Is it too late for AD

[D14]

We have been around 3 plants (2MW, 1MW and 500KW) over the last couple of weeks having a look see. The general consensus from all the operators was that is is now to late for an out and out AD plant for electricity generation as from planning to turn key would be extremely risky regarding the tariffs which are now questionable anyway at 2.24 for 500+ units. 250-500 at 5.90 they say is doable but still a risk.
Two of the plants were done in 2015 so were getting over 9p and one was back in 2012 so getting 15p.
They did all say however that if you could do gas to grid then look closely as that would still pay depending on the gas connection charge.
One distinct thing about them was that the two farm fed ones did not smell but the food waste one absolutely stank.

 

[maen]

I believe your research is correct. It is now in the hands of government to decide whether we hit our predicted target of 1000 units quoted by the NFU at the beginning of the green energy drive. I suspect we will have to wait until Brexit unfolds before government have a clearer view of what UK agriculture requires to be 'self sufficient'. Mr Gove has clear views that seem to include cheaper food but we will be an energy hungry country.

 

[thesilentone]

We have been around 3 plants (2MW, 1MW and 500KW) over the last couple of weeks having a look see. The general consensus from all the operators was that is is now to late for an out and out AD plant for electricity generation as from planning to turn key would be extremely risky regarding the tariffs which are now questionable anyway at 2.24 for 500+ units. 250-500 at 5.90 they say is doable but still a risk.
Two of the plants were done in 2015 so were getting over 9p and one was back in 2012 so getting 15p.
They did all say however that if you could do gas to grid then look closely as that would still pay depending on the gas connection charge.
One distinct thing about them was that the two farm fed ones did not smell but the food waste one absolutely stank.

Lots of assumptions here.

The plant ROI is affected by many things, like tariffs, energy market price, feedstock costs or gate fee whichever the case.

So, if you consider a 1.5MW CHP el only, taking 35k tons of food-waste per year with gate fee, I don't see the need for much tariff to show a very nice ROI........

 

[D14]

Lots of assumptions here.

The plant ROI is affected by many things, like tariffs, energy market price, feedstock costs or gate fee whichever the case.

So, if you consider a 1.5MW CHP el only, taking 35k tons of food-waste per year with gate fee, I don't see the need for much tariff to show a very nice ROI........

I think because its a question on a farming forum then we should assume they would all be farm fed plants so the gate fee becomes irrelevant in the grand scheme of things.

 

[thesilentone]

Some of the first AD Plants built in the UK taking food-waste were farmers, now many UK food-waste plants are on-farm.

Sadly, in the early days the NFU and Country Landowners were a little anti farmers taking food-waste. They feared too much regulation, however this was a bad call.

The Government see the massive disparity between a crop fed plant and the respective costs and output v food waste only plants.

In addition, please remember the main drivers behind AD are the European Landfill Diversion Policy and the Kyoto Agreement and energy produced from renewable's and CO2 reduction targets.

For the future the only real money in AD is if food-waste is the principle feed-stock, whether it be brown bin separated, supermarket, slaughterhouse, C&I or whatever (as long as it complies).

Who cares where the plant is located as long as their is a grid (gas and electrical) available?

Some of the first real entrepreneurs to embrace AD were farmers.

Farms produce lots of waste, sadly in the case of cow slurry it is mostly water. It really does not take allot of the right type of DM to boost performance and profitability.

I think large scale federated plants using farm waste has a strong future, once we open up and dig into the pandoras box called the Environment.

 

[D14]

Some of the first AD Plants built in the UK taking food-waste were farmers, now many UK food-waste plants are on-farm.

Sadly, in the early days the NFU and Country Landowners were a little anti farmers taking food-waste. They feared too much regulation, however this was a bad call.

The Government see the massive disparity between a crop fed plant and the respective costs and output v food waste only plants.

In addition, please remember the main drivers behind AD are the European Landfill Diversion Policy and the Kyoto Agreement and energy produced from renewable's and CO2 reduction targets.

For the future the only real money in AD is if food-waste is the principle feed-stock, whether it be brown bin separated, supermarket, slaughterhouse, C&I or whatever (as long as it complies).

Who cares where the plant is located as long as their is a grid (gas and electrical) available?

Some of the first real entrepreneurs to embrace AD were farmers.

Farms produce lots of waste, sadly in the case of cow slurry it is mostly water. It really does not take allot of the right type of DM to boost performance and profitability.

I think large scale federated plants using farm waste has a strong future, once we open up and dig into the pandoras box called the Environment.

But I think the question today is based mainly around farm fed plants rather than waste food plants even though waste food was the initial setup reasoning for the first plants.

Out of the 1000 plants originally required does anybody know how many are up and running or in planning?

 

[thesilentone]

But I think the question today is based mainly around farm fed plants rather than waste food plants even though waste food was the initial setup reasoning for the first plants.

Out of the 1000 plants originally required does anybody know how many are up and running or in planning?

Most people in the Industry know exactly how many plants are up and running, how many are in the pipeline, how many have pre-accreditation and what future digression is looking like. In addition they also know the type of plants, the installed capacity and the conversion ration.

The original aspiration was 1200 plants, 1000 on-farm and 200 waste plants, however this figure was plucked out of the air and without any substance.

 

[sjt01]

Out of the 1000 plants originally required does anybody know how many are up and running or in planning?

The running ones are on here:
http://adbioresources.org/map

 

[D14]

The running ones are on here:
http://adbioresources.org/map

If you tick all the boxes in the search facility it lists 550 so even with some in planning or construction not on the list, its some way short of the 1000 figure quoted. If that then affects the commitments made to have 'x' amount of green energy production then will they reopen AD up again properly to allow more investment into it?

 

[thesilentone]

I think because its a question on a farming forum then we should assume they would all be farm fed plants so the gate fee becomes irrelevant in the grand scheme of things.

If you tick all the boxes in the search facility it lists 550 so even with some in planning or construction not on the list, its some way short of the 1000 figure quoted. If that then affects the commitments made to have 'x' amount of green energy production then will they reopen AD up again properly to allow more investment into it?

Yes, I think there will be a new impetus, the question is when?

 

[D14]

Yes, I think there will be a new impetus, the question is when?

Or will they do it with solar because if it comes down to getting a number of MegaWatts produced by green methods then solar scores big as 100 acres can get 20-25 MW where as AD plants are down at 1-2MW generally. Solar allows farming to continue under the panels with grass production for grazing where as AD wipes out large areas of land for crop production solely into the plant and no longer for food production.
I think unless its in the North Sea we all know wind turbines are generally a disaster in hindsight as so many of them don't hit targets unless the site is perfect.
Biomass might still be an option but again like AD its only small numbers really and its getting to the point when the fuel is becoming cost prohibitive at current tariff levels.
I just don't see AD as the answer and shutting solar down may come back to bite them.

 

[thesilentone]

There is enough off-shore wind in the pipeline to keep them quiet for next 5 years.

In addition AD should be allowed to compete for non-food hectares.

 

[sjt01]

Or will they do it with solar because if it comes down to getting a number of MegaWatts produced by green methods then solar scores big as 100 acres can get 20-25 MW where as AD plants are down at 1-2MW generally. .

Don't forget the figure for solar is for the peak, only a very few hours a day at that output, where AD is usually running 24/7 at close to rated output

 

[D14]

Don't forget the figure for solar is for the peak, only a very few hours a day at that output, where AD is usually running 24/7 at close to rated output

Yes but to produce 1MW from AD you need about 1000ac of crops or around 25,000 tonnes. Solar needs 5 acres for 1MW and now with batteries it can fire onto the grid 24hrs per day. I suspect solar will be the answer as you can now get solar panelled car roofs and even solar panelled roads in the USA.

 

[Will Wilson]

How would everyone rate their AD experience so far?

 

[thesilentone]

Solar is logistically easy, however not very efficient. As you know battery technology in conjunction to solar is in it's infancy with years of development ahead.
AD is base-load, and highly efficient with allot more that energy generation to it's portfolio.

Long-term the Environmental benefits of AD will be realised, as more and more Digestate is spread to land.

Protection and maintenance of the land that feeds us, and our soil needs to come up the agenda.

 

[Chippy]

How would everyone rate their AD experience so far?

Great so far

 

[Whynot]

How would everyone rate their AD experience so far?

Can't complain Will. You've delivering some panels next week to the Coventry area for us. It must be going ok as we can just about afford some of your "premium" product!!

 

[Will Wilson]

Never doubted it.

 

[sjt01]

How would everyone rate their AD experience so far?

First 5 years were very hard work, and expensive on maintenance. Now we have changed most of the machinery and replaced the control system, its much more reliable and costs much less to maintain.

However the digestion process always has a few tricks up its sleeve. After the best month's gas yield ever earlier this year, it is now sulking for no apparent reason. Done lots of lab analyses, trace elements OK. Perhaps your magic enzymes will help! Francis Auchincloss should be here tomorrow