- Location
- Stoneleigh
A relatively mild winter continues to be kind to winter crops across Europe and the Black Sea. But, this also continues to leave crops more exposed to frost damage if temperatures drop. These are some of the key points of the latest EU crop monitoring (MARS) report, out yesterday.
Mild weather through December allowed some crops that were behind at the start of winter to catch up. Most winter crops are now described as in a ‘fair to good (or very good) condition’. This reads like an improvement from the December report, which said crops were off to a ‘fair start’.
Encouragingly, the report suggests that little frost damage has occurred so far. Yet, crops in the Black Sea region remain at risk from frost damage, if temperatures suddenly fall. Refinitiv suggests below normal temperatures this week in parts of Russia and Ukraine, before warming up again.
A good start for winter crops supports the potential for production to rebound in 2022/23. Strong European and Black Sea wheat, barley, and rapeseed crops could mean global supplies are more comfortable than this season. This is part of the reason we currently feel the market outlook is slightly bearish when looking six months ahead. It’s also part of why new crop (Nov-22) UK feed wheat futures are £22.45/t below old crop (May-22) prices.
But, frost damage could dent the potential for a strong production rebound in 2022/23. If frost damage happens, it could mean more support for new crop prices, especially relative to old crop prices.
Dry weather in North Africa
The MARS report also highlights that drought is persisting in Morocco, negatively impacting winter crops. In addition, rain is ‘imminently needed’ in Algeria to maintain crop growth. There’s still time for crops to recover ahead of harvest beginning in April, but it’s not an ideal start. Lower production in the region can mean higher import requirements. The UK often exports barley to the region, with shipments to Morocco so far this season (Jul-Nov) totaling 68Kt.
Today's Grain Market Daily on our website: Frost risk remains for Black Sea crops
For information on price direction make sure to subscribe to Grain Market Daily and Market Report from our team.
Mild weather through December allowed some crops that were behind at the start of winter to catch up. Most winter crops are now described as in a ‘fair to good (or very good) condition’. This reads like an improvement from the December report, which said crops were off to a ‘fair start’.
Encouragingly, the report suggests that little frost damage has occurred so far. Yet, crops in the Black Sea region remain at risk from frost damage, if temperatures suddenly fall. Refinitiv suggests below normal temperatures this week in parts of Russia and Ukraine, before warming up again.
A good start for winter crops supports the potential for production to rebound in 2022/23. Strong European and Black Sea wheat, barley, and rapeseed crops could mean global supplies are more comfortable than this season. This is part of the reason we currently feel the market outlook is slightly bearish when looking six months ahead. It’s also part of why new crop (Nov-22) UK feed wheat futures are £22.45/t below old crop (May-22) prices.
But, frost damage could dent the potential for a strong production rebound in 2022/23. If frost damage happens, it could mean more support for new crop prices, especially relative to old crop prices.
Dry weather in North Africa
The MARS report also highlights that drought is persisting in Morocco, negatively impacting winter crops. In addition, rain is ‘imminently needed’ in Algeria to maintain crop growth. There’s still time for crops to recover ahead of harvest beginning in April, but it’s not an ideal start. Lower production in the region can mean higher import requirements. The UK often exports barley to the region, with shipments to Morocco so far this season (Jul-Nov) totaling 68Kt.
Today's Grain Market Daily on our website: Frost risk remains for Black Sea crops
For information on price direction make sure to subscribe to Grain Market Daily and Market Report from our team.
