2023 potato crop sale price prospects

[Sonoftheheir]

Thinking about the rest of the spud season prospects and the implications to sale price (in the growers favour) -

Pro’s
1. 2023 GB crop was planted late leading to very variable yields and in general less crop.
2. Less potatoes were planted due to poor returns and the ever increasing cost/risk to growing them.
3.There was no carry over of 2022 stock therefore never a glut in the market.
4. Very strong end to 2022 crop price due to shortage.
5. The crop had very variable growing conditions leading to some small samples and others over size with greens, hollow heart and growth cracks.
6.Small percentage of the crop was left to over winter, weather conditions since have not lent to favourable field conditions, we can conclude that nearly all of these potatoes will be unsaleable.
7.Due to wet harvesting conditions, many late lifted crops have had to be moved early due to breaking down in store. Also crops with high dirt adhesion will not store as well long term.
8. Some growers moved crop earlier due to high storage costs.
9. All of the above applicable to the North European potato crop.
10. Seed for 2024 in very short supply and oversize to normal. Will lead to less acres planted and less speculative plantings.
11. Possible late 2024 crop planting due to field conditions.



Con’s
1. Lack of demand due to cost of living crisis and in general less potatoes consumed per person
2. Higher cost to end user, therefore they cut down on quantity.
3. Growers holding stocks back due to perceived higher sale price later in the season.
4. High end user price will hurt future sales as they turn away to alternatives.
5. In the chip shop job, shops closing due to lack of profits and ever increasing costs in general.

Where do we see prices peaking and when?

Please add any thought you have?

Cheers
Gary Harrison

 

[Secret Agronomist]

I suppose for the majority of growers ( whose crop is largely grown at a fixed price) what it will mean for contracts going forward? Growing costs are down (a bit) so the packers will no doubt use that as a reason for a standstill. But if growers say they are growing less will they up their offers? I've not spoken to anyone to hear what the offers are yet.

 

[Sonoftheheir]

I don’t know where contract prices are either, but whenever I’ve enquired about them they’ve always been around about the cost of production. So never been tempted on our small acreage.

 

[goodevans]

You would think the cost of living crisis would increase consumption of potatoes if there was any common sense ,although common sense is not that common as surely one of the cheapest staples, on a different note just having had a couple of days in London there doesn't appear to be any crisis

 

[Flatland guy]

The only thing to note is that last year earlies in other countries suffered in cold winter which meant the low supply last year could not be fulfilled by imports. I am led to believe this winter has been wet thorughout western Europe will that limit the new season trade coming in here again or are they planting as normal? .I was once told the buyers cannot deal with a late season sudden price rise no time to coordinate supplies from elsewhere it does take time but a shortage/ perceived shortage during the growing/ harvesting season often gives them time to eke out/ book/ order supplies from another country at some stage.
Only time will tell.

 

[Iben]

The tight seed market might be the saving grace to prevent people planting extra thinking they have the job sussed. Depends how many can home save extra?

Best plan is not to overthink it and keep doing what you normally do.

High prices solve high prices, low prices solve low prices, etc etc.

Will add. High prices making a decent profit is nice, pushing prices to high usually has a long term affect on customer demand for a few years, meaning many will lose more than they gain.

 

[Secret Agronomist]

You would think the cost of living crisis would increase consumption of potatoes if there was any common sense ,although common sense is not that common as surely one of the cheapest staples, on a different note just having had a couple of days in London there doesn't appear to be any crisis

I have to agree with you there, but maybe it depends who you mix with. We don't go out much , maybe for lunch or brunch to a farm shop, they are always busy , but a lot of the money during the week could be widows spending the husbands big pension! At the weekend there's all sorts, couples with young children ( so probably only 1 income), retired and rich types etc. 3 of us had lunch, 3 coffees, 3 teas, 3 mains, 2 cakes and it was about £65. Meanwhile the centre of Perth is a shitehole!
I think many folk have latched onto "cost of living " just the same as they use "mental health" !

 

[Secret Agronomist]

I don’t know where contract prices are either, but whenever I’ve enquired about them they’ve always been around about the cost of production. So never been tempted on our small acreage.

Are you selling into the bagged chip trade? Pre pack contracts are ok, but rely on you doing a good job and getting good yields and quality. If we could grow PROPER processing quality up here it would knock a chunk off the growing costs as black dot would be a non issue, so saving on amstar etc. Scab would be less of an issue so reduced irrigation costs, reduced power for refrigeration ( possibly although it would be countered by sprout suppression). I wouldn't like to say what that would amount to in total though. In addition we could start looking at dual resistance varieties as we are definitely getting problems from PCN.

 

[legin]

Only grow about 80ac. We've cut back on bags for chip shops and gone more processing. We can't store, so everything is green top. Trouble with all bags , when you get a bad year its hard on finances & cashflow. At least with contracts it levels thing out a little. Rolling 5yr average with bags is probably not much more than contracts, plus processor takes everything over 40mm and some stuff you wouldn't put in bags. Horses for courses.

 

[Sonoftheheir]

Are you selling into the bagged chip trade? Pre pack contracts are ok, but rely on you doing a good job and getting good yields and quality. If we could grow PROPER processing quality up here it would knock a chunk off the growing costs as black dot would be a non issue, so saving on amstar etc. Scab would be less of an issue so reduced irrigation costs, reduced power for refrigeration ( possibly although it would be countered by sprout suppression). I wouldn't like to say what that would amount to in total though. In addition we could start looking at dual resistance varieties as we are definitely getting problems from PCN.

Yes all bagged chip shop job.