Yes it’s worth remembering that some of us do have to sell some off the combine . Anyone reading the crops price thread would think we are all selling wheat at £300 ton . In my opinion, paper trading and speculators shouldn’t be allowed in essential commodities . I usually buy fertiliser in June, but thought £280 was a big jump from the £197 I’d paid the year before so declined . I did come to my senses when it got to £350 and bought all we need then .Livestock farmers are being properly screwed at the moment.
I would say there's two very different types of arable farmer at the moment there are those that have still got a quarter, third or maybe half of there 2021 crop to sell and they bought there fert in June or July.
Then there's the other half who sold a lot off the combine and early on for £170 a ton and have only just bought their fert
I can understand people not buying early as storage is an issue. If your buildings are full of livestock and fodder, where do you put fertiliser .