Bps and corn prices

[glasshouse]

Emigrate

 

[teslacoils]

I didn’t think you could harvest it or fertilise it . Is that both years or just at the end .

You may not use inorganic fert. Muck and digestate fine. You can harvest it but not during the "rest period". So it's sheep off or top, then juice on. Leave for 5 weeks, now bale and wrap, then beasts back on.

You may be thinking of the ab15.

 

[Farma Parma]

Rents won't drop. Ahas have barely changed from when wheat was half today's price.

Fbts are a little higher than 10 years ago.

Dont worry all us AHA tenants will be chasing our LL for a Legal Rent Reduction unless they show willing first.

 

[Farma Parma]

Indeed. Not saying that it was a good year for all.

But for every traditional tenant who can't make it pay, there will be a veg grower / ad plant / dairy along to hoover it up if they left.

None of them 3 up here !!
Whats an AD Plant none i know of in Northumberland at all

 

[glasshouse]

Where are all the surplus 40ft tracked lexions going to go with europe closed off?

 

[glasshouse]

None of them 3 up here !!
Whats an AD Plant none i know of in Northumberland at all

Is northumberland free of numbskulls?
I might emigrate there

 

[teslacoils]

Dont worry all us AHA tenants will be chasing our LL for a Legal Rent Reduction unless they show willing first.

I don't know the mechanic for aha rent reviews or how long they last, but surely they compare the known Bps reduction timescale and current crop prices with last times and change nothing? Might be a different kettle of fish in three years time. Anyway, not my area but if any aha folk packed up round here there would be a queue to take on the land even with no bps. And as mentioned, surely the productive capacity of the land can be considered in terms of potential stewardship income? So get aha rent of £80/AC, shove it all in gs4 as above, sit back and pocket £120/AC for five years for for zero actual work. Slippers on, light pipe.

Quick Google-fu suggests there are ad plants in Northumberland. If not, maybe get a co-op of growers and put one up.

 

[Farma Parma]

I don't know the mechanic for aha rent reviews or how long they last, but surely they compare the known Bps reduction timescale and current crop prices with last times and change nothing? Might be a different kettle of fish in three years time. Anyway, not my area but if any aha folk packed up round here there would be a queue to take on the land even with no bps. And as mentioned, surely the productive capacity of the land can be considered in terms of potential stewardship income? So get aha rent of £80/AC, shove it all in gs4 as above, sit back and pocket £120/AC for five years for for zero actual work. Slippers on, light pipe.

Quick Google-fu suggests there are ad plants in Northumberland. If not, maybe get a co-op of growers and put one up.

id say your correct with the time we had 50% deduction end of 2024 things will get very real for us all & id like to think regardless of grain/animal prices it will be affecting our bottom lines more than ever so hopefully we can act before then tho.

 

[Farma Parma]

Is northumberland free of numbskulls?
I might emigrate there

Plenty Hedges & smaller fields !! & bloody tourists

 

[Farma Parma]

Is northumberland free of numbskulls?
I might emigrate there

Beer is much cheaper south of the border also

 

[DRC]

You may not use inorganic fert. Muck and digestate fine. You can harvest it but not during the "rest period". So it's sheep off or top, then juice on. Leave for 5 weeks, now bale and wrap, then beasts back on.

You may be thinking of the ab15.

Yes it was the 2 yr legume I was thinking of

 

[DRC]

I don't know the mechanic for aha rent reviews or how long they last, but surely they compare the known Bps reduction timescale and current crop prices with last times and change nothing? Might be a different kettle of fish in three years time. Anyway, not my area but if any aha folk packed up round here there would be a queue to take on the land even with no bps. And as mentioned, surely the productive capacity of the land can be considered in terms of potential stewardship income? So get aha rent of £80/AC, shove it all in gs4 as above, sit back and pocket £120/AC for five years for for zero actual work. Slippers on, light pipe.

Quick Google-fu suggests there are ad plants in Northumberland. If not, maybe get a co-op of growers and put one up.

The AD plants around here want maize, beet and Rye. Never seem to want grass mixes.
It’s all good though , as can grow the 3 crops mentioned

 

[nonemouse]

Land values are increasing going to depend on grid infrastructure, land with grid connection and planning potential for solar is making up £800-£1000 per year. And land near enough to Ad plants are also on for decent rents plus digestate returned to land to cut fert costs.

 

[warksfarmer]

Morning,

It’s a constant thought and concern for me and must be for most others.

We all start to lose SFP this year which will have a massive impact on a tenanted arable unit such as ours.

yes we are diversified business but to unsustainably ‘prop’ a failing business model of arable production surely is not the way.

Stewardship will have to be brought in swiftly but where will myself and surely everyone else find the shortfalls?


Arable farming with all the investments in fert,chem and machinery certainly doesn’t make it profitable for re investment even with SFP!

Will corn prices reflect our losses? My opinion in no!
Will my landlord ‘give’ me the land to farm?

So what options are people thinking to create sustainability on the land they farm?

If you want to farm then you will have to subsidise it. Simple as that because within 18 months commodity prices will drop by 30% and settle bar a big weather disaster somewhere on the planet.

This is what ELMS is all about and why I’ve said before 50% of every farm out of production leaving 50% to be cropped by large outfits such as Dyson etc. If they put 50% 17,000 acres into ELMS then they’ll be looking for another 17,000 acres to crop to keep their current business model viable.

 

[Flat 10]

I agree, but its the loss of 20-25% of my arable land and BPS that will be painful for my overheads and cash flow.

Oh I see. That’s a bummer.

 

[farmerm]

Why would the land owner take £30 when they could take land back and just put it down to environmental scheme/ flowers.

Because EMLS is not going to offer landlords the option to put it all their ground into an environmental scheme that yields a £30+ an acre return and in adopting such measures for short term payments there becomes a real risk that the land may never be allowed to return to production ever if and when such payments cease to be attractive... Remember the ELMS pot will have to average far less than the £92/ac BPS budget and even if we ignore that perhaps 20-30% of the budget is going to end up usewhere, even £60/ac will not go far in establishing and managing flowers... It will require several times the area of the area put into environmental/flower to receive no further support if those environmental/flower areas are to be paid at a economically viable rate. Land owners might take back some areas for environmental payments but they will be snapping hands off for offers of £30/ac on the rest.

 

[farmerm]

Will stick my neck out and give this scenario.

Cereal cropping not as profitable as stewardship, so 15% land goes into stewardship (shift might take 2-5years to happen). No exportable surplus, grain price rises £30/t which replaces BPS loss. Plus a bit of SFI.

Only thing being inputs and machinery will go up in price if they see a buoyant grain price

40% of our farm allready in stewardship. I don't like it, but guaranteed income, more wildlife, less weather risk, less price risk, less machinery and labour cost, more time for family.

Meanwhile, OSR hits £500/t, wheat £212, but Mid Tier locked in for 5 years.

This is why we need flexibility to ELMS We need to be able to opt in and out, have payments available for biomass building fallow cover crops when markets look unfavorable but not be committed to a given area every years for the term of the agreement

 

[glasshouse]

Beer is much cheaper south of the border also

I had my last pint on saturday
Never again!!

 

[Bossfarmer]

"Take back control"

 

[AndrewM]

5. Convert 50% of high and very high risk land to permanent grass
This action will improve soil structure and soil organic matter levels, and protect against flooding erosion and runoff.

Land previously converted to grass can count towards this action and your payment for it. You will be paid £311/ha on top of the advanced level payment of £59/ha.



how many landlords might choose this options if they have the right type of fields.?