Are UK wheat yields “Really Increasing”??

[Pilatus]

As above,or are UK wheat yields on a plateau despite what plant breeders tell us???

 

[Flat 10]

No. And they haven’t for a long time.

 

[Pilatus]

No. And they haven’t for a long time.

Would the above be applicable worldwide,providing each country has average weather to enable it to produce a harvest? Be good to hear from @Farmer Roy on the subject.

 

[Flat 10]

Would the above be applicable worldwide,providing each country has average weather to enable it to produce a harvest? Be good to hear from @Farmer Roy on the subject.

No idea out of our own little country. My feeling is that places like ukraine will be increasing as they get increasing access to technologies. I had a friend who worked out there for a decade and things I think were improving. Their soils are also probably slightly less degraded than ours.

 

[Gong Farmer]

Breeders may be increasing yield potential, but the weather laughs at that and any high yields are usually down to growing conditions (e.g. 2012 and 2015).

 

[David.]

Some land I farm still averages over 5yrs about the same as the Avalon it was growing in the 80s did. So I think that is the yield potential of that land.
Varietal improvement happens in % point increments against the control group in trials doesn't it, so perhaps 5% in 10 years which is probably realistic.
Let's not forget that Riband and Brock could do 5t/ac 25 yrs ago in a busting year, but they would not be average crops, they would be years when everyone had a flier.

 

[Kiwi Pete]

Would the above be applicable worldwide,providing each country has average weather to enable it to produce a harvest? Be good to hear from @Farmer Roy on the subject.

Not really - depends on the spend, which is risk related.
Fresher soils can be an advantage - '3 years in grass' is doubtful in terms of regeneration.
World record crops often have world record costs attached, obviously they don't shout about those.
Some of the past WR wheat crops are not far from here, but the inputs were pretty horrendous IMO
(See @Clive's variable cost thread).

 

[Bogweevil]

Global cereal production is projected to expand by 13% between the base period [2018] and
2027, mainly owing to higher yields. Production of wheat is projected to increase from
750 Mt in the base period to 833 Mt in 2027, with most of the growth in India (20 Mt),
followed by the European Union (12 Mt), the Russian Federation (10 Mt), Pakistan
(6 Mt) and Turkey (5 Mt). Maize production is expected to rise by 161 Mt to 1.2 bln t, led
by the People’s Republic of China (hereafter “China”) (31 Mt), Brazil (24 Mt) and the
United States (22 Mt). Production of other coarse grains is projected to increase by 29 Mt
to 327 Mt by 2027, with the largest increases in Ethiopia (5 Mt) and the European Union
(4 Mt). Rice production is projected to increase by 64 Mt to 562 Mt, with 84% of this
increase in Asian countries, led by India (20 Mt), Indonesia (8 Mt) Thailand (7 Mt) and
Viet Nam (4 Mt). Producers in the Least Developed Countries (LDC) Asian region,
which include Bangladesh, Myanmar and Cambodia, will increase rice production by
7 Mt by 2027

FAO http://www.fao.org/3/i9166e/i9166e_Chapter3_Cereals.pdf

 

[Chae1]

Whats our royalty money being used for then?

 

[SilliamWhale]

Whats our royalty money being used for then?

Incremental gains...

 

[teslacoils]

No.

And at the same time varieties are getting later and later to mature.

 

[Brisel]

No. Yields have plateaued.

Source: AHDB

Every new RL variety has to have a benefit above the rest. Grow it widely for a few years & those benefits e.g. disease susceptibility break down and the yield falls. The AHDB fungicide protocols would bankrupt any commercial farmer & they ignore the worst 1/3 of the results too. We're looking at a list of junkie varieties that benefit the input manufacturers.

 

[Properjob]

Yields have definitely plateaued over the last decade, despite the best efforts of plant breeders and agchem industry to supply us with the latest and the best products. in fact with respect to the latter we may be looking at a decline moving forwards. Better varieties is the way forward I think, not chems.

 

[B'o'B]

Grass weed control strategies on many farms has to be hurting yields to some extent now.

 

[Barry]

I think potential yield has been increasing. But aside from the weather to contend with we also have the pressures of disease, so as resistance breaks down to older varieties then you need new ones with better or different resistance to maintain the yield average at the least. Plus the impact of the grassweed issues will have limited yields.

The loss of actives on the crop protection side will make achieving yield increases even more difficult and that makes it more important to have different varieties to choose from.

 

[teslacoils]

You also need to bang the fert on to get the yield.

 

[PSQ]

In the 80's a lot of farms benefited from the fertility of having long term grass in the rotation, I could see one ex-grass field amalgamated into another for the following 30 years as a solid darker green area, but no more.

'Precision Farming' is certainly increasing yields back to those halcyon days, we're seeing some good repeatable tangible benefits from it.

 

[bitwrx]

No. Yields have plateaued.

Source: AHDB

Every new RL variety has to have a benefit above the rest. Grow it widely for a few years & those benefits e.g. disease susceptibility break down and the yield falls. The AHDB fungicide protocols would bankrupt any commercial farmer & they ignore the worst 1/3 of the results too. We're looking at a list of junkie varieties that benefit the input manufacturers.

So what to do about it?

Is it Joel Salatin that talks about being able to 'opt-out' en-masse? I found myself using that phrase when talking to the old man the other day (not about wheat, but a similar scenario). It feels a bit off-grid, sandal-wearing, lentil-weaving hippy. But if everyone does it, it's just mainstream.

How do wheat growers circumvent the complex that has grown up around our agricultural production?

 

[Jinx]

I think yields are being capped by soil health - organic matter, residual nutrient levels, etc - all of which have declined steadily over the past few decades. If only it were possible to try a modern variety in soil of 30 years ago, then we'd have a better picture.

 

[lloyd]

One thing that has changed around here is you don't see the
fields of flat wheat that we had 30 years ago.
Back then it would be steady on the nitrogen.