Who will be the next PM, when and why?

[Danllan]

As per title, who and when and why. Not looking for personal preferences, just calculated opinions. I think:

Who? Rishi Sunak or Michael Gove most likely, then Raab, Brady and Mogg.

When? Next year, maybe even quite early, or well after the next General Election.

Why? If soon, because Boris doesn't do what the party as a whole - and especially the 'Red Wall' - is expecting; if later, because he did what he said and has had enough.

 

[capfits]

Presuming you are a member of the Tory Party and can get yourself elected to some seat where pigs with blue rosettes would get elected, how about yourself?

 

[Exfarmer]

I dont think he will hang about long after January, “ got Brexit done”!

 

[JCMaloney]

Nobody will want to step forward anytime soon until a lot of the stuff that hit the fan of late has been cleared up.
Around 2 years or so Sunak will be the steady hand on the tiller.

Starmer will still be trying to make Labour remotely electable........or abstaining.

 

[ollie989898]

I think Sunak is too young in the public mind and the country isn't quite ready for him yet. He would be a good fit in the future though.

Gove: I would rather vote red than see that bloke as PM. He is a greasy horrible bloke.

Much will depend on the way the government handles the next 12 months.

 

[Danllan]

I think Sunak is too young in the public mind and the country isn't quite ready for him yet. He would be a good fit in the future though.

Gove: I would rather vote red than see that bloke as PM. He is a greasy horrible bloke.

Much will depend on the way the government handles the next 12 months.

Regardless of whether you think it too soon for Sunak - presumably because he is a young Indian - or that Gove is wrong, if there is a change in, say, two years, and the next one does a really good job, that could see him given a mandate.

@JCMaloney mentions the 'socialist' Sir Keir Starmer... it seems that, as with his predecessor, Sir Keir has no opinions now that he has assumed the role of Labour leader. The abstention was utterly pathetic...

 

[caveman]

New year/spring.
Got brexit done Boris will want to get out.
Gove.
Shite doesn't stick and he is cock sure.
Worth sacrificing him before any others If it comes to that.

 

[upnortheast]

In parliment on Telly yesterday thought Boris looked rough. Maybe step aside sooner than we expect

 

[Treg]

As per title, who and when and why. Not looking for personal preferences, just calculated opinions. I think:

Who? Rishi Sunak or Michael Gove most likely, then Raab, Brady and Mogg.

When? Next year, maybe even quite early, or well after the next General Election.

Why? If soon, because Boris doesn't do what the party as a whole - and especially the 'Red Wall' - is expecting; if later, because he did what he said and has had enough.

I think probably late spring 21 , possibly Rushi or Raab but most likely a different face altogether to "try" and unite the party.
Why ? Because Boris can't manage on the wages and maybe a chance to unite the party after Brexit is done, while labour still hasn't got it's act together

 

[Goweresque]

The history of Tory Party leadership battles tells us that the front runners rarely win the race, there is usually a candidate that comes up late on the inside to confound the favourites(and that both sides of the party can unite around). John Major was a nobody among the big political fish vying for the post Thatcher crown, but he landed the job, Cameron was a newbie who no-one knew much about, Theresa May wasn't favourite in the immediate post Brexit vote betting. Boris is the exception, but it took him two goes at it to win. There's often something that happens to knock out the favourites and let an unknown slip through.

 

[ollie989898]

Regardless of whether you think it too soon for Sunak - presumably because he is a young Indian - or that Gove is wrong, if there is a change in, say, two years, and the next one does a really good job, that could see him given a mandate.

@JCMaloney mentions the 'socialist' Sir Keir Starmer... it seems that, as with his predecessor, Sir Keir has no opinions now that he has assumed the role of Labour leader. The abstention was utterly pathetic...

Not at all, I just think Sunak is percieved as being quite young in the public eye. The fact he has some Indian heritage would not concern me at all though I cannot say how this would fit in the minds of voters in general. I believe he may possibly be a strong contender for PM in the coming years but I don't think he will be the next PM. He hasn't been in the public eye for very long. Who had heard of him prior to the present government being formed? Besides, if has any sense he will avoid being in the hot seat for the next 4 years anyway.

 

[ollie989898]

The history of Tory Party leadership battles tells us that the front runners rarely win the race, there is usually a candidate that comes up late on the inside to confound the favourites(and that both sides of the party can unite around). John Major was a nobody among the big political fish vying for the post Thatcher crown, but he landed the job, Cameron was a newbie who no-one knew much about, Theresa May wasn't favourite in the immediate post Brexit vote betting. Boris is the exception, but it took him two goes at it to win. There's often something that happens to knock out the favourites and let an unknown slip through.

You raise an important point, who the Tory party select for the top job is a very different thing to who the public may wish to see in the job.

 

[Danllan]

You raise an important point, who the Tory party select for the top job is a very different thing to who the public may wish to see in the job.

Yes... but, the Tory party is also utterly ruthless regarding its leader; once the 'job' of Brexit is done, Boris will stay only so long as he can secure re-election or absorb flack for a successor before the next election.

A thing to bear in mind is that the process to bin Nick Clegg's idiotic Fixed-Term Parliaments Act started today; this gives Boris, or any other future PM, the chance that many of their predecessors had, i.e. to seize fortune by the foreskin and call an election when they think they have the best chance of winning it...

 

[ollie989898]

Yes... but, the Tory party is also utterly ruthless regarding its leader; once the 'job' of Brexit is done, Boris will stay only so long as he can secure re-election or absorb flack for a successor before the next election.

A thing to bear in mind is that the process to bin Nick Clegg's idiotic Fixed-Term Parliaments Act started today; this gives Boris, or any other future PM, the chance that many of their predecessors had, i.e. to seize fortune by the foreskin and call an election when they think they have the best chance of winning it...

I'm afraid I have minimal interest in politics today and have even less faith in the bulk of MPs and even less in government. I have given up wasting brain power or exhaled hot air thinking about politics any longer and consider the lot a waste of time. I'd be happier with a dictator in all honesty as things would get done.

 

[Danllan]

I'm afraid I have minimal interest in politics today and have even less faith in the bulk of MPs and even less in government. I have given up wasting brain power or exhaled hot air thinking about politics any longer and consider the lot a waste of time. I'd be happier with a dictator in all honesty as things would get done.

Careful now, you're sounding like some of the EUrophiles, well one anyway...

 

[Agrivator]

January/February will be a watershed for Boris. And who knows.............................

One thing in his favour is that all Opposition Parties are fairly useless. And the BBC will be preoccupied with the Martin Bashir scandal. And hardly anybody reads the Guardian.

 

[robs1]

January/February will be a watershed for Boris. And who knows.............................

One thing in his favour is that all Opposition Parties are fairly useless. And the BBC will be preoccupied with the Martin Bashir scandal. And hardly anybody reads the Guardian.

That maybe true but if bog roll gets short again they may have to use it for a better purpose

 

[kfpben]

Rishi; intelligent, approachable, speaks well, Northern constituency.

And a Southampton fan

 

[Danllan]

Rishi; intelligent, approachable, speaks well, Northern constituency.

And a Southampton fan

And a Wykehamist...

 

[kfpben]

And a Wykehamist...

Makes a change from Etonians!