Combinables Price Tracker

[Gedd]

I was offered £175 feed wheat for Oct/ Nov today. Nov 19 £163 feed wheat.

Sold last 12 tons out of sheds today for £177

 

[Billboy1]

Sold some feed wheat for £180 for December this morning

 

[JCfarmer]

Sold 1 load of feed wheat yesterday spot for £177t, it would have been in the way with in 2 weeks.

 

[Farmer-George]

defra say 14.1milliom tonnes wheat
high end of the trade estimates I am told

if we do have 14.1 million tonnes some farmers have had a very good harvest

we will have a better idea of the actual come next june when the shed are being cleaned out

I know we have had decent yield across the board in the fens on winter sown crops. Spring crops not so good!

I wonder if there is less out there than everybody thinks?

 

[yellow belly]

I know we have had decent yield across the board in the fens on winter sown crops. Spring crops not so good!

I wonder if there is less out there than everybody thinks?

nfu came out with 13.7

the area harvested is another factor
some whole cropped and the defra survey of area has been changed in the past in November
one year they reduced harvested area by 50000 acres in November the markest uped prices £15 as we went from export parity to import parity
currently we still need to import less if defra are right
but if the south has enough on the books for export the north has lost vivergo but that may mean ensus uses more if it is available

 

[Fubar]

Any predictions for March 19 wheat price if we don't get a brexit deal?

 

[Clive]

Any predictions for March 19 wheat price if we don't get a brexit deal?

£ will tank - uk wheat will look cheap prices will rise

Tractors and fert will get expensive

Buy tractors and N, hold wheat ;-)

 

[chipchap]

Perhaps the Euro has more to fear than the Pound regarding a no deal scenario.

 

[curlietailz]

[QUOTE="Clive

Tractors and fert will get expensive

Buy tractors and N, hold wheat ;-)[/QUOTE]


Got all my 2019 N requirement in the shed. ( just gotta pay for it now !!)

 

[Pigless]

Perhaps the Euro has more to fear than the Pound regarding a no deal scenario.

long term I think the euro will drop, short term I think the pound will weaken.

 

[SRRC]

Any predictions for March 19 wheat price if we don't get a brexit deal?

Just trying to work out what will change post Brexit (deal or no deal) that will affect the price.
What moves the wheat price is worldwide supply and demand, not just of wheat but near substitutes like maize and rice. What happens in the UK has a very very marginal impact on that supply/demand balance and thus on world wheat trade, thus the conclusion must be that price won't change from that already factored in to the future values.
There may be some short term fluctuations caused by delivery hiccups, but I'd be surprised if the trade wasn't capable of dealing with that.
Personally I'd be more worried about damage to our livestock industry (who are huge consumers of wheat), the value of the $ and oil prices than Brexit.
I'm still of the opinion that in 20 years time we'll look back on Brexit and wonder what the fuss was all about.

 

[Fubar]

Just trying to work out what will change post Brexit (deal or no deal) that will affect the price.
What moves the wheat price is worldwide supply and demand, not just of wheat but near substitutes like maize and rice. What happens in the UK has a very very marginal impact on that supply/demand balance and thus on world wheat trade, thus the conclusion must be that price won't change from that already factored in to the future values.
There may be some short term fluctuations caused by delivery hiccups, but I'd be surprised if the trade wasn't capable of dealing with that.
Personally I'd be more worried about damage to our livestock industry (who are huge consumers of wheat), the value of the $ and oil prices than Brexit.
I'm still of the opinion that in 20 years time we'll look back on Brexit and wonder what the fuss was all about.

Agree that we have almost no impact on world wheat trade. However, any movement of the pound post brexit deal will have a massive impact on domestic prices.

 

[Andrew K]

£ will tank - uk wheat will look cheap prices will rise

Tractors and fert will get expensive

Buy tractors and N, hold wheat ;-)

Prob add chemicals to that list as well Clive?

 

[Clive]

Prob add chemicals to that list as well Clive?

Yes - I’m looking at buying ctl, teb, glyphosate for next year right now

Early buying ctl paid me dividends last year

 

[Andrew K]

Yes - I’m looking at buying ctl, teb, glyphosate for next year right now

Early buying ctl paid me dividends last year

Already bought my Avadex for the spring

 

[wellingtonfarmer]

Yes - I’m looking at buying ctl, teb, glyphosate for next year right now

Early buying ctl paid me dividends last year

Looking? Surely you are just buying it off market place?

 

[Brisel]

They never get any cheaper, do they? There’s the odd exception like Crystal but that’s down to generic flufenacet costing BASF sales. Ctl and teb are under threat of revocation too.

Enough, this is a crop price thread.

 

[Clive]

Looking? Surely you are just buying it off market place?

Probably yes but prices on there charge as supply demand and stock charges for the various ag chem vendor that supply via there now

I’m picking my moment !

 

[Clive]

They never get any cheaper, do they? There’s the odd exception like Crystal but that’s down to generic flufenacet costing BASF sales. Ctl and teb are under threat of revocation too.

Enough, this is a crop price thread.

Actually several chem product prices have come down as this season has gone on. If vendors get worried they might get left with stock they drop ptces

You are right though m, this should be discussed on the chem price tracker thread

 

[crazy_bull]

Just trying to work out what will change post Brexit (deal or no deal) that will affect the price.
What moves the wheat price is worldwide supply and demand, not just of wheat but near substitutes like maize and rice. What happens in the UK has a very very marginal impact on that supply/demand balance and thus on world wheat trade, thus the conclusion must be that price won't change from that already factored in to the future values.
There may be some short term fluctuations caused by delivery hiccups, but I'd be surprised if the trade wasn't capable of dealing with that.
Personally I'd be more worried about damage to our livestock industry (who are huge consumers of wheat), the value of the $ and oil prices than Brexit.
I'm still of the opinion that in 20 years time we'll look back on Brexit and wonder what the fuss was all about.

The unknown is what, if any tariffs will be forced upon us, something malt barley buyers are petrified of, hence very little appetite to buy old crop past march 19 atm..


C B