- Location
- South Wales UK
Strain B1.1.529
- Thread starter The Agrarian
- Start date
Probably Just Wales. Drakeford will become excited and rule with his Iron Fist. He's already been seen patroling with his megaphone in Cardiff. He said he'll draft the Scouts in if people don't listen this time.
holywell farmer
Member
- Location
- holywell, north wales
Charlie Gill
Member
- Location
- Kent
First thoughts re O from one of the more level headed modellers:
- Location
- South Wales UK
Charlie Gill
Member
- Location
- Kent
JBM update from South Africa:
• Data suggests share of Covid cases developing severe disease is lower than with Delta
• But lots of assumptions involved in putting a specific number on the reduction
• This doesn’t necessarily mean "Omicron is milder", it’s also consistent with immune protection
Things to ponder:
• Lot of differences between South Africa and e.g UK. Age profile, vax, what variants people been infected with. All could affect how patterns from SA translate elsewhere
• Uptick in ICU and vents in recent days could be due to cases spreading to older groups
threadreaderapp.com
• Data suggests share of Covid cases developing severe disease is lower than with Delta
• But lots of assumptions involved in putting a specific number on the reduction
• This doesn’t necessarily mean "Omicron is milder", it’s also consistent with immune protection
Things to ponder:
• Lot of differences between South Africa and e.g UK. Age profile, vax, what variants people been infected with. All could affect how patterns from SA translate elsewhere
• Uptick in ICU and vents in recent days could be due to cases spreading to older groups
Thread by @jburnmurdoch on Thread Reader App
Thread by @jburnmurdoch: Okay folks, still lot of uncertainty around severity of disease, but here’s what I’ve gleaned from latest data and many chats that @mroliverbarnes and I have had with the brilliant, tireles...…
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Charlie Gill
Member
- Location
- Kent
Charlie Gill
Member
- Location
- Kent
caveman
Member
- Location
- East Sussex.
Just a quick look at some of the dates of doses and the number of days between each would point to that being either unreliable, cobbled together nonsense or the results of a controlled group of guinea pigs.
Which is it?
Last edited:
Charlie Gill
Member
- Location
- Kent
It's a study of at least 4 German healthcare workers. It's not bad news Mr C, it just confirms that boosted doesn't give protection against symptomatic infection with O.
Charlie Gill
Member
- Location
- Kent
Re the above, UKHSA are suggesting there is some protection against symptomatic infection if you have been recently boosted.
early estimates of vaccine effectiveness (VE) against symptomatic infection find a significantly lower VE for against Omicron infection compared to Delta infection. Nevertheless, a moderate to high vaccine effectiveness of 70 to 75% is seen in the early period after a booster dose. With previous variants, vaccine effectiveness against severe disease, including hospitalisation and death, has been higher than effectiveness against mild disease. It will be a few weeks before effectiveness against severe disease with Omicron can be estimated, however based on this experience, this is likely to be substantially higher than the estimates against symptomatic disease. The duration of restored protection after mRNA boosting is not known at this juncture
early estimates of vaccine effectiveness (VE) against symptomatic infection find a significantly lower VE for against Omicron infection compared to Delta infection. Nevertheless, a moderate to high vaccine effectiveness of 70 to 75% is seen in the early period after a booster dose. With previous variants, vaccine effectiveness against severe disease, including hospitalisation and death, has been higher than effectiveness against mild disease. It will be a few weeks before effectiveness against severe disease with Omicron can be estimated, however based on this experience, this is likely to be substantially higher than the estimates against symptomatic disease. The duration of restored protection after mRNA boosting is not known at this juncture
caveman
Member
- Location
- East Sussex.
I was just surprised to see that vacs one and two were being administered with only a 2/3 week interval about a year ago when I understood the norm untill recently was a 6 or so week interval?
I would think the example shows second doses being administered before any second doses in the UK.
Charlie Gill
Member
- Location
- Kent
I think the manufacturers recommended 3 weeks, we spread it out to give some protection to more people.
essex man
Member
- Location
- colchester
Amazingly it looks like an incentive to get your booster!
Charlie Gill
Member
- Location
- Kent
The more people that get the reversal the better, we need to keep that hospitalisation ratio down through the winter.
Charlie Gill
Member
- Location
- Kent
To add to the above. Denmark have released a study (very small numbers!!) showing a conversation rate of 1.4%. If that, together with the infection forecasts for O are anywhere near close to becoming reality then we could see routine stuff being cancelled again.
essex man
Member
- Location
- colchester
In January lots of people die every year, will be no different this year.
Charlie Gill
Member
- Location
- Kent
You know when you sat down with those actual qualified scientists, did they not explain to you that not all hospitalisations lead to death? Surely that's common sense.
essex man
Member
- Location
- colchester
No need Charlie, it's obvious.
Sorry, my post was not written in response to yours, shouldn't have done it as a reply.
just a more general comment about what will happen.
essex man
Member
- Location
- colchester
Only the old people hospitalised die in any numbers as is always the case