Taiwan

[beardface]

Incorrect. America has not sworn to defend Taiwan. America’s real position is one of “strategic ambiguity”! If China decides to take Taiwan, America will keep its head down.

America has had an interest in Taiwan for longer than most people realise. If China invades Taiwan then its the beginning of WW3.

My wife's stepmother is Taiwanese and I've had the pleasure of visiting 3 times now. They will fight to the death to defend there independence.

Much of the reasoning behind China's interest in Taiwan is related to semi conducted production rather than some Chinese utopian vision.

Given the current direction of travel I'd say Taiwan will most likely be the reason for the next major global conflict. I just hope it happens after April as we're planning to visit again then.

 

[beardface]

The truth is China could swamp Taiwan before the Americans could muster a response. The Amercan Taiwan act does not guarantee defense, just the supply of military hardware to repulse an attack. I suspect there is already a very large stock anti missile and aircraft missiles based in Taiwan, but the Chinese mainland is far too close for Taiwan to withstand a very determined attack.
However China is a long game player and unlikely to do anything perfunctorily unless it has an internal crisis which requires a diversion for the civil population. The standard response of dictators since time began.
Is it possible Evergrande is this crisis?

Taiwan is an incredibly difficult country to invade by sea given its rugged coastline. Let's be clear this will be nothing like D Day. It would have to encompasse a large scale aerial infiltration to be a success. And yes Taiwan does have a lot of weapons ready and waiting for the day it happens. Given the modern Chinese army has never been involved in a major conflict before it would be a very hard test for them.

There currnt internal crisis is the potential collapse of its housing market like America in 08, plus a stagnating economy due to covids effects on the global marketplace.

 

[steveR]

Nah- you gotta find them first. Same way the US has been hiding carriers for years. The Pacific is a big place.

Sat coverage makes hiding harder these days...

 

[ollie989898]

Sat coverage makes hiding harder these days...

They have had ocean reconnaissance satellites for decades now, the speed of a carrier group means they can be hundreds of miles away by the time of the next satellite pass. Not only that but the USA have plenty of air assets and airborne radar to defend their ships. They have done it for years and will be well rehearsed.

 

[Easedoff]

If the chinks are keen to have a go, they have a couple of years before a proper strong and lucid US President is in control again.
Heard on radio today that October and April are the best times of year with the seas.
Something could happen next April I reckon.

 

[Roger Perry]

What equipment got left behind, please show us.

Your bbc perhaps edited it out,
Rows of helicopters/humvees,huge storage buildings full of automatic weapons even helmets total value between $80-$100 billion. Latest technology available to the highest bidder.........I guess in this case it would now be in china's hands now.

 

[Easedoff]

Your bbc perhaps edited it out,
Rows of helicopters/humvees,huge storage buildings full of automatic weapons even helmets total value between $80-$100 billion. Latest technology available to the highest bidder.........I guess in this case it would now be in china's hands now.

Yes.
Biden got a big bung in his Swiss bank account for that lot.
It was seen on telly here.
As you say. Probably not on Auntie Woke.

 

[Roger Perry]

Yes.
Biden got a big bung in his Swiss bank account for that lot.
It was seen on telly here.
As you say. Probably not on Auntie Woke.

What a pratt that man is..!

 

[Muck Spreader]

What a pratt that man is..!

Yes, Trump was pretty stupid to do a deal with the Taliban.

 

[Exfarmer]

Nah- you gotta find them first. Same way the US has been hiding carriers for years. The Pacific is a big place.

Dream on, have you not looked at google earth? These satellites are going round constantly and we no longer need dozens of people poring over aerial photos just as facebook identifies you and friends so will chinese military be tracking All the ships in thr pacific, and probably the rest of world too

 

[Fish]

Looked at in this light, things make (some) sense. What would be the point of a tin pot European army if China suddenly takes control of the south east pacific?

I sorry but have I miss something!
Are the Chinese about to invade Easter island or take over Pitcairn ?

 

[ollie989898]

Your bbc perhaps edited it out,
Rows of helicopters/humvees,huge storage buildings full of automatic weapons even helmets total value between $80-$100 billion. Latest technology available to the highest bidder.........I guess in this case it would now be in china's hands now.

What the cronk are a few humvees and automatic weapons going to do? Seriously. I thought the ANA were in the thousands and needed equipping?

So the Taliban have a load more toys to fight with. This kind of equipment is of no importance. Dozens of hand held stingers or something I would be more worried about.

 

[ollie989898]

Dream on, have you not looked at google earth? These satellites are going round constantly and we no longer need dozens of people poring over aerial photos just as facebook identifies you and friends so will chinese military be tracking All the ships in thr pacific, and probably the rest of world too

Google Earth is taken over multiple time frames and multiple satellite passes. Ships move and are often obscured by cloud. It isn't that simple. The range of the radar and sensors on missiles or aircraft is not that great so you really do need a precise idea of the location of a target before launching it from thousands of miles away.

 

[Exfarmer]

Google Earth is taken over multiple time frames and multiple satellite passes. Ships move and are often obscured by cloud. It isn't that simple. The range of the radar and sensors on missiles or aircraft is not that great so you really do need a precise idea of the location of a target before launching it from thousands of miles away.

You do realise you can get google earth in near real time if you pay enough!
I think it is about £350 a year. So I suspect the Chinese military have the ability to have superior pictures.
However I think they would be very reluctant to target something which would probably attract a very significant response.
Not so sure they would worry about targeting HMS Queen Elizabeth.

 

[robs1]

You do realise you can get google earth in near real time if you pay enough!
I think it is about £350 a year. So I suspect the Chinese military have the ability to have superior pictures.
However I think they would be very reluctant to target something which would probably attract a very significant response.
Not so sure they would worry about targeting HMS Queen Elizabeth.

Not sure why china would pick a fight with anyone atm, they have got where they are by waging economical warfare on the west, that has made them very well off and virtually indispensable, why would they risk that over a small bit of disputed territory, if the west starts making more of the stuff we depend on or at least buy it elsewhere then perhaps they may start a fight, at the moment they are just testing the waters, just like Putin does sending over decrepit bombers to test our response

 

[Exfarmer]

Not sure why china would pick a fight with anyone atm, they have got where they are by waging economical warfare on the west, that has made them very well off and virtually indispensable, why would they risk that over a small bit of disputed territory, if the west starts making more of the stuff we depend on or at least buy it elsewhere then perhaps they may start a fight, at the moment they are just testing the waters, just like Putin does sending over decrepit bombers to test our response

I would agree, they have little to gain, the only risk is the same issue all dictators ( and XI ) is a dictator however he would like to polish it. Dictators need someone else to blame and they need diversions, If this Evergrande affair, does blow up into a huge issue then he may need a diversionary tactic to save his neck and land grabbing is a very traditional track to make.

 

[Roger Perry]

What the cronk are a few humvees and automatic weapons going to do? Seriously. I thought the ANA were in the thousands and needed equipping?

So the Taliban have a load more toys to fight with. This kind of equipment is of no importance. Dozens of hand held stingers or something I would be more worried about.

You have obviously not grasped the range of equipment abandoned, in bidens rush for the exit he left behind the very best of American technology, mans a halfwit.

 

[steveR]

You have obviously not grasped the range of equipment abandoned, in bidens rush for the exit he left behind the very best of American technology, mans a halfwit.

The one saving grace is that anything more complex than a rifle will soon start to suffer from lack of maintenance

 

[Montexy]

China will one day soon invade/take back Taiwan, they have never given up on their claim to it and still consider it part of the nation. The USA facilitated the retreat of chaing kai and his army to Taiwan by blockading the sea between the mainland and China. I think the first steps to invasion will be making sure the US and allies cannot maneuvere around the South China Sea which is why we should all be more concerned about the military build up on the newly constructed islands, these will be used to keep all nations at arms length while China invades. I think costs will be high in human lives but the chinese will not be bothered about that. Will they be concerned about economic sanctions? I doubt it, the west to concerned about getting cheap manufactured goods to introduce sanctions and governments like it as in the short term it has reduced inflation, and besides after 20 years of exporting our manufacturing to China we do not have the infrastructure or expertise to switch it back on at full throttle.
We have stupidly allowed China to grow to big and powerful and over the next decade or so will see the folly of our actions

 

[FonterraFarmer]

You have obviously not grasped the range of equipment abandoned, in bidens rush for the exit he left behind the very best of American technology, mans a halfwit.

Technology is great if you know how to utilise and use it correctly, China thinks showing its a political power and potential force to invade Taiwan carrys an element of risk of retaliation, the challenge is how to reciprocate the gesture in a manor they would never consider....