21st of June

[Barleymow]

Boris forgot to mention Red Tractor will have come to its senses by then

 

[Wolds Beef]

Well our County Show is due on 23 and 24 June. I for one would be very sceptical about going and it costs me nothing to get in as i am a life member!! If I do go it will be masks and rubber gloves job!
what would other people think?
WB

 

[DrWazzock]

I think a bit of restraint wouldn’t go amiss. The danger with setting these dates is they actually encourage people to have a big splurge en masse, whereas a steady ramp back would be safer.

 

[ISCO]

We will be cautious and give large crowd events a miss this year. See what happens for next year.

 

[Barleymow]

Dates apart from 8 March are not definite may well be a lot later if things go the wrong way

 

[Wolds Beef]

@DrWazzock Your only just down the road!! Would you go?
WB

 

[neilo]

Well our County Show is due on 23 and 24 June. I for one would be very sceptical about going and it costs me nothing to get in as i am a life member!! If I do go it will be masks and rubber gloves job!
what would other people think?
WB

Our local show (more of a fete really) cancelled again for this year a couple of weeks ago. Would have been mid-August. Cancelling again makes it more likely these things won’t get going again I guess.

 

[DrWazzock]

@DrWazzock Your only just down the road!! Would you go?
WB

@Wolds Beef All depends on how things pan out really, so too early to say. But I’d be quite wary. I will hopefully have been vaccinated by then but really I think big mixing events a day or two after restrictions end are pushing it a bit. I don’t think I’d go to be honest as things stand. I have concerns about virus variants.

 

[SilliamWhale]

I strongly believe Covid is very seasonal. For me it seems pretty obvious. Look at last years pattern. Lockdown did nothing of note - we didn't even put masks on until late august

120k dead they say. But the proportion of these caught in hospital with other major issues that could have caused death is not iterated and the huge care home wave back last April is needs to be put into context (a clear mistake).


All we have done to our country is make the poor poorer. We have a vaccine, if we are allowed to go to a supermarket why are we not allowed to go to another shop? Or meet some friends? The whole thing is madness. Massive amount of arse covering now

 

[kfpben]

Our show is going ahead. First Saturday in September.

Mind you the Country Sports Show managed to go ahead last year without incident. Possibly the only show to go ahead in the country?

 

[cows sh#t me to tears]

@Wolds Beef All depends on how things pan out really, so too early to say. But I’d be quite wary. I will hopefully have been vaccinated by then but really I think big mixing events a day or two after restrictions end are pushing it a bit. I don’t think I’d go to be honest as things stand. I have concerns about virus variants.

Drenched, bolused and castrated too

 

[Highland Mule]

Don't have desire to get into a protracted debate today, but felt this needed a short response:

I strongly believe Covid is very seasonal. For me it seems pretty obvious.

Given that the same spikes and waves are evident in both northern and southern hemispheres, at roughly the same time (i.e. summer for them, winter for us and v/v), your theory is pretty obviously wrong to me.

120k dead they say. But the proportion of these caught in hospital with other major issues that could have caused death is not iterated and the huge care home wave back last April is needs to be put into context (a clear mistake).

The Care Home issue at the start was lamentable, but there have been many, many losses since then too.

The issue of co-morbidities and "they would have died anyway" has been overplayed by many too, I feel. Reality is that most of us have some form of underlying condition that would appear on the official record, if we are honest (I can count three for myself, if you have none - well done) - about a quarter of the country has chronic asthma, two thirds are overweight or obese, many million are senior citizens etc.

All we have done to our country is make the poor poorer. We have a vaccine, if we are allowed to go to a supermarket why are we not allowed to go to another shop? Or meet some friends? The whole thing is madness. Massive amount of arse covering now

We are allowed to go shopping for essential supplies because we will starve if we don't, but allowing going to other places or meeting friends will increase population mixing and hence the rate of virus transmission and hence NHS demand and ultimately lead to potentially many more deaths if NHS capacity is breached.

Not madness but sound disease control practice. I'd do exactly the same if I had a disease running through my herd (and did last month, when I had an outbreak of nasty eye infections in my flock).

 

[B'o'B]

I strongly believe Covid is very seasonal. For me it seems pretty obvious. Look at last years pattern. Lockdown did nothing of note - we didn't even put masks on until late august

120k dead they say. But the proportion of these caught in hospital with other major issues that could have caused death is not iterated and the huge care home wave back last April is needs to be put into context (a clear mistake).


All we have done to our country is make the poor poorer. We have a vaccine, if we are allowed to go to a supermarket why are we not allowed to go to another shop? Or meet some friends? The whole thing is madness. Massive amount of arse covering now

I would say lockdown while keeping schools open did nothing, not so sure I agree with you on full lockdown.

Infections slumped mid winter when the schools locked down at the hight of traditional flu season, or do you feel that Covid has an Autumn peak?

 

[SilliamWhale]

Don't have desire to get into a protracted debate today, but felt this needed a short response:


Given that the same spikes and waves are evident in both northern and southern hemispheres, at roughly the same time (i.e. summer for them, winter for us and v/v), your theory is pretty obviously wrong to me.



The Care Home issue at the start was lamentable, but there have been many, many losses since then too.

The issue of co-morbidities and "they would have died anyway" has been overplayed by many too, I feel. Reality is that most of us have some form of underlying condition that would appear on the official record, if we are honest (I can count three for myself, if you have none - well done) - about a quarter of the country has chronic asthma, two thirds are overweight or obese, many million are senior citizens etc.



We are allowed to go shopping for essential supplies because we will starve if we don't, but allowing going to other places or meeting friends will increase population mixing and hence the rate of virus transmission and hence NHS demand and ultimately lead to potentially many more deaths if NHS capacity is breached.

Not madness but sound disease control practice. I'd do exactly the same if I had a disease running through my herd (and did last month, when I had an outbreak of nasty eye infections in my flock).

In NW Europe the viral curve has followed pretty much the same pattern once the virus became endemic. Lockdown or not. We had the first boost of the novel virus culminating last spring and then it just doing what it does seasonally. Same for lots of countries - first "invasion" causes a spike and then it will settle into its seasonal pattern for whatever region that is like. Look at the viral curves around the world. Lockdown is something we learnt from China, we have never done it before so I'm not sure we can be so confident it is sound disease control practice.

I don't think I said "they would have died anyway" as it were because that almost implies I don't care. I'm saying that a large number of these deaths took place when someone was also seriously ill from other causes. I'm sorry but anyone dying in a care home since the obvious first wave cock up is going to have a collection of co-morbidities leaving them vulnerable, the same with everyone over 80 - which is still lower than the average age of covid death. There will be lots of Captain Tom type deaths. Honestly - is it really a tragedy that someone raddled with dementia in a care home dies of Covid? I don't think so.

It is a serious disease, but I think when it all settles down we will almost certainly conclude that lockdowns 2 and 3 were an overreaction. Lockdown 1 probably was to but we knew so much less then. And we still haven't looked at the collateral damage yet - poor people will become poorer, unemployment higher etc. Its a big hole to dig out of.

 

[SilliamWhale]

I would say lockdown while keeping schools open did nothing, not so sure I agree with you on full lockdown.

Infections slumped mid winter when the schools locked down at the hight of traditional flu season, or do you feel that Covid has an Autumn peak?

I think we got ourselves into a right old mess with covid "cases" personally. I wouldn't know when covid peaks but I imagine it peaks the same as all other coronavirus'.

A huge amount of the spread of covid leading to death has come from inside the hospitals and the care homes. We have boxed ourselves into a situation where those who are not ill may actually be ill as a result of a test. I think it was pretty clear early on that covid had a an IFR of about 1% (0.1% under 40 and 5% over 80) but substantially lower in lower income populations with younger populations.

 

[DrWazzock]

I think we got ourselves into a right old mess with covid "cases" personally. I wouldn't know when covid peaks but I imagine it peaks the same as all other coronavirus'.

A huge amount of the spread of covid leading to death has come from inside the hospitals and the care homes. We have boxed ourselves into a situation where those who are not ill may actually be ill as a result of a test. I think it was pretty clear early on that covid had a an IFR of about 1% (0.1% under 40 and 5% over 80) but substantially lower in lower income populations with younger populations.

The latest lockdown clearly reversed a steeply rising rate of infection. The reduction wasn’t a seasonal effect as we were still firmly in winter.

 

[Wombat]

As long as the schools go back the rest i can live with or without

 

[Highland Mule]

In NW Europe the viral curve has followed pretty much the same pattern once the virus became endemic. Lockdown or not. We had the first boost of the novel virus culminating last spring and then it just doing what it does seasonally. Same for lots of countries - first "invasion" causes a spike and then it will settle into its seasonal pattern for whatever region that is like. Look at the viral curves around the world.

Some evidence to back up these claims would be interesting, but that doesn't accord with my understanding. I've made bold the parts I'm particularly keen to see/ don't agree with. Bear in mind that half the planet didn't have "the first boost of the novel virus culminating last spring".

Lockdown is something we learnt from China, we have never done it before so I'm not sure we can be so confident it is sound disease control practice.

Erm, F&M ?

I'm saying that a large number of these deaths took place when someone was also seriously ill from other causes.

Again, would be interesting to see what you base this assertion on as I know no facts to back it up. "Co-morbidities" as declared by the death certificates are very different from "seriously ill".

Honestly - is it really a tragedy that someone raddled with dementia in a care home dies of Covid? I don't think so.

Not aware that dementia is a death sentence in itself, so perhaps a bad example on your part, in the context of the previous quote?

It is a serious disease, but I think when it all settles down we will almost certainly conclude that lockdowns 2 and 3 were an overreaction. Lockdown 1 probably was to but we knew so much less then. And we still haven't looked at the collateral damage yet

I really don't think we will, but am prepared to listen - what's the basis of your conclusion, and is it based on anything more than an uneducated hunch? We have the best public health minds in the world looking at this issue, most developed countries are adopting similar strategies and there is minimal complaint from the mainstream scientific community aside from concern that the lockdowns were and may be being lifted too soon.

A huge amount of the spread of covid leading to death has come from inside the hospitals and the care homes.

Initially yes, latterly not so much so - unless you can show different? Last I saw the spread was firmly in the wider community.

 

[Cab-over Pete]

We were going to have a big old shindig last summer for my wife and I celebrating our 50th birthdays. Obviously, we postponed it until this summer, June 26th.

I think we will push it back again. We don’t really want to, but even if we have had our jabs and the majority of our 200+ intended guests have too, I don’t think everyone will have had their second jab.
I don’t think many people will want to be thrashing around like loons on a marquee dance floor sweating and breathing heavy under the influence of copious amounts of grog.

So if even a quarter of the guests don’t want to do that, what’s the point?
We don’t want anyone to miss it, feel bad about declining the invitation or feel nervous if they do come.

 

[Hfd Cattle]

We were going to have a big old shindig last summer for my wife and I celebrating our 50th birthdays. Obviously, we postponed it until this summer, June 26th.

I think we will push it back again. We don’t really want to, but even if we have had our jabs and the majority of our 200+ intended guests have too, I don’t think everyone will have had their second jab.
I don’t think many people will want to be thrashing around like loons on a marquee dance floor sweating and breathing heavy under the influence of copious amounts of grog.

So if even a quarter of the guests don’t want to do that, what’s the point?
We don’t want anyone to miss it, feel bad about declining the invitation or feel nervous if they do come.

Only 200 guests?? I thought TFF had over 30,000 members