AHDB planting survey

[yellow belly]

the ahdb have estimated that the area of wheat will be 1.5 million ha with 290000 still to plant 200000 of that is spring wheat
using their figures and 7 tonne for winter yeald and 5 t for spring gives 9 million tonnes wheat

I would guess to get average of 7 tonnes per ha from 1.3 million ha of winter wheat will need a big chunk of crops to do more than 10t per ha so perfect may and june weather with out too hot or too dull a lot of wheat round here will struggle to average 6 tonnes per ha fence post to fence post
if we have a dry hot may june then the uk crop will be under 8 million tonnes

 

[Hindsight]

http://link.ahdb.org.uk/m/1/45178595/p1-b20050-d07878cd53564907ae57468085e2e787/2/764/d5741b10-a773-418f-86f6-c1ab266c01a8

Link to AHDB report daily.

 

[Clive]

the ahdb have estimated that the area of wheat will be 1.5 million ha with 290000 still to plant 200000 of that is spring wheat
using their figures and 7 tonne for winter yeald and 5 t for spring gives 9 million tonnes wheat

I would guess to get average of 7 tonnes per ha from 1.3 million ha of winter wheat will need a big chunk of crops to do more than 10t per ha so perfect may and june weather with out too hot or too dull a lot of wheat round here will struggle to average 6 tonnes per ha fence post to fence post
if we have a dry hot may june then the uk crop will be under 8 million tonnes

I doubt there is a single 10t/ha crop in the UK right now

6 million t is my bet

 

[Banana Bar]

I doubt there is a single 10t/ha crop in the UK right now

6 million t is my bet

I can show you some, 150 ha but nowhere near what I’d like.

 

[B'o'B]

I doubt there is a single 10t/ha crop in the UK right now

6 million t is my bet

I recon I have a couple of fields that still have potential to do 10t+ but that won’t compensate for the 8% I have drilled and lost or the 7% I decided wasn’t worth drilling. I would need to achieve a 10t/Ha harvest over everything remaining to get anywhere near our 5year average yield now. Which won’t happen. I’m a light land farm who for various reasons pushed on very hard in early October when conditions were just about okay for 4 days (More luck than judgment I have to admit) if I get an average yield approaching 8.5t/Ha over area drilled I’ll be amazed, I’d be pretty happy to get 8t/Ha and I’m one of the lucky ones who actually has a crop in the ground, lots around on heavier land may have drilled some but don’t look to have many viable crops, even if they did managed to get the drill in the field.

 

[teslacoils]

Given I'm used to getting 10 maybe 11t/ha, this year it's a big fat zero. There's a lot of "good " land empty. And a lot of droughty land planted with small rooted late wheat.

 

[4course]

ahdb have in the same survey said 93% of intended ww plantings have been done by the 14th feb.Can we who actually till the land believe the accuracy of this cos looking around my area I can only assume that a fair proportion of the farmers up here decided last september to retire and fallow the lot ,a route I should have possibly followed

 

[B'o'B]

ahdb have in the same survey said 93% of intended ww plantings have been done by the 14th feb.Can we who actually till the land believe the accuracy of this cos looking around my area I can only assume that a fair proportion of the farmers up here decided last september to retire and fallow the lot ,a route I should have possibly followed

No it can’t be right, I’m at 93% of planned an I’m an exception in my area and as an area we are no where near as badly as many others. Lots and lots with nothing drilled means that the maths dont add up.
I have heard of some to the east of us having planted more than the thought they would due to seeing how much everyone else was struggling but only a few extra % maybe 10% in extreme cases, but I still don’t see that filling the gap.

 

[4course]

I doubt there is a single 10t/ha crop in the UK right now

6 million t is my bet

it will depend which pub you drink in come harvest

 

[Jon 3085]

If it is drilled most of the headlands won’t yield well,not on my farm anyway.

 

[AndrewM]

if you look at the figures on the sheet, it says as of 14th feb, growers intend to have planted 17% less wheat than 2019, this includes spring wheat.
it also says to date there is 33% less wheat in the ground than 2019. with places like the east midlands having only planted 43% of last years acres.

seem fairly believable to me.

 

[Hindsight]

Australia says 2019/20 wheat harvest drops to lowest in 12 years

By Colin PackhamSYDNEY, Feb 18 (Reuters) - Australia said on Tuesday its 2019/2020 wheat harvest was the lowest in 12 years, missing its forecast, as a severe drought across the east coast wilted crops.Australia's chief commodity forecaster said in December it expected wheat production during...

www.agriculture.com

Australia says 2019/20 wheat harvest drops to lowest in 12 years

 

[yellow belly]

my take on the 87% is that that 100% is the final area of wheat that will be planted
not what every one planned to be wheat last September

I would not argue with percentages as it is a waist of time

concentrate on the 1,5 million ha that they predict to be planted
last year it was 1.8 million ha in a very easy long dry autumn even late October planted second wheat was well above my long term average
this year planted will have to be exceptional from now on the get to the average
I planted much less wheat in September and drilled less than half so have 30% of 2019s area
last time we had less whet we farmed 1/3 of the area we have now in the last 20 years we have had years with 50% setaside due to weather but planted more wheat round here there a thousands of fields not planted only a handfull that could do 10 tonne (if they get enough rain in may and june if not it is 6 tonne
any way for 1,5 million acre the south south west and north above York must be near 100% and the heathland after roots has been planted with wheat instead of barley
the issue is how much of the 1.5 million will be planted after early November
we cannot use 2019 late planted yields for 2020 crops
as for what will be the average yield if we have 1.5 million has harvested the average will be much lower than if 1.3 million ha because the worst 200000 ha
at best we will have 9 million tonnes 1.5 million at 6 tonnes or 1.3 million at 7 tonnes
clives 6 million is possible with a drought in the south
if I looked in my back yard then the prediction would be 5 million tonnes if the whole crop was as bad as the east midlands
the uk average yield has not been below 7 tonnes since the 1980s the area has not been this low since then and that includes the big setaside years

if I was a big wig in the trade work on 8 million tonnes harvested a million extra carried over an extra million tonnes of barley
I will use half the fertiliser and chemicls of 2019 and have double the barley but 1/4 the wheat and no rape for 2020
stewardship acres will be the most profitable

 

[T Hectares]

I doubt there is a single 10t/ha crop in the UK right now

6 million t is my bet

I’d say 60% of mine has every chance of achieving expected yields, the 4 years I’ve been here I’ve averaged 10.2 t/ha so barring a disastrous growing season I can’t see why 10 t/ha wouldnt be on the cards ??

The other 40% is probably going to be 20% down, so maybe 5-10% down over the whole area as a stab

There is a long, long way to go though and May - June weather will still be key of course !!

 

[Wombat]

I’d say 60% of mine has every chance of achieving expected yields, the 4 years I’ve been here I’ve averaged 10.2 t/ha so barring a disastrous growing season I can’t see why 10 t/ha wouldnt be on the cards ??

The other 40% is probably going to be 20% down, so maybe 5-10% down over the whole area as a stab

There is a long, long way to go though and May - June weather will still be key of course !!

Hopefully we get a scorching hot season to put right the last 5months

 

[T Hectares]

Hopefully we get a scorching hot season to put right the last 5months

I’d settle for an average March at the moment !!

 

[Brisel]

Very few acres of wheat not planted around here on the chalk. Most looks ok and whilst it won't be a vintage year, with a half decent growing season from now it should equal the long term average yield for most.

My own TFF survey is here

 

[Wombat]

I’d settle for an average March at the moment !!

An average won’t cut it here, needs to be way below average to dry up and crack on

 

[Wombat]

Very few acres of wheat not planted around here on the chalk. Most looks ok and whilst it won't be a vintage year, with a half decent growing season from now it should equal the long term average yield for most.

My own TFF survey is here

Similar on the wolds round here, but they have 500ft of chalk with a bit of soil thrown on top so it’s basically a bloody big sponge. Get off there and it’s a lot different. Drove to Gloucester for half term and from the motorway all the way down it wasn’t pretty

 

[T Hectares]

Similar on the wolds round here, but they have 500ft of chalk with a bit of soil thrown on top so it’s basically a bloody big sponge. Get off there and it’s a lot different. Drove to Gloucester for half term and from the motorway all the way down it wasn’t pretty

We are in a bit of a bubble on chalk, we have abrasive tyre eating flints, BG and low fertility soils to balance though!! there’s still a big range of growers who are 0 - 100% drilled in a 10 mile radius of here, probably 70-80% drilled up locally with drilling’s up to just before Ciara hit, so I guess 60 - 70 % of the average Wheat yields will be cut in an area where we have managed to get on, I can imagine less than 8mt nationally...