Store lamb prices

[Greythundercloudys]

Anybody who sold stores over the last few weeks must be happy with the prices, as its about 10 weeks to d day, a lot of those stronger lmbs will be away, but a lot of smaller ones are making 55/57, no bother, these guy will still have most of these lmbs come November, so what's these lmbs going to be making after that, they are taking a big gamble in everything being OK. 7 no 8

 

[Still Farming]

Stupid prices down here.
Good 32- 36 kg texel x £60- 68 mark?
Whats the point fattening???
Buy them, time worm, fly treat ,few die , brexit and winter you want a good crystal ball ?

 

[Bones]

Anybody who sold stores over the last few weeks must be happy with the prices, as its about 10 weeks to d day, a lot of those stronger lmbs will be away, but a lot of smaller ones are making 55/57, no bother, these guy will still have most of these lmbs come November, so what's these lmbs going to be making after that, they are taking a big gamble in everything being OK. 7 no 8

we won't be leaving in October ,, are people believing this no deal crap? Seriously come on

 

[Greythundercloudys]

Maybe they will be very scares come feb/March time, and maybe a good price, l defo think shorter keep lmbs are abit cheaper this week, a couple of pound, but medium are just the same. I hope those brave buyers double there money for everyone sake.

 

[Woolless]

Short keep stores being bought I can understand and longer term lambs are a reasonable prospect, as we can count on numbers tightening in the new year. But I can't understand those buying lambs that will be ready in the final quarter of 2019 at what is pretty strong money by normal standards. Must just be the amount of grass and the beef job is hardly enticing either.

 

[gone up the hill]

Short keep stores being bought I can understand and longer term lambs are a reasonable prospect, as we can count on numbers tightening in the new year. But I can't understand those buying lambs that will be ready in the final quarter of 2019 at what is pretty strong money by normal standards. Must just be the amount of grass and the beef job is hardly enticing either.

If you didn't do anything because of what might happen then you shouldn't be farming!

You could buy say long keep store lambs and they could be wiped out by a winter like 1963 so would you never buy store lambs because you may get a bad winter once in the next 50 years??

If store lambs that are being bought now are only worth say £50 come November their store replacements will only be making £30 so its all relative at the end of the day!

 

[Still Farming]

If you didn't do anything because of what might happen then you shouldn't be farming!

You could buy say long keep store lambs and they could be wiped out by a winter like 1963 so would you never buy store lambs because you may get a bad winter once in the next 50 years??

If store lambs that are being bought now are only worth say £50 come November their store replacements will only be making £30 so its all relative at the end of the day!

Untill you loose.

 

[gone up the hill]

Untill you loose.

The farmers that will lose out if prices collapse will be the store lamb sellers and not the buyers!

 

[Still Farming]

The farmers that will lose out if prices collapse will be the store lamb sellers and not the buyers!

If you have bought dear and prices collapse I can guarantee buyers will suffer?

 

[Woolless]

If you didn't do anything because of what might happen then you shouldn't be farming!

You could buy say long keep store lambs and they could be wiped out by a winter like 1963 so would you never buy store lambs because you may get a bad winter once in the next 50 years??

If store lambs that are being bought now are only worth say £50 come November their store replacements will only be making £30 so its all relative at the end of the day!

Don't get me wrong, I'm very glad that there are plenty out there willing to chance their arm! However, to me those that are buying medium-keep store lambs at normal, or even stronger, money are taking a big gamble. This is not a normal year. All well and good saying their replacements are going to be cheaper but many will be putting them on to aftermaths etc. and won't buy later.

Fingers crossed something is sorted and trade continues as normal but anything other than the status quo will have some effect on trade.

If you don't do a little basic SWOT analysis and just bash on regardless, then you may not be farming long either!!

 

[gone up the hill]

If you have bought dear and prices collapse I can guarantee buyers will suffer?

Doesn't work like that!

If you sell a lamb prime today and it makes £75 head and buy a store replacement at say £55 head its £20 head difference.

Say prices do collapse post brexit ( which is very unlikely given that lamb is very short worldwide and prices in nearly every other EU and non EU country are at record levels ) and the prime lamb is worth say £50 and the store lamb replacement is bought for say £30 then its still £20 head difference!

Its the poor store seller who would lose out because instead of selling their store lambs for say £55 head they will only be getting £30 head so £25 head less than 12 months ago!

 

[Still Farming]

Doesn't work like that!

If you sell a lamb prime today and it makes £75 head and buy a store replacement at say £55 head its £20 head difference.

Say prices do collapse post brexit ( which is very unlikely given that lamb is very short worldwide and prices in nearly every other EU and non EU country are at record levels ) and the prime lamb is worth say £50 and the store lamb replacement is bought for say £30 then its still £20 head difference!

Its the poor store seller who would lose out because instead of selling their store lambs for say £55 head they will only be getting £30 head so £25 head less than 12 months ago!

But what if seller already sold all his lambs he be laughing and it will be the person who still got them (The buyers) headache.

 

[Woolless]

The example you give has a store being bought now at £55 and sold at £50 post Brexit?

I take your point about the world lamb price but if we don't have trade deals in place and it can't leave the country, then it's no help.

 

[gone up the hill]

The example you give has a store being bought now at £55 and sold at £50 post Brexit?

I take your point about the world lamb price but if we don't have trade deals in place and it can't leave the country, then it's no help.

It can still leave this country!

And every remainer report has food prices rising if its a WTO exit from the EU.

So how does that compute with remainers saying that farmgate prices will crash and their will be food shortages!


Complete BS and prices wont drop much if anything post brexit because beef/ lamb prices should be much higher than they are with the current exchange rate but they are not because brexit issues have already been costed into farmgate prices!

 

[gone up the hill]

But what if seller already sold all his lambs he be laughing and it will be the person who still got them (The buyers) headache.

There will always be winners and losers!

Most of the very big finishers buy store lambs and sell prime lambs every week from now until April or May!

 

[Still Farming]

There will always be winners and losers!

Most of the very big finishers buy store lambs and sell prime lambs every week from now until April or May!

Do they.

 

[andybk]

It can still leave this country!

And every remainer report has food prices rising if its a WTO exit from the EU.

So how does that compute with remainers saying that farmgate prices will crash and their will be food shortages!


Complete BS and prices wont drop much if anything post brexit because beef/ lamb prices should be much higher than they are with the current exchange rate but they are not because brexit issues have already been costed into farmgate prices!

absolutely agree the £/E on near parity should mean record prices now for time of year , though i think when we do leave the pound will take off back to usual level as financial markets will know where they are , i think long term the biggest hurdle will be a strong pound and weak euro when their financial problems catch up with them coupled with the loss of our contribution .

 

[Woolless]

It can still leave this country!

And every remainer report has food prices rising if its a WTO exit from the EU.

So how does that compute with remainers saying that farmgate prices will crash and their will be food shortages!


Complete BS and prices wont drop much if anything post brexit because beef/ lamb prices should be much higher than they are with the current exchange rate but they are not because brexit issues have already been costed into farmgate prices!

OK, some of it can leave the country but not in the normal volumes in the event of a hard Brexit.

I hope you're right but I think that you are blindly optimistic. In the event of no deal, my best case scenario is a difficult period for those selling fat lambs up until early spring when numbers tighten. With a bit of luck, things will be almost back to normal when the bigger numbers of the 2020 crop start to come forward.

 

[Greythundercloudys]

I don't think the numbers are there this year for some reason, the number at sales are lowish,

 

[Woolless]

I don't think the numbers are there this year for some reason, the number at sales are lowish,

If you're right, then that will be a help. Had a quick google and AHDB figures suggested reduction of 0.5m but that was a prediction, not based on census numbers.