Reality of a No Deal Brexit

[More to life]

It is a could but what is the positive alternative scenario then?

We are looking at either no Brexit and things essentially stay as they are.
or
We leave without a deal and with the tariffs as already published and we suffer the consequences as explained in the video
or
What? what is the mythical Brexit will be better for UK agriculture alternative? I keep asking and I keep hearing nothing? Is it the Brexit that turns out to be a disaster for the UK economy and farm sales are boosted from the crash in the value of the pound?

Nobody has said it but recession, inflation with a week pound should save the day.

 

[Beef farmer]

Ffs baldy, look what you started.

 

[steveR]

40% in to EU and are in the process of putting up a new mozzarella plant in RoI to get around Brexit to be operational by 2021

Yep, and old friend is very involved with the design and installation of this plant. It's going to big, modern and very efficient...

 

[Clive]

Actually some of us may say that the job is very good at the present time. Just a thought for you.

I would agree - there is money in the job if your doing it right

I bet most farmers would not agree with us though

and take their BPS check away ......

 

[gone up the hill]

I would agree - there is money in the job if your doing it right

I bet most farmers would not agree with us though

and take their BPS check away ......

So you really think that beef farming can be profitable at the current prices which are lower than 30 years ago £1 for £1 without even thinking about how much farm gate input prices have gone up in the same period.

You really need to look outside your arable farming bubble and see/ understand what is going on in other sectors of the industry!

Oh and it should be pointed out ( for balance of argument ) that your dad was up at the crack of dawn on the first banking day in Dec last year to see if you had been paid your BPS or not.....................................

 

[steveR]

Theres only one way to fix it now rock paper scissors

Not if Cummins is doing the count, he is sure to cheat!

 

[Beef farmer]

So you really think that beef farming can be profitable at the current prices which are lower than 30 years ago £1 for £1 without even thinking about how much farm gate input prices have gone up in the same period.

You really need to look outside your arable farming bubble and see/ understand what is going on in other sectors of the industry!

Oh and it should be pointed out ( for balance of argument ) that your dad was up at the crack of dawn on the first banking day in Dec last year to see if you had been paid your BPS or not.....................................

How do you know what his dad is upto in the mornings?

 

[gone up the hill]

How do you know what his dad is upto in the mornings?

Ha ha

His dad was one of the first to post on TFF that morning that thankfully they had received it!

 

[Beef farmer]

Ha ha

His dad was one of the first to post on TFF that morning that thankfully they had received it!

Oh. @clivesdad

 

[Bankville]

Do you not understand the word "could"?

I do have a basic grasp of the English language, thank you for your concern

Giving the original post and context of the video is based on current facts it seems like an accurate prediction.

What COULD change are the facts. UK import tariffs could be updated/changed next week, EU may not treat uk as a 3rd country immediately in event of no deal therefore changing its import tariffs.

 

[Clive]

So you really think that beef farming can be profitable at the current prices which are lower than 30 years ago £1 for £1 without even thinking about how much farm gate input prices have gone up in the same period.

You really need to look outside your arable farming bubble and see/ understand what is going on in other sectors of the industry!

Oh and it should be pointed out ( for balance of argument ) that your dad was up at the crack of dawn on the first banking day in Dec last year to see if you had been paid your BPS or not.....................................

I don’t know and don’t claim to either

but neither does anyone else despite claiming to

 

[puffy]

Thats historic, not a Govt statement about future tariffs. The truth is nobody knows yet. I expect that if we exit at the end of the month, nothing much will change while negotiations take place. Certainly the "project fear" predictions of shortages in the UK doesnt stand any scrutiny as UK customs/Govt will not put restrictions on imports of vital goods such as medicines. Pretty much the same as RoI panic about import checks across the Irish Border-anything fit to be moved over the border this month, will be allowed to cross next month. The Dairyman on BBC news yesterday saying every tankerload will need to be checked was talking through his backside. In reality there will be virtually no checks.

I'm afraid it's not historic - if you compare it to the link below which specifically refers to Oct 31 you'll note that the rates on cheese and butter are the same. The link I posted earlier is more revealing because it compares it to the EU tariffs that would be imposed on the UK trying to export the other way in the event of No-Deal

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/temporary-rates-of-customs-duty-on-imports-after-eu-exit

https://ahdb.org.uk/eu-and-uk-import-tariff-rates-for-selected-dairy-products

 

[Still Farming]

Brexitiers continue to frustrate and confuse me but none so more than the "we can take it back to the good ol days" brigade. At no point has Brexit ever offered to bring about putting something that would put British Farmers first. Can you not grasp that the free market vision of Brexit we are being driven towards by Boris and his chums will deliver exactly the opposite? Less farm support, increased regulations and increased food imports. Do you live in some sort of parallel universe?

What "good old days" are you on about,?
We been lead a "merry dance" ever since we went into the common market ,EEC and then eu ?

 

[mixed farm]

If we don't leave we will end up the cesspit of the EU within 10 years as the EU will make an example of the UK

UK population will double as we will end up the dumping ground for all the immigrants coming into the EU

We will be forced to have the euro and we know what will happen then.

We will have to disband our armed forces and re deploy them in the EU army.

Our payments into the EU will triple at least with none of it coming back to the UK.

And that's just a few examples of what will happen!

Ah yes and you'll have to eat straight bananas ? and all them pesky foreigners will take your jobs and your women. Ye might even get the empire back and colonize some backward folk and show them how great Britain is.

 

[mixed farm]

Really. We joined the EEC. Look where we are now. The EU is has been moving to closer integration since its' inception Listen to what the EU politicians are saying. You either believe in a full United States of Europe, with one currency, full fiscal union with same taxes and welfare payments or you get out. You cannot stop the EU juggernaut just because the UK wants to. Everyone else is heading for full integration. There is no halfway house. If we stay in now we will be asked to drop our trousers and bend over. Let history be my judge.

Ireland have a different tax rate to France and Germany and we haven't changed it so whatever about history, presently you're judged to be wrong.

 

[Johnnyboxer]

[Withdrawn] Temporary import tariff rates and quotas after no-deal Brexit

The temporary non-preferential tariff rates and tariff-rate quotas (TRQ) on imports if the UK leaves the EU with no deal.

www.gov.uk

Current government no deal tariffs until updated.... not historic yet

Doesn't make good reading

 

[Jackov Altraids]

Ah yes and you'll have to eat straight bananas ? and all them pesky foreigners will take your jobs and your women. Ye might even get the empire back and colonize some backward folk and show them how great Britain is.

To make this comment is as pathetic as anyone who actually believed it.

As far as I'm aware, people have only referred to history to remind others that we can have lived quite happily not being part of the EU.
All the leave voters I speak to are forward looking and see the inevitable conflicts and issues ever closer union will bring. There are many who voted remain who completely lack the capacity to understand the reasons for leaving and are happy to be ignorant of the huge issues of remaining.
I believe in the theory of the intelligence of the masses and the referendum result proves that the decision on being a member of the EU is finely balanced. Only time will give the answer and will depend on factors that probably haven't even be considered yet.

 

[Johnnyboxer]

Correct
But there will also be tariffs on exports which will be alot higher

Very clear and not at all encouraging

We're doomed

 

[mixed farm]

To make this comment is as pathetic as anyone who actually believed it.

As far as I'm aware, people have only referred to history to remind others that we can have lived quite happily not being part of the EU.
All the leave voters I speak to are forward looking and see the inevitable conflicts and issues ever closer union will bring. There are many who voted remain who completely lack the capacity to understand the reasons for leaving and are happy to be ignorant of the huge issues of remaining.
I believe in the theory of the intelligence of the masses and the referendum result proves that the decision on being a member of the EU is finely balanced. Only time will give the answer and will depend on factors that probably haven't even be considered yet.

So you're saying that a substantial number of people who voted leave don't pine for the lost empire and somehow think that it will revert back again?

 

[rhifsaith]

If we leave the UK will be pulled apart as both Scotland and Wales clambering for independence!

200,000 marched in Edinburgh yesterday for Scots independence

Thousands march in support of Scottish independence

There was a party atmosphere as campaigners waving Saltires made their way up the Royal Mile.

www.bbc.co.uk