Anyone else wondering why the food trade think prices will rise?

[Cowmangav]

The Chancellor says trading regulations may vary after Brexit , and the food industry says this will cause food prices to rise. If food prices are to an extent set by the cost of imports - and EU regs don't change , then produce will enter as before? Changing our production rules might cause us problems when we export , with product being dammed back in the home market - which I wouldn't expect would cause a rise in prices.Just the reverse I'd have thought but what do I know ?

 

[glasshouse]

The Chancellor says trading regulations may vary after Brexit , and the food industry says this will cause food prices to rise. If food prices are to an extent set by the cost of imports - and EU regs don't change , then produce will enter as before? Changing our production rules might cause us problems when we export , with product being dammed back in the home market - which I wouldn't expect would cause a rise in prices.Just the reverse I'd have thought but what do I know ?

Yes, but we import far more than we export

 

[Cowmangav]

Yes, but we import far more than we export

Quite so , then unless the pound wilts , prices won't rise?

 

[deleted user 837354]

Differing labelling, traceablity and assurance requirements being introduced are surely going to add cost to operations involved. Once the market shifts around and works out which way to go forward and sorts it's supply chain, I dare say there may be price reductions, particularly if the UK forms a for real trade agreement that gives preferential access to some other supplier we currently can't get product from. For example the UK might currently get melons from Honduras and Guatemala, but it may be that Yemen (just for example) are suddenly in the game as well.

Don't underestimate the political utility or trade agreements. We buy your watermelons, you buy our surface to air missiles, etc.

I do not believe the UK farming industry should fear imports from the USA. The UK consumer can already buy cheaper beef etc from places like Namibia but you never see it on supermarket shelves. I don't believe the British public would buy Namibian beef, and I doubt they will want to buy American beef because of the perceptions of the use of AGPs or growth hormones. Nothing sells newsprint in the UK like a food scare.

 

[FonterraFarmer]

No more German cars either, everyone will have to drive Landrovers and Jaguars

 

[Tarw Coch]

The Chancellor says trading regulations may vary after Brexit , and the food industry says this will cause food prices to rise. If food prices are to an extent set by the cost of imports - and EU regs don't change , then produce will enter as before? Changing our production rules might cause us problems when we export , with product being dammed back in the home market - which I wouldn't expect would cause a rise in prices.Just the reverse I'd have thought but what do I know ?

The cynic in me thinks the food industry will use any excuse they can to put prices up/increase profit margins.

 

[Frank-the-Wool]

Differing labelling, traceablity and assurance requirements being introduced are surely going to add cost to operations involved. Once the market shifts around and works out which way to go forward and sorts it's supply chain, I dare say there may be price reductions, particularly if the UK forms a for real trade agreement that gives preferential access to some other supplier we currently can't get product from. For example the UK might currently get melons from Honduras and Guatemala, but it may be that Yemen (just for example) are suddenly in the game as well.

Don't underestimate the political utility or trade agreements. We buy your watermelons, you buy our surface to air missiles, etc.

I do not believe the UK farming industry should fear imports from the USA. The UK consumer can already buy cheaper beef etc from places like Namibia but you never see it on supermarket shelves. I don't believe the British public would buy Namibian beef, and I doubt they will want to buy American beef because of the perceptions of the use of AGPs or growth hormones. Nothing sells newsprint in the UK like a food scare.

There are large quantities of Namibian beef still coming here and it will continue to come post brexit tariff free. Over a quarter of their beef comes here.
You don't see it on supermarket shelves but I guess a huge amount is put into the catering trade as cheap mince. Similar to Bookers who use all Australian beef, which of course is now owned by Tesco.
Sadly many people have no idea what they are eating these days or have the faintest idea of where it has come from as long as it is cheap.

 

[GeorgeK]

Supermarkets have invested heavily into screwing their current suppliers into a fine dust. If the market gets shaken up it will them take several years of hard work to destroy the hopes and dreams of their new suppliers and get things back on track and prices down again

 

[egbert]

Short term, any increased border checks/confusion that cause a queue might affect perishable fruit/veg I suppose.
You probably wouldn't want such stuff sat in an hgv waiting for any more time than budgeted.

but then, same goes for lamb leaving!

 

[wr.]

No more German cars either, everyone will have to drive Landrovers and Jaguars

Sat in the carpark in town for half an hour last night waiting for her indoors. I did my own little survey. 22 cars came into the carpark in that time of which 12 were Audi, 3 Mercedes, 1 Renault, 1 Fiat, 3 Toyota and two Vauxhall.

 

[M-J-G]

No more German cars either, everyone will have to drive Landrovers and Jaguars

Oh sh1t

Lots of farmers will be walking then

 

[Campani]

A whole new set of regulations means a whole a new set of lawyers, new packaging. All the extra costs of completely changing the supply chain must soon add up.
May be cheaper in the long run, but I don't think many supermarkets etc think beyond five years.

 

[puppet]

May be cheaper in the long run, but I don't think many supermarkets etc think beyond five years.

They think in terms of share price, sales growth aand market share. Nothing else matters at thr AGM

 

[uztrac]

Oh sh1t

Lots of farmers will be walking then

Some of course drive Aston Martins,Rolls Royce,Bentley,Morgans, etc etc !!

 

[Sid]

Sat in the carpark in town for half an hour last night waiting for her indoors. I did my own little survey. 22 cars came into the carpark in that time of which 12 were Audi, 3 Mercedes, 1 Renault, 1 Fiat, 3 Toyota and two Vauxhall.

Posh doggers round your way then ???

 

[GeorgeK]

Sat in the carpark in town for half an hour last night waiting for her indoors. I did my own little survey. 22 cars came into the carpark in that time of which 12 were Audi, 3 Mercedes, 1 Renault, 1 Fiat, 3 Toyota and two Vauxhall.

All of them brand new and on monthly payments that are just the wrong side of affordable. Only the 1991 Toyota Corolla with 400,000 miles on is owned outright. Tight git's probably a multi-millionaire

 

[Tarw Coch]

All of them brand new and on monthly payments that are just the wrong side of affordable. Only the 1991 Toyota Corolla with 400,000 miles on is owned outright. Tight git's probably a multi-millionaire

You’re certainly right that you can’t guess someone’s wealth from the car that they drive allthough it does often seem inversely proportional

 

[wr.]

All of them brand new and on monthly payments that are just the wrong side of affordable. Only the 1991 Toyota Corolla with 400,000 miles on is owned outright. Tight git's probably a multi-millionaire

And me sat in my W reg Hilux

 

[Goweresque]

The Chancellor says trading regulations may vary after Brexit , and the food industry says this will cause food prices to rise. If food prices are to an extent set by the cost of imports - and EU regs don't change , then produce will enter as before? Changing our production rules might cause us problems when we export , with product being dammed back in the home market - which I wouldn't expect would cause a rise in prices.Just the reverse I'd have thought but what do I know ?

They just can see that any disruption is a chance to hike prices and blame someone else. Whenever there is some sort of legislative business change that affects everyone, like going to a new currency, (as when the euro was introduced) or as when the UK decimalised, businesses always take that opportunity to lift prices, and blame the changes. The retailers and processors are just laying the groundwork now.

 

[Cowabunga]

I do not believe the UK farming industry should fear imports from the USA. The UK consumer can already buy cheaper beef etc from places like Namibia but you never see it on supermarket shelves. I don't believe the British public would buy Namibian beef, and I doubt they will want to buy American beef because of the perceptions of the use of AGPs or growth hormones. Nothing sells newsprint in the UK like a food scare.

Most beef is sold as mince and to the catering trade these days and, believe me, a whole lot of Namibian beef is used. Only beef from supermarkets and butchers plus some high end restaurants is labelled with origin and that is most probably the minority these days. In truth and for the most part, people don't care. They may say they do when asked but when it comes to shopping habits I contend that origin doesn't come high on the priority list most of the time.
We should be very wary of all imports that can significantly undercut our produce. We should be just as aware of strategic shipments imported specifically to devalue our peak and all season prices, such as Spring lamb and Summer strawberries.