- Location
- Chichester
We learn more each week about Russian Military tactics. Veteran correspondents describe the encircling and subsequent prolonged artillery bombardment of key cities as consistent with other actions most recently in Chechnya and Syria. With western Governments scrambling to re-arm Ukrainian defence forces, there seems no prospect of the war, or even its first phase, ending quickly.
LIFFE wheat was £54 up on the week (new crop +£30). Ukraine’s combined wheat and corn exports were pegged at 50mln tonnes this season, but they are barely half way through the corn programme with obviously no prospect of resuming, so the markets biggest reaction has been for the nearby months. Iraq indicated during Friday they would seek to buy more grain than normal in coming weeks as long term insurance. Expect to see more of this from other buyers as the outlook is so gloomy.
Ukrainian farms should be planting spring wheat and barley now, followed by corn in April, but they have no seed, no farm-workers and no fuel for their machinery. If a substantial loss of production in Ukraine alone is combined with an embargo on Russian grain sales – we stand to lose up to 85 million tonnes of wheat/corn from 2022 supply. The excellent condition of crops in some other origins – which had started to weigh on prices before the invasion - might put a dent in those numbers, but we are still contemplating lost supply at least as severe as the worst weather related crop failures seen in recent decades.
Ten years have passed since the last major crop failure of 2012 – which coincidentally also amounted to about 80 million tonnes - and in that time world consumption has increased dramatically and stock to use ratios have shrunk.
Home markets burst into life sporadically, particularly in the occasional brief lulls in the wild volatility. Many have remarked that it feels indecent to talk about market opportunities in such times, but we have to continue being professional and this is our job. Habitual long holders with grain left to sell will be bid eye-watering numbers this week, but there are markets to be traded, so call for a real time quote that you will have to either book on the call or come back again later for a refresh. Call 01243 755650
Have a good week.
LIFFE wheat was £54 up on the week (new crop +£30). Ukraine’s combined wheat and corn exports were pegged at 50mln tonnes this season, but they are barely half way through the corn programme with obviously no prospect of resuming, so the markets biggest reaction has been for the nearby months. Iraq indicated during Friday they would seek to buy more grain than normal in coming weeks as long term insurance. Expect to see more of this from other buyers as the outlook is so gloomy.
Ukrainian farms should be planting spring wheat and barley now, followed by corn in April, but they have no seed, no farm-workers and no fuel for their machinery. If a substantial loss of production in Ukraine alone is combined with an embargo on Russian grain sales – we stand to lose up to 85 million tonnes of wheat/corn from 2022 supply. The excellent condition of crops in some other origins – which had started to weigh on prices before the invasion - might put a dent in those numbers, but we are still contemplating lost supply at least as severe as the worst weather related crop failures seen in recent decades.
Ten years have passed since the last major crop failure of 2012 – which coincidentally also amounted to about 80 million tonnes - and in that time world consumption has increased dramatically and stock to use ratios have shrunk.
Home markets burst into life sporadically, particularly in the occasional brief lulls in the wild volatility. Many have remarked that it feels indecent to talk about market opportunities in such times, but we have to continue being professional and this is our job. Habitual long holders with grain left to sell will be bid eye-watering numbers this week, but there are markets to be traded, so call for a real time quote that you will have to either book on the call or come back again later for a refresh. Call 01243 755650
Have a good week.