Sweden

[arcobob]

Random mutation throughout the natural world is not influenced or pre-planned or clever. Quite simply the mutants with an advantageous feature survive and those that have been overcome by disease, immunity, environmental change or starvation die out. This is a simple explanation of Darwinism. The species that multiply fastest naturally mutate fastest and this is particularly dramatic in single celled organisms such as bacteria and viruses.

 

[Muck Spreader]

Simply because Sweden is having its death surge now. Remember that they expect to reach herd immunity in Stockholm in about a week's time.

As you need over well over 70% to achieve herd immunity (if it exists). Sweden would have to have had way in excess of one million cases of Covid-19 in Stockholm alone. This looks extremely unlikely with confirmed cases for the whole country at only around 20,000. Or if you work herd immunity from the death rate. Stockholm alone would need to have had in excess of 4000 deaths but they are only on around 1300.

 

[Exfarmer]

As you need over well over 70% to achieve herd immunity (if it exists). Sweden would have to have had way in excess of one million cases of Covid-19 in Stockholm alone. This looks extremely unlikely with confirmed cases for the whole country at only around 20,000. Or if you work herd immunity from the death rate. Stockholm alone would need to have had in excess of 4000 deaths but they are only on around 1300.

That would be difficult
The population of Stockholm is 974,000
70% would be 680,000 cases

 

[Muck Spreader]

That would be difficult
The population of Stockholm is 974,000
70% would be 680,000 cases

I have it as 1,633,000

Stockholm, Sweden Metro Area Population 1950-2024

Chart and table of population level and growth rate for the Stockholm, Sweden metro area from 1950 to 2024. United Nations population projections are also included through the year 2035.

www.macrotrends.net

 

[Exfarmer]

I have it as 1,633,000

Stockholm, Sweden Metro Area Population 1950-2024

Chart and table of population level and growth rate for the Stockholm, Sweden metro area from 1950 to 2024. United Nations population projections are also included through the year 2035.

www.macrotrends.net

up to 2.4 million live in that part of Sweden but the population of the capital is reckoned to be just below 1 million

 

[The Agrarian]

That would be difficult
The population of Stockholm is 974,000
70% would be 680,000 cases

But what constitutes a case? Quite early on here in the UK they threw out the ball park factors of 20-50 times the number of infections vs confirmed if I recall. Scale that up and you get your million infections in Stockholm.

 

[Lowland1]

It depends on what you mean by "catastrophe". True there are a number of countries with higher death rates. Best to ignore those with very low populations - for example the highest in the world appears to be San Marino at 1208 per million. They have only had 41 deaths.

On the other hand, and I make no apology for continually referencing Portugal as being a similar country in both population, topography and spread of population, Sweden's death rate of 244 per million is well towards the top of any country and Portugal's is 95. Members should be aware that the unfortunate top of the league positions for countries of more than 10m population are Belgium, Spain, Italy, UK, France, Netherlands and Sweden in that order with 107 new deaths reported today in Sweden. 25 in Portugal.

I do not understand how any poster can claim Sweden is a good example of how to handle the virus. Its record of more deaths as a percentage of population, and the high death rate of those infected, together with the high number of daily new cases and high number of intensive care patients given its population show it to be failing in comparison with several other countries in mainland Europe.

Here is a link for anyone wanting to compare countries https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Again you are looking at this in the wrong manner. Without doubt people can hide away and will not get affected. The problem is there is no vaccine and unlikely to be one in the near future. So what are you going to do when you have to come out of hiding and the virus is still around . Well obviously you will be doing what the Swedes have done from the start and probably what the rest of the world will have to do. No doubt you are in a comfortable position with enough supplies to see you through unfortunately you are in a minority and people will have to start working and existing with this virus in the short term. Again 900 or 2500 out of a population of 10 million is a minuscule percentage and all thats happening really is Sweden is getting through this quicker than Portugal.

 

[Exfarmer]

But what constitutes a case? Quite early on here in the UK they threw out the ball park factors of 20-50 times the number of infections vs confirmed if I recall. Scale that up and you get your million infections in Stockholm.

I think these early quotes were to say the least optimistic, nobody has any real idea how many other population has had the virus, since up till now there is no effective test. They can say that you currently have it, but that is it.

 

[Muck Spreader]

I think these early quotes were to say the least optimistic, nobody has any real idea how many other population has had the virus, since up till now there is no effective test. They can say that you currently have it, but that is it.

In the whole of the west of France they are saying that only about 1% of the population have had Covid. In the east in Covid hotspots they still only reckon that about 12% of the population have had it. These were done using focus antibody testing sites, but they are still only a rough estimate due to the lumpy nature of Covid clusters. Also the Italian researchers where saying that even in their Covid epicentres it was still only around 30% who had been infected but there could be an additional 10% of asymptomatic carriers. So, a long way to go plus a lot of deaths to get to >70%.

 

[rob1]

In the whole of the west of France they are saying that only about 1% of the population have had Covid. In the east in Covid hotspots they still only reckon that about 12% of the population have had it. These were done using focus antibody testing sites, but they are still only a rough estimate due to the lumpy nature of Covid clusters. Also the Italian researchers where saying that even in their Covid epicentres it was still only around 30% who had been infected but there could be an additional 10% of asymptomatic carriers. So, a long way to go plus a lot of deaths to get to >70%.

When the lockdowns are lifted we will see, of course the worry at the moment seems to be some are catching it a second time

 

[Muck Spreader]

When the lockdowns are lifted we will see, of course the worry at the moment seems to be some are catching it a second time

Could be the case that the immunity is only good for 4 or 5 months or is only beneficial if you have had a severe dose fist time round, but I hope not.

 

[traadilooar]

Again you are looking at this in the wrong manner. Without doubt people can hide away and will not get affected. The problem is there is no vaccine and unlikely to be one in the near future. So what are you going to do when you have to come out of hiding and the virus is still around . Well obviously you will be doing what the Swedes have done from the start and probably what the rest of the world will have to do. No doubt you are in a comfortable position with enough supplies to see you through unfortunately you are in a minority and people will have to start working and existing with this virus in the short term. Again 900 or 2500 out of a population of 10 million is a minuscule percentage and all thats happening really is Sweden is getting through this quicker than Portugal.

On news at dinner time Oxford university are confident in there vaccine and are starting production, expecting approval and 30million doses for September.

Not saying I would be first in the que[emoji16][emoji16][emoji16]

 

[czechmate]

On news at dinner time Oxford university are confident in there vaccine and are starting production, expecting approval and 30million doses for September.

Not saying I would be first in the que[emoji16][emoji16][emoji16]

so I guess they didn’t kill their “Guinée pigs“ instantly then

 

[Lowland1]

On news at dinner time Oxford university are confident in there vaccine and are starting production, expecting approval and 30million doses for September.

Not saying I would be first in the que[emoji16][emoji16][emoji16]

So what do we do for the next five months stay inside or get on. I think a vaccination certificate would open the world up again.

 

[hoff135]

So what do we do for the next five months stay inside or get on. I think a vaccination certificate would open the world up again.

Are you saying that if you refuse a vaccine you wont be allowed to leave home?

 

[DrWazzock]

On news at dinner time Oxford university are confident in there vaccine and are starting production, expecting approval and 30million doses for September.

Not saying I would be first in the que[emoji16][emoji16][emoji16]

Good news at last. Well done them.

 

[Lowland1]

Are you saying that if you refuse a vaccine you wont be allowed to leave home?

Nope but if you go to countries like South Africa, or India you need a yellow fever vaccination certificate so if you want to travel abroad maybe a CoVid 19 vaccination certificate would work. I like to travel me.

 

[DrWazzock]

I had to have certificate to say I was free of HIV last time I went to South Korea. Some people take biosecurity seriously.

 

[Lowland1]

Anyone entering the U.K who requires a visa and is going to be staying for longer than six months needs a clean tuberculosis test. These things are not impossible to organise.

 

[Old McDonald]

Simply because Sweden is having its death surge now. Remember that they expect to reach herd immunity in Stockholm in about a week's time. How many deaths will Portugal need to get in order to get to the same position of immunity as Sweden? We don't know, but possibly similar, over a much longer period.

But it is a longer game than the current few weeks. Let us compare numbers in a year or so.

Fortunately for all of the other countries that have gone down the containment route Sweden has taken a different policy. Thus should allow epidemiologist in a few weeks / months to test for antibody presence to assess how many of the population has had it. For comparison with UK et al with different policy.

The harsh truth of cv19 is that successfully handling the virus is not just about preventing direct deaths but also mitigating its effects on the economy and society by protecting people's jobs, maintaining living standards, and managing widespread fear.

Again you are looking at this in the wrong manner. Without doubt people can hide away and will not get affected. The problem is there is no vaccine and unlikely to be one in the near future. So what are you going to do when you have to come out of hiding and the virus is still around . Well obviously you will be doing what the Swedes have done from the start and probably what the rest of the world will have to do. No doubt you are in a comfortable position with enough supplies to see you through unfortunately you are in a minority and people will have to start working and existing with this virus in the short term. Again 900 or 2500 out of a population of 10 million is a minuscule percentage and all thats happening really is Sweden is getting through this quicker than Portugal.

You are all completely missing what I have been posting in all the threads about Sweden. I have given the figures before, but please read what I post this time. Compared to Portugal, Sweden is not handling the virus well.

The populations are very similar at somewhat over 10 million. A few large centres of population and the capital cities having an extended area surrounding them with many more people than the actual city areas. Stockholm is bigger than Lisbon. The remainder of the country is mainly rural with areas that are sparsely inhabited. Sweden has larger areas of forest, but Portugal still has its areas of forest and mountainous areas. Cork oak areas are sometimes referred to as “forests” but these are trees at widely spaced intervals in grazing land on farms, not the type of area I refer to as forests.

Both countries have had “recommendations” and some restrictions, but not severe. Portugal has been more restricted than Sweden but some of these are being eased this weekend.

Obviously the final outcome is unknown, but if we start with infections that are known and recorded in order to have a base, Portugal has had (latest figures available to me) 25045 and Sweden 21092 so Portugal has actually had about 4000 more cases than Sweden. This is important because some posters appear to think Portugal has been locked down and nobody exposed. Portugal should have had a lot more deaths than Sweden if death rates had been equal. The light handed advice has permitted those who want to wander about to be able to do so and this has resulted in more infections than would have occurred with lockdown.

Total deaths 989 (16 more than yesterday) and 2586 (+124) are an enormous difference given the greater number of cases in Portugal. The death rate in Sweden is therefore a lot higher amongst those who have been infected.

Portugal has 1519 “recovered” against Sweden’s 1005. The active cases for a while have been approximately in line with the total number. Portugal has had about 400 more cases per million population, but the difference in deaths per million at 97 against 256 is startling. Given 4000 extra cases and so many less deaths shows that Portugal is so far handling the virus much better than Sweden.

If you want to add testing then around 400,000 against 120,000 is again in Portugal’s favour.