First 2021 GB wheat production forecast

[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Last week we published our latest AHDB Crop Development Report, the report details the condition of crops in Great Britain. Using the report, we can produce an indicative forecast for 2021/22 wheat production.
In order to produce the estimates the following rules have been applied for estimating yield from crop condition ratings;

• Excellent – five year maximum yields
• Good – five year average yields plus 5%
• Fair – five year average yields
• Poor – five year average yields less 5%
• Very poor – five year minimum yields
• Unplanted or non-emerged wheat is considered to be average.

Using these values suggests GB wheat production could reach 14.57Mt, well ahead of last year’s poor crop and 6.6% ahead of the five year average. With tight production in 2020/21 and minimal carry out stocks, a 14.57Mt crop will only go some way to fulfilling demand and imports will be required.

Demand for wheat next season is likely to be strong, with the return to production at Vivergo in 2022. An important area in which to consider the supply of wheat is the North of England and Yorkshire. With strong demand in the region from bioethanol, starch, milling and feed, the area is often in deficit.

Wheat production in Yorks., the North East and North West is provisionally forecast at 2.57Mt, just 68Kt ahead of average. If there are production issues between now and harvest we may need to see delivered premiums stretch to pull wheat north or drag in imported wheat.

With this in mind, we also need to pay very close attention to the East Midlands and East of England. Production in those two regions is forecast at 6.78Mt, ahead of the five year average of 6.14Mt. If premiums extend in the North this wheat will be pulled up the country.

The current available data provides the first indication of GB wheat supply. In order to provide the best possible data to form assumptions and inform the UK grain market, please take 5 minutes to complete the Spring Planting and Variety Survey.

https://ahdb.org.uk/news/first-2021-gb-wheat-production-forecast-grain-market-daily
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[Lincsman]

Yorkshire and Humber wont reach the average, not enough of it got sown and what did a good proportion has been ripped up, due the waterlogging

 

[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Yorkshire and Humber wont reach the average, not enough of it got sown and what did a good proportion has been ripped up, due the waterlogging

Thank you for your reply. The estimates are based on our most recent crop development report which shows conditions at the end of March.

Winter wheat in Yorks and Humber was sown as 60% "good" or "excellent".

January this year was certainly wetter than average for many -presumably that is when most of the damage you have seen occurred?

Regards
James