, although not in the last few years. Global warming! There are ski slopes and lifts under 40 miles from me in a straight line, but a very winding road.

 

[farmerm]

I suspect you'll be surprised how many folk have had a dose in the UK .

4%!!! Only 4% of the UK population have been or are infected with Covid19 that is what the Chief Scientific Officer believes, he came out with it at the Covid briefing this evening. This is the figure the government are working from. Even if the scientific data has an error of 100% we are clearly well below 10% so there you have it, black and white.

The CSO also said they believe around 130,000 people are currently infected... From that we can do some primary school math... If R is 0.7 and infection period is 4 days we are looking at around another 105 days to pull the number of cases down from 130,0000 to single digits, if R slips to 0.9 its will take 300 days to pull the number of infections down form 130,000 to single figures! Worse still if R cant not be kept below 1 but sits roughly at 1 then we would have to reach a point of herd immunity to exit this. Any R at or above 1 results in a final death toll in the ballpark of 1/2 million given our current death toll represents on 4% of the population having been infected.... With 130,000 infected, 4% having been infected and if R got stuck at 1 we are 1500 days from reaching 50 million infected!!

 

[bobk]

4%!!! Only 4% of the UK population have been or are infected with Covid19 that is what the Chief Scientific Officer believes, he came out with it at the Covid briefing this evening. This is the figure the government are working from. Even if the scientific data has an error of 100% we are clearly well below 10% so there you have it, black and white.

The CSO also said they believe around 130,000 people are currently infected... From that we can do some primary school math... If R is 0.7 and infection period is 4 days we are looking at around another 105 days to pull the number of cases down from 130,0000 to single digits, if R slips to 0.9 its will take 300 days to pull the number of infections down form 130,000 to single figures! Worse still if R cant not be kept below 1 but sits roughly at 1 then we would have to reach a point of herd immunity to exit this. Any R at or above 1 results in a final death toll in the ballpark of 1/2 million given our current death toll represents on 4% of the population having been infected.... With 130,000 infected, 4% having been infected and if R got stuck at 1 we are 1500 days from reaching 50 million infected!!

15% of those tested have been positive , and that is a fact

 

[czechmate]

15% of those tested have been positive , and that is a fact

How do you know better than the UK cheif scientific officer?

 

[bobk]

4%!!! Only 4% of the UK population have been or are infected with Covid19 that is what the Chief Scientific Officer believes, he came out with it at the Covid briefing this evening. This is the figure the government are working from. Even if the scientific data has an error of 100% we are clearly well below 10% so there you have it, black and white.

The CSO also said they believe around 130,000 people are currently infected... From that we can do some primary school math... If R is 0.7 and infection period is 4 days we are looking at around another 105 days to pull the number of cases down from 130,0000 to single digits, if R slips to 0.9 its will take 300 days to pull the number of infections down form 130,000 to single figures! Worse still if R cant not be kept below 1 but sits roughly at 1 then we would have to reach a point of herd immunity to exit this. Any R at or above 1 results in a final death toll in the ballpark of 1/2 million given our current death toll represents on 4% of the population having been infected.... With 130,000 infected, 4% having been infected and if R got stuck at 1 we are 1500 days from reaching 50 million infected!!

Conversly if only 4% have been infected then it isn't very virulent .. is it .

 

[bobk]

How do you know better than the UK cheif scientific officer?

Read before you speak .

 

[farmerm]

15% of those tested have been positive , and that is a fact

That's right and who have we been testing... oh yes predominantly those who are so sick they need hospital care, its actually more of a surprise that that positive test results figure isn't well over 50%!

 

[czechmate]

Read before you speak .

I assumed you were taking a contradictory stance.
Playing the percentages ?

 

[bobk]

That's right and who have we been testing... oh yes predominantly those who are so sick they need hospital care, its actually more of a surprise that that positive test results figure isn't well over 50%!

Pretty pointless testing people that haven't got it .

 

[bobk]

I assumed you were taking a contradictory stance.
Playing the percentages ?

You know what they say about assumption .

 

[czechmate]

Pretty pointless testing people that haven't got it .

Well, that’s an interesting point.
Cz rep have been very on top of testing. Fil has had two tests now, both negative.
Today, they had 34 new cases and 1 death.
Coincidence?

That’s the whole country, not a little village.

 

[farmerm]

Conversly if only 4% have been infected then it isn't very virulent .. is it .

I do get bored repeating myself! No this virus really isn't very virulent, 80% of infected spouses do not ever infect there partner let along everyone they come into contact with but it doesn't need to be! A virus only needs to be transmissive enough that on average 1 infected person infect 1 or more other people for it to spread though the entire population who have no immunity to it. The difference between a highly virulent pathogen and a mildly virulent one is only the time it takes to infect an entire susceptible population. This virus is still virulent enough that even with all the social distancing measure each infected person is on average infecting between 0.7 and 0.9 other people.

 

[Chae1]

Pretty pointless testing people that haven't got it .

I think they must actually want to do that. To reach this target they keep going on about! 100k per day? Then fly tests to the US to get results.

 

[bobk]

I do get bored repeating myself! No this virus really isn't very virulent, 80% of infected spouses do not ever infect there partner let along everyone they come into contact with but it doesn't need to be! A virus only needs to be transmissive enough that on average 1 infected person infect 1 or more other people for it to spread though the entire population who have no immunity to it. The difference between a highly virulent pathogen and a mildly virulent one is only the time it takes to infect an entire susceptible population. This virus is still virulent enough that even with all the social distancing measure each infected person is on average infecting between 0.7 and 0.9 other people.

And your solution is ....

 

[bobk]

I think they must actually want to do that. To reach this target they keep going on about! 100k per day? Then fly tests to the US to get results.

The 100k tests was media pressure I suspect

 

[farmerm]

And your solution is ....

Solution Without a vaccine there isn't one is there? Either we manage to get the transmission rate well below 1 and we keep it there though ongoing social distancing measures or we give up, accept we will nearly all catch it at some point and accept the final death toll as inevitable. Neither option is politically or publicly acceptable, its why Borris has been making a dogs dinner of the last couple of Covid briefings!

 

[ollie989898]

4% of the population is different to 15% of those tested. How many people have been tested total?

 

[Brisel]

There are no statistics on how many have been infected. They simply don't exist, only those who have been treated or died following a positive test. Remember the government advice? Don't go to your doctor or hospital unless you're really bad. Just stay home and self isolate.

Any figures quoted are just made up.