Sweden

[The Agrarian]

The testing is meaningless until a much larger proportion of the populations are covered. To compare it at the moment to death rate is nonsense. I know several people who have had significant infections here, and none of them tested.

 

[Chopsy Varmint]

You are all completely missing what I have been posting in all the threads about Sweden. I have given the figures before, but please read what I post this time. Compared to Portugal, Sweden is not handling the virus well.

The populations are very similar at somewhat over 10 million. A few large centres of population and the capital cities having an extended area surrounding them with many more people than the actual city areas. Stockholm is bigger than Lisbon. The remainder of the country is mainly rural with areas that are sparsely inhabited. Sweden has larger areas of forest, but Portugal still has its areas of forest and mountainous areas. Cork oak areas are sometimes referred to as “forests” but these are trees at widely spaced intervals in grazing land on farms, not the type of area I refer to as forests.

Both countries have had “recommendations” and some restrictions, but not severe. Portugal has been more restricted than Sweden but some of these are being eased this weekend.

Obviously the final outcome is unknown, but if we start with infections that are known and recorded in order to have a base, Portugal has had (latest figures available to me) 25045 and Sweden 21092 so Portugal has actually had about 4000 more cases than Sweden. This is important because some posters appear to think Portugal has been locked down and nobody exposed. Portugal should have had a lot more deaths than Sweden if death rates had been equal. The light handed advice has permitted those who want to wander about to be able to do so and this has resulted in more infections than would have occurred with lockdown.

Total deaths 989 (16 more than yesterday) and 2586 (+124) are an enormous difference given the greater number of cases in Portugal. The death rate in Sweden is therefore a lot higher amongst those who have been infected.

Portugal has 1519 “recovered” against Sweden’s 1005. The active cases for a while have been approximately in line with the total number. Portugal has had about 400 more cases per million population, but the difference in deaths per million at 97 against 256 is startling. Given 4000 extra cases and so many less deaths shows that Portugal is so far handling the virus much better than Sweden.

If you want to add testing then around 400,000 against 120,000 is again in Portugal’s favour.

I am reading what you write, promise.

The issue I have with comparing death statistics between countries is that we don't have enough data yet for meaningful assessment. How are Portugal and Sweden recording their cv19 deaths? Are both including care homes, people who die at home, people who die 'with' cv19 rather than 'from' cv19 and how are they judging that? Should people who die during the lockdown from suicide or not receiving medical treatment for heart attacks, strokes or cancer be included?

Likewise it's impossible at the moment to compare the ratio of active cases to deaths as not all active cases can be known when there is a fair proportion of people who are asymptomatic or who don't think they have it as they're not as sick as the media say they ought to be if they had cv19.

Statistics can be skewed to support an argument. My gut feeling is that in a year's time the numbers will show that Sweden has roughly the same figures as most other European countries, but without causing as much damage to the economy and the welfare of the population. After all, we don't know yet what will happen when locked down countries start easing restrictions. Again, my gut feeling is that cases will rise (including in Portugal) whereas Sweden will hold steady.

 

[Lowland1]

I just read in the telegraph that Public Health England now think children do not spread CoVid 19 unlike influenza so they're not superspreaders and there probably was no need to shut schools. The truth is no one really has the information to make decisions as all this is new and until sufficient information is gathered people are learning as they go. I still believe people should go about their business as best as they can so the Swedish model works for me.

 

[Exfarmer]

I just read in the telegraph that Public Health England now think children do not spread CoVid 19 unlike influenza so they're not superspreaders and there probably was no need to shut schools. The truth is no one really has the information to make decisions as all this is new and until sufficient information is gathered people are learning as they go. I still believe people should go about their business as best as they can so the Swedish model works for me.

4 days ago The Telegraph were warning that children could be spreading the disease, while not showing symptoms. I can find no evidence at all that they can be infected , but not spread the virus, and cannot find Public Health England suggesting that either.
The Swiss authorities have suggested it, but they have nothing to back it up

 

[hoff135]

I just read in the telegraph that Public Health England now think children do not spread CoVid 19 unlike influenza so they're not superspreaders and there probably was no need to shut schools. The truth is no one really has the information to make decisions as all this is new and until sufficient information is gathered people are learning as they go. I still believe people should go about their business as best as they can so the Swedish model works for me.

We have a bunch of experts and computers making the decisions. Not exactly most reliable combination going on past performances.

When pressed on numerous questions about the virus, is it airbourne, how many people are a symptomatic, should we wear masks, how long are we immune etc the answer is the same-

"We dont know, Its a new virus and we dont know much about it yet"

Experts are playing about with computer programs and calling the shots, and the shots have repercussions.

Not saying the virus isnt bad because it is bit they will happily have us in lockdown for 10 years if their computer tells them so.

If it wasnt cjd or yellowstone park going to explode its something else. They have had us all dead a hundred times already.

Need to take their theories with a fair pinch of salt given their track record.

 

[czechmate]

We have a bunch of experts and computers making the decisions. Not exactly most reliable combination going on past performances.

When pressed on numerous questions about the virus, is it airbourne, how many people are a symptomatic, should we wear masks, how long are we immune etc the answer is the same-

"We dont know, Its a new virus and we dont know much about it yet"

Experts are playing about with computer programs and calling the shots, and the shots have repercussions.

Not saying the virus isnt bad because it is bit they will happily have us in lockdown for 10 years if their computer tells them so.

If it wasnt cjd or yellowstone park going to explode its something else. They have had us all dead a hundred times already.

Need to take their theories with a fair pinch of salt given their track record.

That’s the problem, so what do you expect anyone to do any better?

 

[Derrick Hughes]

Belgium is worst in the world

 

[honeyend]

We have a bunch of experts and computers making the decisions. Not exactly most reliable combination going on past performances.

When pressed on numerous questions about the virus, is it airbourne, how many people are a symptomatic, should we wear masks, how long are we immune etc the answer is the same-

"We dont know, Its a new virus and we dont know much about it yet"

Experts are playing about with computer programs and calling the shots, and the shots have repercussions.

Not saying the virus isnt bad because it is bit they will happily have us in lockdown for 10 years if their computer tells them so.

If it wasnt cjd or yellowstone park going to explode its something else. They have had us all dead a hundred times already.

Need to take their theories with a fair pinch of salt given their track record.

Studies in Iceland where they have traced just about everyone who has had the virus, has found that they have no evidence of children giving it to adults. As its a real situation I actually have more faith in it than a lab test.

Coronavirus: Hunting down COVID-19 - Science Museum Group

Roger Highfield, Science Director, talks to Kari Stefansson, whose genetic sequencing project has revealed how the UK infected Iceland, that children don’t seem to infect parents, and how to control COVID-19.

www.sciencemuseumgroup.org.uk

 

[Muck Spreader]

Belgium is worst in the world

We don't know. Belgium is over-recording deaths compared to most other countries. They record any death linked to Covid-19 even if it's not been tested, as an attributed death. SIL in UK had a friend who went into hospital for Cancer tests, caught Covid in the hospital and died. But death certificate states Cancer as cause of death.

 

[Lowland1]

Studies in Iceland where they have traced just about everyone who has had the virus, has found that they have no evidence of children giving it to adults. As its a real situation I actually have more faith in it than a lab test.

Coronavirus: Hunting down COVID-19 - Science Museum Group

Roger Highfield, Science Director, talks to Kari Stefansson, whose genetic sequencing project has revealed how the UK infected Iceland, that children don’t seem to infect parents, and how to control COVID-19.

www.sciencemuseumgroup.org.uk

Yes and they did n't do lock down and schools and shops remained open. And yes I know you can't compare one country to another.

 

[Exfarmer]

Studies in Iceland where they have traced just about everyone who has had the virus, has found that they have no evidence of children giving it to adults. As its a real situation I actually have more faith in it than a lab test.

Coronavirus: Hunting down COVID-19 - Science Museum Group

Roger Highfield, Science Director, talks to Kari Stefansson, whose genetic sequencing project has revealed how the UK infected Iceland, that children don’t seem to infect parents, and how to control COVID-19.

www.sciencemuseumgroup.org.uk

Iceland again is a very poor country to compare with the UK and the numbers of infections is difficult to make any generalisations.
They did also shut schools very early in the outbreak meaning, infected other- child - child - parent less likely
interestingly Iceland is quite strict in what it terms a Covid death and the first death there is not listed as the patient had an unidentified underlaying illness.
The other interesting point about Iceland, is they have tested nearly everybody for the presence of anti bodies revealing the highest rate of known infection in the world. However this figure is actually only 0.5%

 

[Exfarmer]

Yes and they did n't do lock down and schools and shops remained open. And yes I know you can't compare one country to another.

Oh yes they did do lockdown, banning gatherings and shutting schools earlier. They also made shops bring in distancing etc.

 

[honeyend]

I am not camparing, I am reading results from scientific studies of the virus. There will be other studies, and some may have different evidence.
We are treating patients with the virus which things that seem to improve patients chances of survival, there is not scientific evidence with a controlled study, but if you prone a patient and their O2 sats go up, you tend to keep doing it.
In a years time there will be the results of random control trials on treatments, there will be results from testing on how its spread in the air and how it can be controlled in the air, but for now we have to live with what we have got, which is based which on the knowledge we have today. From previous infections children were assumed to be super spreaders, it may be the more social 18-30 year olds who travel more and socialise in larger groups are the ones we need to watch.
The fact they have tried to test as many people as possible, even if they have never had any symptoms, means they have a more complete picture of the infection rate. Its something we have not even started on a large scale, so who knows what our infection rate is.

Iceland again is a very poor country to compare with the UK and the numbers of infections is difficult to make any generalisations.
They did also shut schools very early in the outbreak meaning, infected other- child - child - parent less likely
interestingly Iceland is quite strict in what it terms a Covid death and the first death there is not listed as the patient had an unidentified underlaying illness.
The other interesting point about Iceland, is they have tested nearly everybody for the presence of anti bodies revealing the highest rate of known infection in the world. However this figure is actually only 0.5%

 

[Exfarmer]

@honeyend sorry if you think I am being critical, I am far from sure that this governments actions are correct and I do not suppose we will know for a good year at least.
Interesting Iceland thinks a lot of its infection come from the UK this is certainly not impossible but may reflect that that infection is just a common source and the origin of that sub type has not been found yet.
I would wholeheartedly agree with you ,that it seems the 18-30 age group are the superspreaders. I wonder how much of that is made up by Tinder!

 

[Lowland1]

Oh yes they did do lockdown, banning gatherings and shutting schools earlier. They also made shops bring in distancing etc.

Not according to the gentleman in this article. He says they kept schools and daycare and shops open but stopped gatherings of over 20 people and closed the theatres and concert halls. Have a read of the article. However he does say they were able to quarantine infected people. Sorry i just read that they closed secondary schools and universities for a month.

 

[Muck Spreader]

Studies in Iceland where they have traced just about everyone who has had the virus, has found that they have no evidence of children giving it to adults. As its a real situation I actually have more faith in it than a lab test.

Coronavirus: Hunting down COVID-19 - Science Museum Group

Roger Highfield, Science Director, talks to Kari Stefansson, whose genetic sequencing project has revealed how the UK infected Iceland, that children don’t seem to infect parents, and how to control COVID-19.

www.sciencemuseumgroup.org.uk

The the French found the same when they looked at transmission in a school. Actually turned out that the parents and staff where infecting one another rather than the children. Although, some children were found to be asymptomatic carriers they generally didn't pass it on to the parents.

 

[Old McDonald]

I am reading what you write, promise.

The issue I have with comparing death statistics between countries is that we don't have enough data yet for meaningful assessment. How are Portugal and Sweden recording their cv19 deaths? Are both including care homes, people who die at home, people who die 'with' cv19 rather than 'from' cv19 and how are they judging that? Should people who die during the lockdown from suicide or not receiving medical treatment for heart attacks, strokes or cancer be included?

Likewise it's impossible at the moment to compare the ratio of active cases to deaths as not all active cases can be known when there is a fair proportion of people who are asymptomatic or who don't think they have it as they're not as sick as the media say they ought to be if they had cv19.

Statistics can be skewed to support an argument. My gut feeling is that in a year's time the numbers will show that Sweden has roughly the same figures as most other European countries, but without causing as much damage to the economy and the welfare of the population. After all, we don't know yet what will happen when locked down countries start easing restrictions. Again, my gut feeling is that cases will rise (including in Portugal) whereas Sweden will hold steady.

You are still missing what I have been posting. This is at least the fourth thread which purports to show that Sweden is a paragon in its handling of the virus. I say it is not and some posters want to argue with me. Fair enough, debate is good, but in support of that argument there is a need to show that Sweden is doing better with its infected people than at least a large majority of other countries. To fail to show this results in my contention that it is doing no better than many others, and decidedly worse than some.

I used Portugal as a comparison and example of only one country amongst many which is keeping virus cases alive much better than Sweden. We all know that the deaths numbers numbers are a guide, and not claimed to be 100% accurate. There will be some who died from the virus who were not recorded as having done so and vice versa.

What can be done is to follow the outcome of confirmed cases, and here it is necessary to consider the outcome in relation to other countries, because that determines whether Sweden is as good as some have claimed. A confirmed case will be one that has tested positive – the exception being Belgium which is recording deaths in care homes that are only suspect cases and they then become confirmed cases without testing. Belgium says it is the only country in the world doing this. Apart from this anomaly the average outcome shows your chances of survival in any country if you become infected and recorded as such, which shows how well the country is handling the virus. I have said I would prefer to take my chances in Portugal rather than Sweden. At least one poster said they preferred Sweden.

The only good outcome is survival, and it is accepted some will have lifelong problems, but the alternative is death. The definition of recovered may well vary too, but it does indicate that the patient is still alive. There are lots of countries where the survival rate is considerably higher than Sweden. This shows that up until now these countries are performing better than Sweden. Unfortunately the UK and some other European countries also fare badly in this respect.

I have absolutely nothing against Sweden and my volunteer grocery delivery man is Swedish. We are going as long as possible between home deliveries of foodstuffs (twice so far after more than 7 weeks of self-imposed isolation) and we would survive without him, but the deliveries do make meals more appetising and interesting, and we are extremely grateful to our volunteer. He has told us there have never been any shortages in the shops such as we have been told happened in other countries, so numerous businesses have been operating and many people have been working to keep the shelves stocked. This could be the reason Portugal has seen more cases than Sweden. An alternative brand to our usual was sometimes provided in the first delivery but we have not failed to obtain what we needed.

You cannot know what effect there will be on any country’s economy in a year’s time. Or what will happen with the number of cases in the future. My posts have always been that Sweden is not so far showing that it has handled the virus as well as many other countries, yet I repeat this is at least the fourth thread claiming it is.

 

[Muck Spreader]

. A confirmed case will be one that has tested positive – the exception being Belgium which is recording deaths in care homes that are only suspect cases and they then become confirmed cases without testing. Belgium says it is the only country in the world doing this.

France counts every suspect case death as Covid in a care home without testing, if the home has had 2 positive patients previously.

 

[Old McDonald]

France counts every suspect case death as Covid in a care home without testing, if the home has had 2 positive patients previously.

Here was me accepting a BBC report as being correct.

 

[Muck Spreader]

Here was me accepting a BBC report as being correct.

It's probably impossible for them to know what every country is doing and keeping up with the changing criteria all the time.