Are we at the start of a major recession ?

[Hindsight]

Depends on what happens to credit. A sharp contraction in demand, which results in some businesses going to the wall, and job losses, could trigger a further contraction in demand as people then get scared of spending. A falling stock market has been shown to have the effect of making people feel less wealthy, which hurts demand. People with lots of personal credit may panic. Too early to say if those feedbacks will find traction. But the risk is there.

Equally, yes, it could spring back and recoup much of the lost gdp in subsequent quarters. But only if it's a short, shallow dip.

Be interesting to watch Mr Trump react. One of his clarion calls for past three years has been call the considerable rise in the US DOW Jones index. Here well time will tell.

 

[baabaa]

History indicates that the more 'theoretical' wealth suffers the greater relative value essentials gain. That should mean good news for farmers in such a scenario.

However, I'm not convinced there will be a major recession, still less a depression as mentioned in the OP. Following the disease's peak, there will be a massive economic boost from government and consumers as the 'relief' kicks in. This will be, in no small part, spurred on by the probable freeing up of a lot of residential properties and its corollary, a projected decrease in required future NHS spending. A case of it really being an 'ill wind'.


Still, I may be entirely wrong and it could all go t!ts up, but I don't think so.

interesting analysis
one could see how this bat bug could be very advantageous to governments with a looming boomer pension and healthcare problem.
unfortunately the age of average farmer puts him in the kill zone demographic,
whose feeling lucky?
sitting in airport as i write

 

[Danllan]

interesting analysis
one could see how this bat bug could be very advantageous to governments with a looming boomer pension and healthcare problem.
unfortunately the age of average farmer puts him in the kill zone demographic,
whose feeling lucky?
sitting in airport as i write

There are at least a coupe of threads complaining of farm land being too expensive, it's an ill wind...

Where to?

 

[ollie989898]

The FTSE will go down 10% just because I got out of bed the wrong way this morning. Investors are a fearful bunch.

 

[The Agrarian]

Pays to have some fear when it's your own money. I sold out of longs during mid to late January and began building shorts through February. It was the ideal storm brewing. A crazy blow off rally through Christmas and January that defied reason, meanwhile ignoring the total shutdown of a region 60 million people in China. However, what happens next is a bit more difficult.

 

[capfits]

Yip we will have a recession.
Travel and hospitality are already taking a fair bit.
How deep? We will just have to wait and see how well the coming situation is handled.
The levers are diminished due to previous efforts, and then there will be the very real question of people's health or economics?

 

[The Seeker]

Im not going to lie I've not really felt much difference since the last recession i was making a marginal living in 2008 and i'm still making a marginal living in 2019 but im still living

 

[Danllan]

Im not going to lie I've not really felt much difference since the last recession i was making a marginal living in 2008 and i'm still making a marginal living in 2019 but im still living

Are you a Who fan?

 

[steveR]

Serious supply issues across the board already and the impact is only just being seen. That's the practical bit

On the economic front this could balloon in to a global recession

I am old enough to remember how the last two recessions felt

Sadly, so am I

 

[TelesnaAg]

Trump announces relief measures in the making and oz shares - bank and oil stop the decline?

1. Where is the endless pile of money the USA has to do this - surely its the can kicked down the road yet again, at some point pain has to be had?
2. There's no evidence the fix will work - and investors are buying?
3. Trade was declining before this - so the fix wont reverse the overall trend.

Dead cat bounce will occur on markets - some underlying fundamentals have to change

Ant...

 

[Roger Perry]

Hopefully this event be a time to re-think how we chose to do business..........a catalyst you could say.
Instead of everything made at the lowest cost, shaving the last penny by employing workers of a communist country to produce our goods', why not bring that production back home, pay our own workers to manufacture whatever is needed, at the very least this may be a time to re-evaluate globalization......??

 

[Johnnyboxer]

Sadly, so am I

Me too

 

[Johnnyboxer]

Hopefully this event be a time to re-think how we chose to do business..........a catalyst you could say.
Instead of everything made at the lowest cost, shaving the last penny by employing workers of a communist country to produce our goods', why not bring that production back home, pay our own workers to manufacture whatever is needed, at the very least this may be a time to re-evaluate globalization......??

It’ll never catch on

People are conditioned to the ‘race to the bottom’

 

[Danllan]

It’ll never catch on

People are conditioned to the ‘race to the bottom’

Experience would indicate that you're wrong, people will see the benefits of it and it will happen, again. And then, once the current scare has been forgotten, things will probably drift back to where we are now.

 

[steveR]

Me too

It's contagious I suspect, this getting old thing...

Maybe we need a vaccine?

 

[M-J-G]

Global market down 2.5 trillion

 

[steveR]

Be interesting to watch Mr Trump react. One of his clarion calls for past three years has been call the considerable rise in the US DOW Jones index. Here well time will tell.

Now there is a HUGE inponderable!

According to The Donald, CV-19 is fake news....

The worrying thing, is that there are a an enormous number of his voter base that might even believe him...

 

[steveR]

Global market down 2.5 trillion

A Big Number indeed...

 

[ollie989898]

Markets change like the winds. It's either boom time or Beachy head. Fundamentals are the same. Demand will remain constant(ish), employment in most countries is on the level. Consumer confidence is good. Fundamentally the world is the same place. Asia is and will be considered high risk to many.

 

[steveR]

Now there is a HUGE inponderable!

According to The Donald, CV-19 is fake news....

The worrying thing, is that there are a an enormous number of his voter base that might even believe him...

Excellent article by Jon Soper on The Donald and CV19

Coronavirus: A problem unlike anything else Trump has faced

The coronavirus crisis is testing the US president, who wants the markets to thrive all the time.

www.bbc.co.uk