I believe your predictions for commodities to be spot on , but I think agri businesses operate all over the world regardless of subsidies though .The cash will be aimed at environmental goods, not just propping up agribusinesses like Agrii, Fendt and Vaderstad. Many folk haven't grasped the fact that that they will have to work a lot harder to get it from that different direction. Agricultural production will reduce and certainly de-intensify, or farmed normally on a smaller % of the farm. In my opinion, anyway. What's your view?
Well I was looking forward to it and very positive about it, I saw that we might get the chance to move onto more poorer arable type land work our stock like in the US /Canada / NZ style on the basis of low rental value , Also grow crops for my own use (with perhaps an odd cash crop but not all arable cash cropping as most do now) , erase the straw/ winter fodder cost issues by being more self sufficient , without massive capital inputs also not be tarmac farming alot of the time chasing small bits of land . I felt it would be possible to compete with bigger farms with our low overheads and resourcefulness/flexibility as long as the sub was removed and land rent consequently low .
I tend to idolise the pre war tenants like Cherrington, Brun etc
and their methods that I have read about .
But now personally I can only see us losing our mainly marginal land to ELMS and the rent on the remaining farmable land being uneconomic due to the setaside effect whilst straw and other stock feeds etc being expensive due to the consequent reduced crop areas (also some of the prescriptive policies about to be inflicted on arable farmers) and our summer pastures will probably be flooded to grow unproductive rushes etc . (no I dont see producing 3 year old highland bullocks as the answer to competeing on the world market without sub) . The imports will arrive one day and we have to be able to work at that level that means cheaper land costs etc (rent) or subsidy- not prescriptions , so I see park keeping on the horizon for those who own their land .
I read that you saw AB15 etc as the way forward for you for a very significant % of your farm area for example .
I think that UK ag needs to get of its high horse and red tractor etc and accept a ton of feed wheat is a ton of feed wheat and work out how to competitively grow it .
So with the high stock prices I keep thinking perhaps we should walk away but I dont want to and I dont think I have the guts too .