Russian invasion of Europe

[hoff135]

Credible threat, or pure fantasy?

Imo, Credible because putin would love to if he could, I think he would calculate that the West would not use nukes so it wouldn't necessarily need to go down that route. If trump wins Europe may well be on its own

Fantasy because ukraine handed the Russians arses to them on a plate, if they couldn't beat ukraine what chance have they against the rest of Europe

However if you want peace prepare for war, time European countries got their act together, especially Britain, if we have 400bn available to throw away over covid we can spend the same and more over rearming. World War is a faaaaar bigger risk than covid ever was. Russias industrial base is in overdrive right now, if ukraine folds and we aren't ready then I don't think anyone could guarantee that he wouldn't try it in a couple of years.

 

[nivilla1982]

The west seems to prefer a strategy of deindustrialization.

 

[pellow]

I'll keep it short, Putin believes Russia is currently just surviving as a country and for it to prosper it needs to retake the teritory it held in the early 20th century, he knows this is going to alienate the West so must think the West will be irrelivant for Russia in the future, or that Russia will hold all the Trump cards in deals with West. He must also think turning most of his army into meat is all acceptable as a cost to achieve this.

The question is, how much of Russias resources and military is Putin prepared to expend to expand its territory, if you can work that out, you will know how much more territory he will take

 

[oil barron]

If Russia walks in to Poland at the same time as China launches on Taiwan at the same time North Korea attacks South Korea at the same time Iran launches on the Western Allies in the Middle East the west doesn’t have the capability to fight on all those fronts. It’s just a case of the bad guys being able to agree. Japan realizes this which is why it is going through the largest rearmament in history at the moment. Germany is trying to do the same if they can keep the greens out of the way.

 

[nivilla1982]

The Poles have been building up their military capacity the last few years.

 

[oil barron]

The Poles have been building up their military capacity the last few years.

Is it a Polish army or an extension of the German Army?

 

[nivilla1982]

Meet Europe’s coming military superpower: Poland

Warsaw is turning to major arms deals with South Korea to establish supremacy in Continental Europe.

www.politico.eu

 

[essex man]

Credible threat, or pure fantasy?

Imo, Credible because putin would love to if he could, I think he would calculate that the West would not use nukes so it wouldn't necessarily need to go down that route. If trump wins Europe may well be on its own

Fantasy because ukraine handed the Russians arses to them on a plate, if they couldn't beat ukraine what chance have they against the rest of Europe

However if you want peace prepare for war, time European countries got their act together, especially Britain, if we have 400bn available to throw away over covid we can spend the same and more over rearming. World War is a faaaaar bigger risk than covid ever was. Russias industrial base is in overdrive right now, if ukraine folds and we aren't ready then I don't think anyone could guarantee that he wouldn't try it in a couple of years.

"Pure Fantasy"
But, As you point out we threw away £400 billion on another pure fantasy of a threat ,so could easily do the same again.
Money printing is now impossible though, so we may arrive at the rational idea that if putin can't conquer Ukraine successfully, he won't bother looking further afield.
Humans appear to need a notional threat to their existence to feel content though so let's go with vlad for now, less harmful than covid.

 

[soapsud]

As it's Xmas, permit a little humour...

The corbynistas already have a solution for those worried about Putin invading Blighty.

They'll simply go for appeasement. All the armed forces, trident and all other associated industries relating to the supply and maintenance of weapons (inc. BAE systems!) will be disbanded and privatised. It's all been costed. The defence budget alone would more than satisfy Putin's requirement for more wealth and power but he'll get a whole lot more. In short, the money we spend on defending our country will go straight to Moscow and in return, we'll be beholden to Putin should the US threaten to re-vitalise our special relationship.

Phew!

Obviously we wont be part of NATO anymore but will now belong to REBAL or the Russian Empire's Baltic Alliance League. But rest assured that life here in the UK will carry on much as before - we'll just have fewer things to moan about - but what little that's left, we will be moaning a whole lot more about that.

Long Live Corbyn!

 

[uztrac]

Dependant upon the regime in the swamp we are very open to major disruption.
Block shipping passing through the Red Sea, is a case in point as a starter.

 

[kiwi pom]

Credible threat, or pure fantasy?

Imo, Credible because putin would love to if he could, I think he would calculate that the West would not use nukes so it wouldn't necessarily need to go down that route. If trump wins Europe may well be on its own

Fantasy because ukraine handed the Russians arses to them on a plate, if they couldn't beat ukraine what chance have they against the rest of Europe

However if you want peace prepare for war, time European countries got their act together, especially Britain, if we have 400bn available to throw away over covid we can spend the same and more over rearming. World War is a faaaaar bigger risk than covid ever was. Russias industrial base is in overdrive right now, if ukraine folds and we aren't ready then I don't think anyone could guarantee that he wouldn't try it in a couple of years.

Complete fantasy, any mention of it is pure propaganda to try and secure more equipment and funding for Ukraine.
"We have to fight them today in far off lands or we will be fighting in our own streets tomorrow" has been a line used to justify most wars and is generally bo**ocks.

Russia can barely hold a line a few miles from its own border against a weaker enemy short of soldiers and on ammunition restrictions. They do not have enough men or equipment to occupy a hostile Ukraine, any idea that Poland, Germany, the UK etc are at risk is pathetic.
Putin knows it and Biden knows it, that's why Ukraine isn't getting all the help it needs.
They do have nukes though, which is a situation that has to managed carefully.

 

[FonterraFarmer]

As it's Xmas, permit a little humour...

The corbynistas already have a solution for those worried about Putin invading Blighty.

They'll simply go for appeasement. All the armed forces, trident and all other associated industries relating to the supply and maintenance of weapons (inc. BAE systems!) will be disbanded and privatised. It's all been costed. The defence budget alone would more than satisfy Putin's requirement for more wealth and power but he'll get a whole lot more. In short, the money we spend on defending our country will go straight to Moscow and in return, we'll be beholden to Putin should the US threaten to re-vitalise our special relationship.

Phew!

Obviously we wont be part of NATO anymore but will now belong to REBAL or the Russian Empire's Baltic Alliance League. But rest assured that life here in the UK will carry on much as before - we'll just have fewer things to moan about - but what little that's left, we will be moaning a whole lot more about that.

Long Live Corbyn!

Capitulation causes more problems than it solves, it the recourse of failed politicians and leaders.

 

[FonterraFarmer]

Complete fantasy, any mention of it is pure propaganda to try and secure more equipment and funding for Ukraine.
"We have to fight them today in far off lands or we will be fighting in our own streets tomorrow" has been a line used to justify most wars and is generally bo**ocks.

Russia can barely hold a line a few miles from its own border against a weaker enemy short of soldiers and on ammunition restrictions. They do not have enough men or equipment to occupy a hostile Ukraine, any idea that Poland, Germany, the UK etc are at risk is pathetic.
Putin knows it and Biden knows it, that's why Ukraine isn't getting all the help it needs.
They do have nukes though, which is a situation that has to managed carefully.

Biden doesn't even know where he is is what day/month/year/decade/century it is!!!

 

[Charlie Gill]

I'd say if the lack of support for Ukraine continues into a 3rd year then the threat becomes more credible.

Let someone do what they want and they'll do what they want.

 

[kiwi pom]

Biden doesn't even know where he is is what day/month/year/decade/century it is!!!

He doesn't need too, he will be getting lots of guidance and opinion, from those who know what's going on, just like every president before him.

 

[kiwi pom]

I'd say if the lack of support for Ukraine continues into a 3rd year then the threat becomes more credible.

Let someone do what they want and they'll do what they want.

Putin isn't stupid enough to attack NATO.
The US military machine is too big. If the US really thought Ukraine was critical to world stability they would be doing more, don't you think?

 

[soapsud]

Capitulation causes more problems than it solves, it the recourse of failed politicians and leaders.

There was an old b&w WW2 film about the nazis supposedly invading the UK and the population accepting it. Lefty wetdream bollox, more like.

I grew up in a town where boxing and rugby league were big things. I can tell you most normal people wouldn't take invasion lain down. The Vichy government certainly prove your point.

 

[Danllan]

A general invasion of Europe isn't going to happen, France definitely would go nuclear if its homeland was threatened and even in a purely conventional war Russia would have the living sh!t kicked out of it, and knows it.

But... if Ukraine is not given the necessary to ensure Russia loses there, a series of small 'pecking' operations are not unlikely. I think Moldova would be the first target and, if all went well there, that a few pokes at one of the Baltic states would be next.

Yet NATO has to be seen to be resolute as well as effective; my guess is that Estonia would be the first target, being 30% ethnic Russian. I don't suggest that Russia would openly attack a NATO member, but I'd not be surprised if it were to encourage and support secessionists in the East, nor if 'little green men' were seen there. And then, when there was a a pretend state formed, Russia would act formally; but it would be a very cautious series of escalating steps.

What will stop this? Properly supporting Ukraine now.

 

[robs1]

Hopefully Putin will fall out of a window and a more sensible leader emerges

 

[FonterraFarmer]

He doesn't need too, he will be getting lots of guidance and opinion, from those who know what's going on, just like every president before him.

Does Biden even know what his own family members do???
For the Democrats to even have considered him as candidate for president is nothing less than elder abuse.