2023 Wheat Margin

[tullah]

With wheat already in the ground and an ex farm harvest price of £223 has anyone done a rough gm budgeting for say 3.2 ton an acre of feed. By the time fixed costs have gone in too with diesel at say a £, are we now in negative territory?

 

[Bossfarmer]

Depends what price you get the fert at surely?

 

[tullah]

Big variable there. Say using 160 units N per acre and 40 each of P and K.
Ive got 34N 12S Urea sitting in the shed at £740 / ton bought some time ago, probably top of the market again! So probably best costed at rather less at todays price, same goes for seed off the heap.

Another big variable on the fixed costs side is running the kit . Perhaps quickest way to just put a figure on it at say 70% of the going rate for a contractor. In other words contractor charges £45 acre to combine and cart so farmers cost might be £32.

 

[Bossfarmer]

Big variable there. Say using 160 units N per acre and 40 each of P and K.
Ive got 34N 12S Urea sitting in the shed at £740 / ton bought some time ago, probably top of the market again! So probably best costed at rather less at todays price, same goes for seed off the heap.

Another big variable on the fixed costs side is running the kit . Perhaps quickest way to just put a figure on it at say 70% of the going rate for a contractor. In other words contractor charges £45 acre to combine and cart so farmers cost might be £32.

what price is that fert on todays market?

 

[farmerm]

I will not dared do that calculation until the days start getting brighter and longer.... I have an invoice for 0-20-30 on my desk, one that puts the break even for replacing nutrient offtake in straw at £90/ac

 

[tullah]

I've lost count of the pk holidays I've taken. With a smile on my face thinking there wouldn't be any fertiliser or wheat to spare for the coming season, I bought PK back in May when wheat was £275 plus for harvest '23. Am now licking my wounds.

 

[Flatlander]

Your on the tread mill already so it’s not easy to get off. Best way to ease the pain is to look at costs and find a better way of reducing them but it’s hard. Taking a PK holiday isn’t a long term strategy I would use if you intend to keep farming Unless your levels are high.
nit saying this is the case but I’ve seen many with fancy new pickups and new equipment to follow the latest farming fashion complaining there’s no money in farming all while sat in the office.

 

[Banana Bar]

It will be slim. VERY pleased I sold around 50% last month and put another 25% on pools. I followed the same pattern last year and that kicked me in the goolies. Currently loading around 700 t at £166/t.

 

[T Hectares]

There are many differences between GM predictions which need to be understood @tullah have you bought N?? Have you forward sold any wheat ?? Do you have a BG spend on residuals ??

Anyway, I’ve bought my N, forward sold a good percentage and would budget on a bit more yield as my 10 year average is higher than the 3.2t you mention, given all that my prediction is £1600/ha

Which is less than ‘22 but higher than ‘21

 

[bobk]

I think the market is over sold , so I'm going on holiday

 

[lloyd]

I think the market is over sold , so I'm going on holiday

Again.

 

[bobk]

Again.

Need some sun . not happening here

 

[snarling bee]

Started selling next years wheat at £251. I can live with that. N bought at best and 20% left over from last year. Its not the wheat that's the problem, its every other crop.