Glad I sold my wheat

[lloyd]

Plenty of time for it to start raining
and not knowing when to stop?

This would apply to lots of countries we import from.
Weather will drive the market and unless you can accurately
predict that then too early to call.

Seems to be plenty of demand for grain drier hoppers
so someones hedging their bets .

 

[Spashett]

ODA advising for a long time to hold, not sure what they say now. You pay for the privilege of being told not to sell when it's £190 And today it's in £150s!

 

[Grain Buyer]

ODA advising for a long time to hold, not sure what they say now. You pay for the privilege of being told not to sell when it's £190 And today it's in £150s!

I was told the other day ODA had officially gone pop? is that true?

 

[Clive]

No one can get it right all the time but a good trader told me once that if you can consistently be right just 51% of the time you can make a living at it !

Bottled out of mine a while ago despite feeling it would go up I was just a bit too exposed and cash flow was getting stretched

Long way off the top for wheat this time I’m afraid but can console myself that osr, oats and beans were all sold very well

 

[T C]

This could be a story to develop.
https://www.ufz.de/index.php?en=37937
Looking at the european weather there seems to be a good amount in the SE but the NW is not getting much.

 

[Spashett]

I was told the other day ODA had officially gone pop? is that true?

Not heard that, but did hear another Merchant in Yorkshire gone bust ... can not remember name but linked to brewing!

 

[RushesToo]

Watching a few videos on YouTube, few US farms halving their soy crop because it’s not worth any thing. Maybe that’s just an internal thing or maybe finding it hard to sell abroad. More wheat and corn going in by looks of it.

It's because a third of china's pigs have been slaughtered and the market is beginning to respond.

 

[T Hectares]

Not heard that, but did hear another Merchant in Yorkshire gone bust ... can not remember name but linked to brewing!

The French arm of ODA has gone, the UK arm is a stand alone company that's solvent and doubled it's client base in 3 years.
They are not merchants though, they are market risk analysts.

 

[T Hectares]

ODA advising for a long time to hold, not sure what they say now. You pay for the privilege of being told not to sell when it's £190 And today it's in £150s!

They advised selling a good chunk back in July and another before things started dropping away, their average will beat a lot of pools i would imagine, certainly will beat the pool results I've seen, £150 is still better than the £130-40 a lot of pools started selling at this year...

 

[Spashett]

The French arm of ODA has gone, the UK arm is a stand alone company that's solvent and doubled it's client base in 3 years.
They are not merchants though, they are market risk analysts.

I did not mean ODA was a merchant. Separate Merchant in Yorkshire went down last week Isaac Poad??

 

[DrWazzock]

A few years back I sold forward in June for harvest then there were those fires in Russia and up it went.

We have had a bit of rain but it could dry up again just as quickly. I might not be getting top prices but at least I can sleep at night knowing I don't "have to" get the harvest. I can hold it right round to next harvest anyway.

 

[Flat 10]

A few years back I sold forward in June for harvest then there were those fires in Russia and up it went.

We have had a bit of rain but it could dry up again just as quickly. I might not be getting top prices but at least I can sleep at night knowing I don't "have to" get the harvest. I can hold it right round to next harvest anyway.

And I can sleep easy knowing I don't have to sell some of my wheat in a period of a week in august when I need it moved to refill the shed...... Nothing i hate more than being forced into taking a price. Much rather be able to chose when to do it in the previous 12 months.... Not all of us can store over 12 months of output.....

 

[Brisel]

View attachment 797280

Oils on the rise again. Sure as night follows day wheat will follow. It’s got sweet FA to do with world stocks

View attachment 797280

Oils on the rise again. Sure as night follows day wheat will follow. It’s got sweet FA to do with world stocks

Yes, if speculators are getting burned on securities, they pile into commodities but that's just a temporary push. Watch how fast they liquidate positions on the back of USDA reports or when the market moves against them. Supply & demand always wins in the end.

There is a website for one of the exchanges where you can plot the price vs time for whatever commodities you want to compare. Sorry - I can't remember which one that was. I was hoping to post a graph doing just that for wheat vs crude.

 

[oil barron]

Here you go brother. This plots %rate of change per month so its a bit jumpy. I would prefer just to se absolute value compared.

Yes, if speculators are getting burned on securities, they pile into commodities but that's just a temporary push. Watch how fast they liquidate positions on the back of USDA reports or when the market moves against them. Supply & demand always wins in the end.

There is a website for one of the exchanges where you can plot the price vs time for whatever commodities you want to compare. Sorry - I can't remember which one that was. I was hoping to post a graph doing just that for wheat vs crude.

 

[shakerator]

Not selling a grain

Crops look excellent due to sheer amount of N and air in soil

However it only takes one hot week and huge swaths of uk cereals could wilt IMO

Drains running mean little when you stick a digger in the ground and find dust at 3ft below a moist surface along with a highway of cracks for that water to hit the backfill

 

[lloyd]

We need USA and China to sort their trade war out.
USA with 171million acres down to wheat,soya and corn
are big market movers.
IF a deal was done and China reduced the tariffs put on the states
and bought more then expect a price rise.

 

[Brisel]

There's a degree of displacement going on - China will just buy their feed elsewhere and US grain will fill that gap. It will be interesting to see what happens with the Chinese pig herd reduction - what will they fill the void left by less pigmeat with? Poultry or red meat? Imports of meat instead of feed grains?

 

[lloyd]

There's a degree of displacement going on - China will just buy their feed elsewhere and US grain will fill that gap. It will be interesting to see what happens with the Chinese pig herd reduction - what will they fill the void left by less pigmeat with? Poultry or red meat? Imports of meat instead of feed grains?

Sheep meat
Lots of it

 

[average farmer]

There's a degree of displacement going on - China will just buy their feed elsewhere and US grain will fill that gap. It will be interesting to see what happens with the Chinese pig herd reduction - what will they fill the void left by less pigmeat with? Poultry or red meat? Imports of meat instead of feed grains?

Dogs?

 

[teslacoils]

There's a degree of displacement going on - China will just buy their feed elsewhere and US grain will fill that gap. It will be interesting to see what happens with the Chinese pig herd reduction - what will they fill the void left by less pigmeat with? Poultry or red meat? Imports of meat instead of feed grains?

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