AHDB weekly market report

[MrNoo]

Ironic when you as an organisation are supposed to have a remit of finding us uk growers markets, why don't you do a piece on unassured prices, see what the reality of your efforts have delivered to the unassured farmers of this country. Your £250k yearly bungs to Red Tractor.
Why not do some research and post what actual prices us non assured boys and girls are getting or not.
Milling spec wheat was £335/t I was offered £260 non assured feed.
Feed beans no market unless assured, OSR same. Non assured feed barley (malt spec) £220/t
Its all well and good saying the market has done this or that but just because some of us are not willing to pay a Cartel we get shafted by an organisation you openly support, Red Tractor. Yet imports have better market access than I do. Sort it out please

 

[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Monday 10 October 2022

UK focus​

Provisional cereal and oilseed production estimates for England 2022 were released by Defra this morning. Total cereal production in England is estimated to have increased by 9.4% on the year, to nearly 21Mt in 2022. The higher yields across the main cereal crops outweighed a small decrease in total area. The provisional estimate of the 2022 England wheat crop is 14.4Mt, up 12% on the year, using a yield of 8.6t/ha. The 2022 England barley harvest was pegged at 5.2Mt, up 6.6% from the previous season. In 2022 production of Oats is estimated to have fallen by 8% to 825Kt.
Domestic wheat prices tracked the global complex last week. UK feed wheat futures (Nov-22) were down 3.1% Friday to Friday.

UK delivered prices followed this movement. On Thursday, feed wheat delivered into East Anglia (for October delivery) was quoted at £279.00/t, down £6.00/ from the previous week. For February 2023 delivery into East Anglia, this was quoted at £284.50/t, also down £6.00/t.

Bread wheat delivered into the North West for December delivery was quoted at £346.50/t on Thursday, down £7.00/t from the previous week.

Feed barley delivered into Devon for November delivery was quoted at £262.00/t on Thursday.
The pound sterling weakened slightly last week against the US dollar (Friday-Friday). Sterling closed on Friday at £1 = $1.1084, down 0.7% over the week. Read more about how this could impact markets here.

Rapeseed focus​

Paris rapeseed futures (Nov-22) closed Friday at €629.50/t, down €3.50/t across the week. Delivered prices tracked this slight pressure, with delivered rapeseed (into Erith, Nov-22) being quoted at £547.50/t on Friday, down £3.00/t on the week.

Defra released their provisional cereal and oilseed production estimates for England 2022 this morning. Oilseed rape production is estimated to have increased by 43% from harvest 2021, to 1.2Mt in 2022. This was driven by a 20% annual increase in area (to 322.8Kha) and a 19% annual increase in yield from last year (to 3.7t/ha). England yields provisionally are estimated up from the 5-year average of 3.3t/ha.

Flood warnings have been issued in New South Wales, Australia. Parts of NSW and Victoria could receive up to 6 inches of rain over the next seven days. With these two regions growing large quantities of canola, this is a key watchpoint to whether this will have impacts on the canola as it enters its final stages of development.

Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here: https://ahdb.org.uk/news/arable-market-report-10-october-2022

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Monday 17 October 2022

UK grain markets
UK feed wheat (Nov-22) futures lost £3.65/t across the week, to close at £278.60/t on Friday. This followed Chicago wheat futures down and fell from Monday’s high of £293.20/t, the highest nearby price close since mid-June.

UK delivered prices followed futures contract movement Thursday to Thursday. Feed wheat delivered into East Anglia (February delivery) was quoted at £286.50/t, up £2.00/t.

The pound sterling strengthened slightly by 0.78% against the US dollar Friday to Friday, to close at £1=$1.117. Domestic markets are reacting quickly to the UK’s political news, adding potential further volatility to exchange rates.

On Wednesday, the latest HMRC trade data was released for August figures. From July to August, according to HMRC data, 110.8Kt of wheat has been exported over the two months. This is up 81Kt from the same period in the previous year. To access the full data release, click here.

Rapeseed focus
Paris rapeseed futures were up 0.7% across the week (Friday to Friday). The price movement was largely due to ongoing concerns surrounding the future of the Ukrainian export corridor. It’s possible that Moscow could reject a renewal of the corridor deal, maintaining the floor of support we have seen in global markets and keeping rapeseed price movements volatile.

UK trade data was updated last week. Over July and August, the UK imported 117.3Kt of rapeseed, down 43.7% from the same period last year. Access the full dataset here.

Please note that AHDB were unable to publish delivered oilseed prices last week due to insufficient quotes to calculate the published average.

Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here: https://ahdb.org.uk/news/arable-market-report-17-october-2022

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Monday 24 October 2022

UK grain markets
UK feed wheat futures movements continued to follow global contract movements last week.

UK feed wheat futures (Nov-22) fell £11.10/t last week, to close on Friday at £267.50/t. The May-23 contract fell only £3.55/t over the same period, to close at £284.50/t. New-crop futures (Nov-23) fell even less again, down £2.95/t to close at £267.05/t.

Domestic delivered prices for feed wheat into East Anglia were quoted on Thursday at £270.00/t for November delivery. Bread wheat prices for December delivered into the North West were quoted at £342.00/t.

The pound sterling strengthened against the US dollar overall across last week by 1.2%, despite some fluctuation, to close on Friday at £1 = $1.1302. This morning has seen further gains. Exchange rate movements remain sensitive to UK political developments. Rishi Sunak is set to be the next prime minister as announced today. With this news known, this could settle markets. Though, next Monday’s (31 Oct) fiscal announcement and OBR forecast will be a watchpoint for financial markets.

On Thursday, the early balance sheets for 2022/23 were released for wheat and barley. Key points show a large surplus for wheat this season is forecasted, despite higher wheat usage forecasted too. For barley, lacklustre animal feed demand and higher production have led to a larger surplus. Though, the barley remains historically tight.

Rapeseed focus
Paris rapeseed futures (Nov-22) tracked sideways across the week (Friday to Friday), slightly down by €3.00/t to close at €630.75/t.

The Aug-23 contract closed at €633.25, down €0.50/t over the same period. Delivered rapeseed into Erith for harvest 2023 (August) delivery was quoted on Friday at £550.00/t. With sterling slightly weakening by 0.3% across the week to close at £1=€1.147, this would have supported domestic rapeseed prices slightly.

Across the week we saw concentrated rains between 0.1 and 1 inch in key canola producing regions in Canada, namely Alberta and Saskatchewan. Rains of up to 5 inches are forecast for Saskatchewan for the coming week as well. Though with canola harvest almost complete in these regions, this should not impact the crop massively.

Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here: https://ahdb.org.uk/news/arable-market-report-24-october-2022

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Monday 31 October 2022

UK focus​

UK feed wheat futures continue to track global movements down. The May-23 contract lost 1.6% over the week (Friday to Friday), while new crop prices (Nov-23) were down 1.5% over the same period. With both contracts closing at £280.00/t and £263.10/t, respectively.

Domestic delivered prices for feed wheat into East Anglia for November delivery was quoted at £266.50/t on Thursday, down £3.50/t on the week. Bread wheat prices for December delivery into the North West were quoted at £341.00/t, down £1.00/t on the week.

Last week the UK tax and spending plan was pushed back by two weeks, moving it to 17 November. The move is said to have settled investors and led to calmer market conditions. The current Bank of England base interest rate sits at 2.25% though is expected to be reviewed in a meeting on Thursday.

As mentioned in Megan’s GMD last week, UK natural gas prices have been falling over the past two months, back to levels in line with last year. Milder weather across Europe has meant that demand has dampened slightly for winter gas supplies. However, the heightening of the war in Ukraine over the weekend has seen prices climb, with nearby futures at 12.30pm today, up 32.3% from Friday’s close. Weather and its impact on demand will remain a watchpoint over the next few weeks, as well as the situation in Ukraine.

Rapeseed focus​

Rapeseed prices were down across last week, alongside soyabeans. Paris rapeseed futures (May-23) closed at €637.00/t on Friday, down €1.00/t across the week.

Delivered rapeseed (into Erith, May-23) was quoted at £556.50/t on Friday with no comparison on the week. However, harvest-23 was quoted at £546.50/t, down £3.50/t across the week.
Sterling strengthened (+1.7%) against the euro across the week to close Friday at £1 = €1.1654. This would have added further losses to domestic rapeseed prices across the week.

This Wednesday (02 November), StatCan will be releasing the Canadian estimates of production and yields of principal field (as at November 2022). This will provide further insight into Canada’s improved production for this marketing year.

Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here: https://ahdb.org.uk/news/arable-market-report-31-october-2022

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Monday 07 November 2022

UK focus​

UK feed wheat futures tracked global markets up last week. The May-23 contract gained 0.7% over the week (Friday to Friday). New crop prices (Nov-23) gained slightly less, up 0.2% over the same period.

Domestic delivered prices followed futures price direction up. Feed wheat into East Anglia for November delivery was quoted at £272.50/t on Thursday, up £6.00/t on the week. Bread wheat prices for November delivery into the North West were quoted at £344.50/t, up £4.50/t on the week.

On Thursday, the Bank of England announced that its benchmark interest rate would increase from 2.25% to 3%, the highest level in 14 years. Following the news, the sterling lost value against the US dollar, down 2% over Thursday’s session. However, since then, the sterling has been trading up as the US dollar weakens. On Friday the sterling closed against the dollar at £1=$1.1375, up 1.9% from Thursday.

Last week, the latest cereal usage data for GB animal feed production and UK human and industrial cereal usage was released. Read more about the animal feed production data in Friday’s grain market daily.

In October, AHDB hosted a series of webinars to introduce the Digital Grain Passport (DGP) to stakeholders across the arable supply chain. If you missed the webinars or would like to see the prototype again, click here. Your feedback on the DGP matters. As such, please contact your relevant trade association with your feedback on the proposal. Alternatively, if you are not a member of a trade association listed here, please contact Derek Carless ([email protected]) with your views.

Rapeseed focus​

Rapeseed prices were supported last week with the oilseed complex, as Paris rapeseed futures (May-23) closed Friday at €660.00/t, up €23.00/t across the week.

Delivered rapeseed (into Erith, May-23) was quoted on Friday at £587.00/t, gaining £30.50/t over the week. Greater gains were seen on the domestic market, as the sterling weakened (-2%) against the euro across the week, to close Friday at £1 = €1.1416.

In other news, the latest Stratégie Grains oilseed report estimates the 2023/24 EU harvestable rapeseed area at 6.0Mha. This would be up 2.4% on the year if realised. High prices have incentivised the increase, whilst timely rainfall before and after plantings has aided crop establishment and development.

Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here: https://ahdb.org.uk/news/arable-market-report-07-november-2022

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Monday 21 November 2022

UK grain markets

UK feed wheat futures tracked global markets down last week. The May-23 contract fell 2.3% over the week (Friday – Friday). New crop futures (Nov-23) were down 2.4% over the same period.

Domestic delivered prices followed futures price direction down. Feed wheat into East Anglia for November delivery was quoted at £257.50/t on Thursday, down £7.00/t on the week. Bread wheat prices for December delivery into the North West were quoted at £329.00/t, down £7.50/t over the week.

The UK government’s tax and spending plan announcement on Thursday was said to be as expected by the market, and as a result there was little market reaction. The pound sterling strengthened slightly (up 1.1%) against the dollar on the week, ending the session at £1 = $1.1906 on Friday.

Last Tuesday saw the provisional release of the AHDB Early Bird Survey for plantings and planting intentions, for harvest 2023. The key message within the survey data shows that favourable autumn conditions see winter cropping rise further despite rising fertiliser costs. Click here to view the full survey results.

Rapeseed focus

Rapeseed prices followed the wider oilseed complex down last week. Paris rapeseed futures (May-23) closed at €610.00/t on Friday, down €24.50/t across the week.

Delivered rapeseed into Erith (Dec-22) was quoted at £530.00/t on Friday, down £29.00/t across the week. Harvest-23 delivered into Erith, was also down £29.00/t Friday to Friday, quoted at £528.00/t.

Sterling strengthened 0.61% against the euro across the week to close at £1=€1.151 on Friday. This would have further pressured domestic rapeseed prices Friday to Friday.

Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here: https://ahdb.org.uk/news/arable-market-report-21-november-2022

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Monday 28 November 2022

UK focus​

UK feed wheat futures tracked global markets down last week. The May-23 contract fell 3.1% across the week (Friday-Friday). New crop futures were down 2.9% over the same period.
Domestic delivered prices followed the futures price movement down. Feed wheat into East Anglia for December delivery was quoted at £248.50/t on Thursday, down £10.50/t on the week. Bread wheat for December delivery into the North West was quoted at £320.00/t, down £9.00/t on the week.

With the UK now officially in a recession, the cost-of-living crisis continues to fuel concerns over domestic demand. AHDB’s strategic insight team found that consumers are looking to save money on their food, and therefore are choosing to trade down or buy fewer items. Focusing on flour, home baking occasions are following a downwards trend and retail sales (in volume) are down at least 15% across all flour types. Find the full article here.

Last Tuesday, the first official 2022/23 UK supply and demand estimates for wheat, barley, oats and maize were published. As could be expected, larger wheat carry-in stocks, combined with a rise in production, outweighs an increase in usage, leading to a substantial exportable surplus for the season. In contrast, the barley balance is estimated to be the third tightest in 10 years. Find the full estimates here.

Rapeseed focus​

Rapeseed prices continue to drop with the pressure on crude oil. Paris rapeseed futures (May-23) closed Friday at €592.25/t, down €17.75/t across the week. Delivered prices (Erith, Dec-22) followed futures down being quoted at £502.00/t, down £28.00/t across the week. Sterling strengthening (+1%) against the euro meant the pressure was greater on the domestic market. Trading closed Friday at £1 = €1.1621.

Price pressure on ICE canola futures continues as farmer selling increases in Canada after growers have held onto canola supplies; a recent futures selloff has triggered farmers to move stockpiles to market.

Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here: https://ahdb.org.uk/news/arable-market-report-28-november-2022

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Monday 05 December 2022

UK grain markets
UK feed wheat futures tracked global markets down last week, with the nearby UK feed wheat contract closing at its lowest point (£240.20/t) since 25 February on Friday. The May-23 contract closed at £245.70/t on Friday, down £12.05/t Friday to Friday. The Nov-23 contract was down £6.65/t over the same period, closing at £233.50/t on Friday.

UK delivered prices followed futures market movements (Thursday-Thursday). East Anglian feed wheat for December delivery was quoted at £244.00/t on Thursday, down £4.50/t on the week.

Bread wheat, for February delivery into Northamptonshire, was quoted at £307.00/t on Thursday.

On Friday, the first GB crop development report for the 2022/23 season was published with data up to 29 November. Almost all winter crops have now been planted. The recent moisture, and mild conditions over autumn, have enabled quick crop emergence and development. Generally, crops are faring well for this time of year. 87% of UK winter wheat was in good-excellent condition, up 3pp on the same time last year. For a full crop breakdown, and information on pest and disease, follow this link.

Rapeseed focus
Despite a mix of bearish and bullish news, rapeseed prices felt overall pressure across the week. Paris rapeseed futures (May-23) were pressured from Wednesday despite some early week support. The contract closed at €572.00/t on Friday, down €20.25/t across the week.

Delivered rapeseed (into Erith, Dec-22) was quoted at £496.50/t on Friday, down £5.50/t across the week. Our domestic values did not see the same pressure, due to the survey being undertaken on Friday around 12:00 noon. The May-23 futures contract lost over €10.00/t after this period.

In the latest crop development report released on Friday, GB oilseed rape crops were rated 77% good-excellent at the end of November. This is down slightly from 78% at the same point last year. Drilling of OSR was complete at the end of September. Generally, the crop has established well, though certain areas struggled due to the prolonged dry conditions at the end of summer.

Statistics Canada lowered their canola crop production estimate to 18.2Mt last week, from 19.1Mt in previous reports. This crop was revised down due to dry conditions in parts of the Canadian Prairies. The previous estimate in September was from satellite images, but the current estimate was produced through farm survey conducted in November.

Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here: https://ahdb.org.uk/news/arable-market-report-05-december-2022

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Monday 12 December 2022

UK focus​

UK feed wheat futures tracked global prices down last week. The May-23 contract fell 1.5% over the week (Friday-Friday). New crop futures (Nov-23) were down 2.6% over the same period.

Domestic delivered prices followed futures price movement down. Feed wheat into East Anglia for December delivery was quoted at £239.50/t on Thursday, down £4.50/t on the week. Bread wheat for December delivery into the North West, was quoted at £319.50/t.

Last week, the UK agreed to double imports of US gas over the next year as an attempt to stabilise climbing energy prices. However, natural gas prices are currently climbing as colder weather sees increased demand. Front month ICE UK natural gas futures closed at 345.91p/therm on Friday, up 2.9% from the week before.

Rapeseed focus​

Despite strength in soyabeans this did not filter into rapeseed prices. Paris rapeseed futures (May-23) closed Friday at €571.25/t, down €0.75/t across the week.

Delivered rapeseed (into Erith, Dec-23) was quoted at £489.50/t, down £7.00/t across the week. Greater losses were recorded on our domestic market as sterling was stronger against the euro on Friday, but, slightly weaker (-0.25%) across the week closing Friday at £1 = €1.1628.

Brent crude oil futures (nearby) closed Friday at $76.10/barrel, down 11.1% across the week. The large drops in brent crude oil have been weighing on rapeseed prices and vegetable oils in recent weeks.

Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here: https://ahdb.org.uk/news/arable-market-report-12-december-2022

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Monday 19 December 2022

UK grain markets​

UK feed wheat futures (May-23) fell £2.50/t last week (Friday to Friday), to close on Friday at £239.50/t. Whereas, new crop futures (Nov-23) gained £1.00/t over the same period, to close at £228.50/t.

Domestic delivered prices followed UK feed wheat futures price movement last week (Thursday to Thursday). Feed wheat delivered into East Anglia (December delivery) was quoted on Thursday at £235.00/t, down £4.50/t.

North-west bread wheat was quoted at £315.50/t for December delivery on Thursday, down £4.00/t.
Last week saw the release of Defra’s final estimates for 2022 UK cereal and oilseed production. Despite the hot and dry conditions experienced this summer impacting some crops on lighter land, wheat, barley, oat and oilseed rape yields are up on the year. UK production is estimated for wheat at 15.540Mt (up 11% year-on-year), total barley production at 7.385Mt (up 6%) and oat production at 1.007Mt (down 10%). For more information, use this link.

The Bank of England also confirmed another interest rate rise last week, increased by 0.5 percentage points to take the base rate to 3.5%. Important for interest earned on money in the bank as well as loans.

Rapeseed focus​

Rapeseed prices tracked the wider oilseed complex lower. Paris rapeseed futures (May-23) closed at €566.75/t on Friday, losing €4.50/t Friday-Friday.

Delivered rapeseed into Erith (Jan-23) was quoted at £486.00/t, down £4.50/t Friday-Friday. This was broadly tracking the movement of continental prices. However, over the week, the pound sterling weakened 1.43% against the Euro, to close on Friday at £1 = €1.147.

Cold weather in France and in other parts of Europe is not expected to cause much harm to rapeseed crops according to Refinitiv, due to good crop development during the warmer weather in October and well-established crops.

On Thursday, Defra released their final estimates for 2022 UK cereal and oilseed production. Oilseed rape yields are up 16% year-on-year despite dry weather experienced this year. Oilseed rape production is estimated up 39% year-on-year at 1.361Mt for harvest 2022, yet this is down 14% from the previous five-year average (2017-2021).

Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here: https://ahdb.org.uk/news/arable-market-report-19-december-2022

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Tuesday 03 January 2023

UK grain markets

UK markets followed the upward trend seen in US markets last week. May-23 UK feed wheat futures closed at £251.00/t on Friday, up £4.00/t from 23 December. The Nov-23 contract rose by £3.15/t over the same period, to close at £236.15/t.

On 20 December, AHDB published the final results of the 2022 Early Bird Survey of cropping intentions. For harvest 2023, the wheat area is expected to remain relatively unchanged at 1,821Kha, while the total barley area is expected to be down by 2% at 1,082Kha, driven by a reduction in spring planting intentions. To view the full results of the survey, please click here.

Rapeseed focus

Paris rapeseed futures (May-23) closed yesterday (02 Jan) at €587.50/t, up 2.6% from 23 December. The Nov-23 contract saw a 2.8% rise over the same period, also closing at €587.50/t. These price increases follow the gains made in the wider oilseed complex, as well as rapeseed markets continuing to react to any news on Ukrainian and Russian exports.

In the same period over Christmas, the sterling weakened against the euro by 0.56%.

The final results of this year’s Early Bird Survey showed another yearly climb in the UK’s rapeseed area is expected. High rapeseed prices, combined with favourable conditions, played a part in a greater planting campaign this autumn. The planted area is estimated to be up 52Kha on the year, at 416Kha. To view the full results of the survey, please click here.

Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here: https://ahdb.org.uk/news/arable-market-report-03-january-2023

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Monday 09 January 2023

UK grain markets

UK feed wheat futures (May-23) fell £11.10/t last week (Friday-Friday), closing at £239.90/t on Friday. New crop futures (Nov-23) closed at £230.00/t on Friday, down £6.15/t over the same period.

Delivered feed wheat into East Anglia (Jan delivery) averaged £238.50/t, up £3.00/t from the previous survey (15 December). Bread wheat for delivery into Northamptonshire for February averaged £306.50/t, down £1.00/t compared to 15 December.

Rapeseed focus

Rapeseed markets followed the wider oilseed complex down last week. Paris rapeseed futures (May-23) closed Friday at €583.00/t, down €5.00/t across the week.

Delivered rapeseed (Erith, Jan-23) was quoted at £508.00/t on Friday, with no comparison on the week. For harvest the price was quoted at £514.50/t for the same location.

Pressure on crude oil will have filtered into rapeseed values. Brent crude oil futures (nearby) closed Friday at $78.57/barrel, down 8.54% across the week.

Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here: https://ahdb.org.uk/news/arable-market-report-09-january-2023

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Monday 16 January 2023

UK grain markets

Domestic grain prices tracked continental markets last week. UK feed wheat (May-23) fell 3% across last week (Friday-Friday), closing at £232.65/t on Friday. New crop futures (Nov-23) fell 1% over the same period, closing at £227.65/t on Friday.

Delivered feed wheat into East Anglia (Jan delivery) was quoted at £228.50/t on Thursday, down £10.00/t on the week. Bread wheat for delivery into the North West for January, was quoted at £309.50/t.

AHDB published the latest cereal usage data last week. GB animal feed production hit a 6-year low from July to November, and was down 5% on year earlier levels, at 5.41Mt (including integrated poultry units). With a reduction in animal feed production comes a fall in cereal usage. For the July-November period, wheat usage in total feed production fell 3%, while barley usage was down 27% on the year.

UK human and industrial usage data was also released last week. Total wheat milled from July-November was down 0.7% on the year. However, barley and wheat usage by brewers, maltsters and distillers was up 5.8% and 13.7% respectively. Find the full set of results here.

Rapeseed focus

Rapeseed markets followed Malaysian palm oil down last week. On Friday, Paris rapeseed futures (May-23) closed Friday at €570.75/t, down €12.25/t across the week.

Delivered rapeseed into Erith (Jan-23) was quoted at £496.00/t on Friday, down £12.00/t from the previous week. For harvest the price was quoted at £503.00/t for the same location.

Brent crude oil (nearby) found a little support last week, up $6.71/ barrel to close at $85.28/ barrel on expectations of Chinese demand recovery on easing restrictions. However, COVID-19 case numbers will be important to watch for demand across wider oilseed markets.

Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here: https://ahdb.org.uk/news/arable-market-report-16-january-2023

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Monday 23 January 2023

UK grain markets
UK feed wheat futures (May-23) fell £5.90/t last week (Friday-Friday), closing at £226.75/t. New crop futures (Nov-23) closed at £221.10/t on Friday, down £6.55/t over the same period.

Feed wheat delivered into East Anglia (Jan delivery) was quoted at £223.00/t, down £5.50/t Thursday-Thursday. Bread wheat delivered into the North West (Jan delivery) was quoted at £304.00/t, down £5.50/t over the same period.

On Wednesday the Office for National Statistics (ONS) released updated consumer inflation data showing the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) fell from 9.3% in November to 9.2% in December (from year earlier levels).

The January release of the UK cereal supply and demand estimates is set to be published by the AHDB on Thursday 26 January, including the first estimates for exports and end-season stocks of wheat and barley for this season.

Rapeseed focus
Broadly pressuring rapeseed this week has been the weakening of Chicago soyabeans and soyoil, from the improved weather outlook in Argentina. Further to that, proposals from the German Environment Minister to retract the usage of crop-based biofuel in the country, pressured the rapeseed market, as demand for vegetable oils such as rape and palm will be reduced.

Paris rapeseed futures (May-23) closed Friday at €536.25/t, down €34.50/t Friday to Friday. Delivered rapeseed (Into Erith, Jan-23) was quoted at £463.50/t on Friday, broadly following Paris rapeseed futures movements, down £32.50/t across the week (Friday to Friday).

Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here: https://ahdb.org.uk/news/arable-market-report-23-january-2023

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Monday 30 January 2023

UK focus​

UK futures markets followed the upward movement in global markets, with the May-23 contract closing at £229.80/t on Friday (27 Jan), up £3.05/t from 20 January. Physical prices also recorded similar gains, with feed wheat for spot delivery into East Anglia gaining £4.00/t on the week at £228.50/t. Bread wheat for spot delivery into the North West was at £307.50/t, up £2.50/t week on week.

Last Thursday, AHDB published the latest UK cereal supply and demand estimates for the 2022/23 season, which included estimates for wheat and barley exports and end-season stocks for the first time. While wheat exports are expected to be higher on the year at 1.15Mt and usage is expected to increase, this is outweighed by larger availability this season, leading to the biggest end-season stocks since 2015/16. For barley, with increased production boosting supply, and lower animal feed usage forecast, outweighing stronger H&I demand, the barley balance sheet is heavier in 2022/23, but remains relatively tight historically. To view the balance sheets in full, click here.

Also on Thursday, the Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs set out more detail on both the Sustainable Farming Incentive (SFI) and Countryside Stewardship (CS). Click here to find out more.

Rapeseed focus​

Support for soyabeans and palm oil filtered into rapeseed markets, as Paris rapeseed futures (May-23) closed at €540.50/t on Friday, gaining €4.25/t across the week. Delivered rapeseed (into Erith, Feb-23) was quoted at £473.00/t on Friday, up £8.50/t across the week. The weakening (0.2%) of sterling against the euro across the week added further support to domestic values. Trading closed Friday at £1 = €1.1397.

The latest Stratégie grains oilseed report released on Friday estimates the EU crop at 19.5Mt for harvest 2023, in line with last years output. Rapeseed crops are generally reported to be in satisfactory condition.

Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here: https://ahdb.org.uk/news/arable-market-report-30-january-2023

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Monday 06 February 2023

UK focus

UK feed wheat futures followed the upward price movement seen in the US. Old crop prices (May-23) gained 2% Friday – Friday, and new crop futures (Nov-23) climbed 2.1% over the same period.

Feed wheat delivered into East Anglia (Feb-23 delivery) was quoted at £230.50/t on Thursday, up £2.00/t Thursday – Thursday. Bread wheat delivered into the North West (Feb-23 delivery) was quoted at £311.00/t on Thursday, up £3.50/t over the same period.

On Thursday, AHDB published the latest UK human and industrial cereal usage figures, which includes information on cereal usage by flour millers, brewers, maltsters and distillers (BMD), and oat millers, up to December. See Thursday’s GMD for a round-up of the data.

On the same day, AHDB also published the latest cereal usage data for GB animal feed production, click here to see the full set of results.

Rapeseed focus

Paris rapeseed futures (May-23) gained €4.75/t last week, to close on Friday at €545.25/t feeling strength from soyabean markets. Friday saw gains across the Winnipeg canola futures, which added to the support seen in rapeseed last week and sheltered rapeseed from losses seen in crude oil.

Delivered prices followed futures movement last week, a weakening pound sterling against the euro added to gains. On Friday, delivered rapeseed into Erith (Feb-23 delivery) was quoted at £481.00/t, up £8.00/t Friday to Friday.

Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here: https://ahdb.org.uk/news/arable-market-report-06-february-2023

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Monday 13 February 2023

UK focus​

UK feed wheat futures followed the upward price movement seen in global wheat futures last week. The May-23 contract gained 2.8% (£6.65/t) Friday – Friday, and new crop futures (Nov-23) climbed 3.3% (£7.60/t) over the same period.

Feed wheat delivered into East Anglia (Feb-23 delivery) was quoted at £236.50/t on Thursday, up £6.00/t over the week. Bread wheat delivered into the North West (Feb-23 delivery) was quoted at £316.50/t on Thursday, up £5.50/t over the same period.

On Friday, AHDB published its annual Agri Market Outlook: Winter 2023. The latest Cereals and Oilseeds Agri-Outlooks take stock of the current situation and look forward to what we might expect in the coming months, for supply availability, trade and demand.

AHDB also published the latest HMRC UK trade data on Friday, which includes important information on exports and imports of key commodities, up to December 2022. The UK recorded promising wheat and barley exports, at 144Kt and 117Kt respectively in December.

Rapeseed focus​

Driving support in rapeseed prices last week was the support in nearby Brent Crude Oil futures, which gained 8% across the week to close Friday at $86.39/barrel. Paris rapeseed futures (May-23) closed Friday at €550.50/t, gaining €5.25/t across the week.

Delivered rapeseed (into Erith, Feb-23) was quoted at £476.00/t on Friday, down £5.00/t on the Friday before. There was pressure on our domestic market due to the Paris market gaining Friday afternoon, when our survey was conducted mid-morning. Also, sterling strengthened across the week (+1.16%) against the euro. Trading closed Friday at £1 = €1.1292.

The latest HMRC UK trade data, published on Friday saw rapeseed imports at 24.8Kt for December 2022, all EU origin, the second lowest month so far this marketing year. It brings total rapeseed imports for 2022/23 (Jul – Dec) to 431Kt.


Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here: https://ahdb.org.uk/news/arable-market-report-13-february-2023

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Monday 20th February 2023

UK grain markets

UK feed wheat futures have remained relatively stable week-on-week, with May-23 futures increasing £0.25/t last week (Friday-Friday), closing at £241.25/t. Whilst both Paris and Chicago wheat futures saw small declines in old crop prices (May-23). New crop futures (Nov-23) closed at £236.90/t on Friday, up £0.40/t over the same period.

The sterling has weakened slightly against the euro and the US dollar last week, down 0.4% and 0.2% respectively Friday to Friday.

Domestic delivered prices followed the direction of UK feed wheat futures movements Thursday to Thursday, which was of some overall support. Feed wheat delivered into East Anglia (Feb-23 delivery) was quoted at £238.00/t on Thursday, up £1.50/t. Bread wheat delivered into the North West (Feb-23 delivery) was quoted at £317.50/t, up £1.00/t over the same period.

Catch up on AHDB’s Cereals and Oilseeds Agri Market Outlooks through the most recent Food & Farming podcast.

Rapeseed focus​

Rapeseed prices gained broadly in line with the support in soyabean oil and palm oil markets. Paris rapeseed futures (May-23) closed at €564.50/t on Friday, gaining €14.00/t across the week (Friday to Friday).

Delivered rapeseed (into Erith, Feb-23) was quoted at £484.00/t on Friday, up £8.00/t across the week. The reason for the Paris market gaining more than our domestic physical market was due to the time of our delivered survey on Friday, which did not capture the late support on Friday afternoon.

Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here: https://ahdb.org.uk/news/arable-market-report-20-february-2023

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​

 

[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Monday 27 February 2023

UK grain markets

UK feed wheat futures (May-23) fell £14.25/t last week, to close on Friday at £227.00/t. This followed global grain markets, particularly European market movements. New-crop futures (Nov-23) saw less pressure on the week, falling £5.90/t over the same period to close on Friday at £231.00/t. Moving new-crop prices to a premium to old-crop.

Domestic delivered prices followed futures movements (Thursday to Thursday). Feed wheat delivered into East Anglia (Mar-23 delivery) lost £7.00/t last week, quoted on Thursday at £232.00/t.

Bread wheat delivered into the North West (Mar-23 delivery) fell £8.50/t last week, to be quoted on Thursday at £310.50/t. New-crop bread wheat into the North West (Nov-23 delivery) was quoted on Thursday at £315.00/t, £81.00/t over the UK feed wheat (Nov-23) futures close on the same day.

Rapeseed focus​

Rapeseed prices felt pressure last week from soyabeans, as well as pressure from the Australian canola harvest coming to the export market. Paris rapeseed futures (May-23) closed Friday at €542.00/t, down €22.50/t across the week. Domestic rapeseed (into Erith, Mar-23) was quoted at £472.00/t on Friday, down £13.00/t across the week.

Stratégie Grains in their latest oilseed report have revised up their EU-27 rapeseed crop forecast for harvest 2023 to 19.6Mt, from 19.5Mt previously. Rapeseed plants are reported in satisfactory conditions, though some rain is needed in parts of western Europe.

Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here: https://ahdb.org.uk/news/arable-market-report-27-february-2023

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