Store lamb prices

[cattleman123]

Burn the lmbs in this country will there worth 110+ in France. Brilliant can't wait for this to happen.

This is slightly different as we do know what the rules are in the different scenarios and it is not the blind leading the blind.

If there is the no deal scenario then trade stops until we accept WTO rules or a trade deal is struck.

Even if we accept WTO rules this will not happen overnight and for the sheep trade would mean our lambs would have to trade at a 40% discount to the present price or find ways of getting them out alive. I can see a lot of lambs being driven over the Irish border.

Where is this £60.00 store lamb price, it is not down here in the South East, while long keep lambs were better at Ashford on Friday, they were only low £50's with stronger lambs 36kg at around £57.00.

Pen after pen in the late 50s early 60s at Sedgemoor ..i am not buying any lambs this year until the job is sorted one way or the other, my cattle can have the extra grass...if they are a fiver dearer so be it. but hopefully then i wont be taking the risk that some guys are now... farmers following like sheep comes to mind with everybody saying its going to be ok but none of us has a clue.

 

[andybk]

This is slightly different as we do know what the rules are in the different scenarios and it is not the blind leading the blind.

If there is the no deal scenario then trade stops until we accept WTO rules or a trade deal is struck.

Even if we accept WTO rules this will not happen overnight and for the sheep trade would mean our lambs would have to trade at a 40% discount to the present price or find ways of getting them out alive. I can see a lot of lambs being driven over the Irish border.

Where is this £60.00 store lamb price, it is not down here in the South East, while long keep lambs were better at Ashford on Friday, they were only low £50's with stronger lambs 36kg at around £57.00.

lambs are trading at a 40% discount now, that has been priced in , as mentioned in another thread . the traders have been taking that since last february,its why lamb prices have been poor all through spring , exporters are having a bumper year . and will continue to do so till we actually leave as they are pocketing that discount . Lamb price worldwide is high due to pork issues in china . so apart from a few months trading issues long term looks ok . probably why small long keep lambs are doing well in comparison

 

[neilo]

We're paying people to advise us on this and they're spouting crap. It's the main reason I left the nfu. Why are there proposals to buy up sheepmeat? Just subsidise the tariffs.

‘No deal’ is just that, NO deal, not even a deal to trade with WTO tariffs. That comes after, and would be the default position, but it still has to be agreed before it applies.

Any ‘buy up’ plans are just a contingency in the event of the worst case scenario. Like any contingency plan, everyone hopes they will never be needed, but prudent to consider before the event.

 

[som farmer]

one of the positive things that might occur, is if we have to compete with imported food stuffs, it may force us down a route to produce a lamb/beef/pork product, that the public want, not what we think they want! you only have to walk through a marker and see the animals, licquorice allsorts come to mind !
nz lamb is a pretty standard product, for instance.

 

[LAMBCHOPS]

OK, some of it can leave the country but not in the normal volumes in the event of a hard Brexit.

I hope you're right but I think that you are blindly optimistic. In the event of no deal, my best case scenario is a difficult period for those selling fat lambs up until early spring when numbers tighten. With a bit of luck, things will be almost back to normal when the bigger numbers of the 2020 crop start to come forward.

Boris talking about lamb trade to US Which does not currently happen , China Japan the World is our trade partner!!

 

[neilo]

Boris talking about lamb trade to US Which does not currently happen , China Japan the World is our trade partner!!

Of course it is, but not on the day after Halloween, or for many months afterwards.

 

[Nithsdale]

Boris talking about lamb trade to US Which does not currently happen , China Japan the World is our trade partner!!

The world is not a trade partner. Each country has to be dealt with individually. That is slow and time consuming and deals can not be done until we leave the EU.

We are, or were, already talking to the US about sending lamb. It is a new/growing market. Boris isn't talking anything new...

But if they are to take our lamb after Brexit, we will be forced to take more of their beef and chicken as part of the deal.

 

[CopperBeech]

Where is the margin in a long keep above £40?

Buy at 60, kill at 90?

‘No deal’ is just that, NO deal, not even a deal to trade with WTO tariffs. That comes after, and would be the default position, but it still has to be agreed before it applies.

Any ‘buy up’ plans are just a contingency in the event of the worst case scenario. Like any contingency plan, everyone hopes they will never be needed, but prudent to consider before the event.

This is exactly their point.

It’s not scare mongering - someone needs to come up with a plan for the big if. If we have no deal, and in november, December etc a huge volume of lambs are ready to be marketed, but there is no market for them...... they have to go somewhere in order to safe guard future trade.

It’s not actually that mental - currently a lot of dead stock goes to bio fuel anyway, it’s just skipping a stage.

 

[LAMBCHOPS]

The world is not a trade partner. Each country has to be dealt with individually. That is slow and time consuming and deals can not be done until we leave the EU.

We are, or were, already talking to the US about sending lamb. It is a new/growing market. Boris isn't talking anything new...

But if they are to take our lamb after Brexit, we will be forced to take more of their beef and chicken as part of the deal.

Of course the wider World is a trade partner what did we do 500 years ago when we sailed to foreign parts with a full ship unload and bring a full ship back, we have been unable to dock in some ports due to EU Membership. World trade doors are opening some less than others some with different terms. Strong negotiations are needed and yes all individual countries have different terms like a farmers market

 

[Bury the Trash]

Just so happens that the best current market for them is 30 miles / half an hour away by the fridge lorry load.

?

 

[andybk]

Buy at 60, kill at 90?


This is exactly their point.

It’s not scare mongering - someone needs to come up with a plan for the big if. If we have no deal, and in november, December etc a huge volume of lambs are ready to be marketed, but there is no market for them...... they have to go somewhere in order to safe guard future trade.

It’s not actually that mental - currently a lot of dead stock goes to bio fuel anyway, it’s just skipping a stage.

i suspect some sort of deal will be done with europe if only a temporary one fairly quickly , the amount of perishable foodstuffs coming the other way from spain for example , means it cant be a one-way street for long , plus we will have the potential for world deals longer term,
Not being shackled to the EU means change , but the last 40 years has only benefited the supermarkets not us as farmers , had my lamb price kept up with inflation i would have voted the other way . Sub was not supposed to be part of the equation but landlords and suppliers ended up with most of it , so cant see i could be any worse off .

 

[unlacedgecko]

Buy at 60, kill at 90?

Buy at £60.
Haulage £2
Fluke and wormer £3
20 weeks keep at 75p per week £15
Haulage back £2

That's £82 with no losses or labour. It's bloody tight.

 

[Nithsdale]

Of course the wider World is a trade partner what did we do 500 years ago when we sailed to foreign parts with a full ship unload and bring a full ship back, we have been unable to dock in some ports due to EU Membership. World trade doors are opening some less than others some with different terms. Strong negotiations are needed and yes all individual countries have different terms like a farmers market

It is many trade partners not 1, is my point.

There's an awful lot of work to be done on many fronts by our politicians from 1st November. We have to hope Westminster put value on our own industries when doing these deals, and don't just sell is out to secure cheap imports (as has been promised by the leave campaign)

 

[andybk]

It is many trade partners not 1, is my point.

There's an awful lot of work to be done on many fronts by our politicians from 1st November. We have to hope Westminster put value on our own industries when doing these deals, and don't just sell is out to secure cheap imports (as has been promised by the leave campaign)

november 1st ,isnt not going to be day 1 , id be surprised if plenty of negotiation hasnt been going on behind the scenes , but we cant be told due to EU rules saying no negotiation untill we leave , the extra 6 month extension would have helped .Dont panic Mr Mainwaring ! (yet , lol )

 

[Bury the Trash]

So yet another benefit of brexit is that the supermarket dominance problem will be addressed

 

[Nithsdale]

november 1st ,isnt not going to be day 1 , id be surprised if plenty of negotiation hasnt been going on behind the scenes , but we cant be told due to EU rules saying no negotiation untill we leave , the extra 6 month extension would have helped .Dont panic Mr Mainwaring ! (yet , lol )

They can talk... but talk is all it is. We can not hold formal negotiations until we leave.
(A deliberate part of contractual small print with EU membership to make leaving less attractive.).

Whether anything meaningful has been talked about, who knows. But I very much doubt there's many (major) agreements in place... Canada for example were keen to deal with us right upto Boris talked hard on going for No Deal. They have now calmed off and said a deal can wait (knowing fine well it will strengthen their position when negotiations begin)

 

[MDL POWERUP]

The 40% has already been factored into buying lambs hence why we have the lowest lamb prices compared to France, Australia, nz. The difference is around 40%...

 

[Nithsdale]

The 40% has already been factored into buying lambs hence why we have the lowest lamb prices compared to France, Australia, nz. The difference is around 40%...

This 40% tariff...


Who gets the money? Where does it go? Does Westminster pay it on export, or is it the importing nation pays it?

 

[Bury the Trash]

This 40% tariff...


Who gets the money? Where does it go? Does Westminster pay it on export, or is it the importing nation pays it?

Youve got the wrong end of ghe stick to what he means.

The buyers , its the buyers that are cutting prices for finished lamb... as an assurance policy for what they think is to come and Tbf its good buisness on their part.


Trouble is when lambs are fit to go theyre fit to go.

 

[CopperBeech]

Buy at £60.
Haulage £2
Fluke and wormer £3
20 weeks keep at 75p per week £15
Haulage back £2

That's £82 with no losses or labour. It's bloody tight.

Buy at £60.
Haulage £2
Fluke and wormer £3
20 weeks keep at 75p per week £15
Haulage back £2

That's £82 with no losses or labour. It's bloody tight.

Alternatively

Buy at £60
Haulage £2
Fluke and wormer 67p (Flukiver 13p per dose and zolvix 54p per dose)
15 weeks keep at 40p per week (based upon a 30kg lamb averaging putting on 1kg a week) £6
Haulage back £2

Makes it £70.67 before losses, labour, fuel and wear and tear.

Which in a good year should leave a margin.