Reality of a No Deal Brexit

[bar718]

Because the alternative is a UK whose PMs bed is being kept warm by a vegan who shared a platform with George moonbat , Chris packham, Philip lymberry at the bird fair. We have a goldsmith at defra who’s spent years campaigning against agriculture. Michael give put Tony juniper as the chairman of Natural England pls look at some of these people. The 750 MEPs come from countries that Agricultural Matters they bring rationality to the debate.
The nonsense this week about nearest slaughter house is just the beginning we will have the most regulated industry from an environmental and welfare perspective in the world. Not that I’m against sensible regulations but jeez we will be importing from every sh*thole that will send cheap without any controls to keep food cheap.
Old man always said that in the 60/70/80 farming was a license to print money and we didn’t realise it we will look at this period in 10 years and wonder what happened.

I fear the old saying of the good old days may apply very soon to recent history and that is not a good outlook.

 

[Cowabunga]

Some of us have been pointing out that the EU is heavily protectionist and fear this move is just the beginning.

There is a counter-case against Boeing and the USA for many times the figure that the WTO have sanctioned as tariffs against the EU. This case is because the US subsidises Boeing through inflated military spending. The result of that WTO case is due next year.

Basically commercial aircraft production is commonly subsidised everywhere for strategic and political reasons. Should we be surprised by this? Of course not.

 

[ollie989898]

There is a counter-case against Boeing and the USA for many times the figure that the WTO have sanctioned as tariffs against the EU. This case is because the US subsidises Boeing through inflated military spending. The result of that WTO case is due next year.

Basically commercial aircraft production is commonly subsidised everywhere for strategic and political reasons. Should we be surprised by this? Of course not.

It's a bit rich to complain the USA spends too much money on defence when the average EU nation doesn't even manage the % of their GDP stipulated by NATO.

 

[Cowabunga]

We currently import more Mozzarella than we export, mostly from Denmark and Holland. If trade stopped now we would have a deficit of 48000 tonnes or over 450000 litres of milk. There will be no tariffs of UK produce to UK consumers. If there is a no-deal Brexit the pound will most likely weaken. If Glanbia cannot compete with imports then or now for that matter, you have to ask them what the hell they are playing at. Why will consumers pay more for imported Mozzarella than UK produced ? Ask Ganbia.
They are Irish owned. Go figure. Scaremongering IMHO

You seem to be totally confused as to how this works.

The UK government is proposing zero tariffs on imports. If they offer that to one country, they must offer it to all.

Zero tariffs will NOT be reciprocated by other countries, including the EU which already has set tariffs for food imported from outside the EU, which means us. Therefore anyone who currently exports will no longer be competitive.

To expect UK cheese factories that export a significant proportion to suddenly displace imports on domestic supermarket shelves must assume that it will need to be sold much cheaper than currently, and even then the housewife might stick with current brands out of habit.

Make no mistake about it, if we tumble out without a deal, ruminant agriculture in the UK will be totally f**ked in next to no time.

The good news is that many other businesses unrelated to agriculture will be too and most politicians know it and recognise it, even if many here don't. So they are trying their level best to prevent us diving out with no parachute.

 

[Cowabunga]

It's a bit rich to complain the USA spends too much money on defence when the average EU nation doesn't even manage the % of their GDP stipulated by NATO.

Straw man. Two completely unrelated subjects. % spent on defence per country has absolutely nothing to do with this. The issue is that the USA DOES subsidise Boeing, just as the EU subsidises our own aircraft industry.
Just the same as the USA does subsidise its agriculture.

 

[Johnnyboxer]

I think your missing the point we are currently still in the EU and yes industry is flying unemployment the lowest on record. The problems will come when/if we face tariffs on everything leaving the UK but our spineless muppets set all inbound tariffs to zero. If we have equal tariffs with a no deal fair enough or better than that a zero tariffs free trade agreement deal. But hey guess what we already have a completely integrated market with the largest trading block in the world, we are connected to it with a tunnel or a short water crossing already in place. Yes I respect the referendum but please stop the bullsh*t there is no shiny up side coming, everything will from an industry/trade agricultural export perspective will be worse than what we already have the best we can hope for is minimal disruptions and we can get back to somewhere near without opening the door to American/NZ/Australian beef/lamb/dairy. Yesterday the Americans put a 25% tarriff on dairy this will affect any current uk exports to the states directly plus if it affects the Irish butters that will also drive prices of butter across Europe lower. Free trade is key for everything the moment you add tariffs rules etc nobody wins.

But, but .......

We are taking back control

Plus the Blue Passports

 

[ollie989898]

Straw man. Two completely unrelated subjects. % spent on defence per country has absolutely nothing to do with this. The issue is that the USA DOES subsidise Boeing, just as the EU subsidises our own aircraft industry.
Just the same as the USA does subsidise its agriculture.

The USA spends a lot of money across the board on defence, and they place contracts with more than just Boeing- a lot of UK companies are fulfilling US defence contracts, I think even Bombardier are involved in some as well. So it is not exactly correct to call this subsidisation.

 

[Cowabunga]

The USA spends a lot of money across the board on defence, and they place contracts with more than just Boeing- a lot of UK companies are fulfilling US defence contracts, I think even Bombardier are involved in some as well. So it is not exactly correct to call this subsidisation.

You completely miss the point. They overpay for Boeing military aircraft as a hidden subsidy to the civilian product. That, I believe is one of the allegations put to the WTO in the current counter-case.

 

[Jackov Altraids]

i voted leave
under any deal mooted so far we are not leaving....only a no deal, bonfire of regs, protextionist brexit will set us free........first thing boris did was to announce zero import tarriffs.....second thing announce plans for more regulation...third thing rehash TM's deal....IMO remaining is better

As the UK' s ex-commissioner Hill said this morning, the EU has had 3 years without any input/ steering from the UK and it has used that time to steer a path even further from what the majority of people in the UK want [this includes many that voted remain].
Not leaving does not solve any problem but delivers us weakened into a union which is even more unpalatable.
After telling your wife you do not share her values and would rather be with her friends, changing your mind does not put you back where you were. The UK has a great future whether we get a deal or not. The damage to the UK is being done by those who refuse to accept a no deal and will not accept any deal in the hope both can be avoided.

 

[Exfarmer]

The USA spends a lot of money across the board on defence, and they place contracts with more than just Boeing- a lot of UK companies are fulfilling US defence contracts, I think even Bombardier are involved in some as well. So it is not exactly correct to call this subsidisation.

You realise that the US military buys a lot of second hand planes off Boeing that get traded in against new planes. Only US built ones of course. Some of these planes are converted to military transport tankers etc. But mostly they are parked up in Arizona as a “strategic reserve”. What these planes, some of which have not flown for 40 years or more are worth to the military is anybodies guess, but many people question why they were purchased so expensively

 

[yin ewe]

Because the alternative is a UK whose PMs bed is being kept warm by a vegan who shared a platform with George moonbat , Chris packham, Philip lymberry at the bird fair. We have a goldsmith at defra who’s spent years campaigning against agriculture. Michael give put Tony juniper as the chairman of Natural England pls look at some of these people. The 750 MEPs come from countries that Agricultural Matters they bring rationality to the debate.
The nonsense this week about nearest slaughter house is just the beginning we will have the most regulated industry from an environmental and welfare perspective in the world. Not that I’m against sensible regulations but jeez we will be importing from every sh*thole that will send cheap without any controls to keep food cheap.
Old man always said that in the 60/70/80 farming was a license to print money and we didn’t realise it we will look at this period in 10 years and wonder what happened.

https://www.agriland.ie/farming-new...eyond-its-carbon-and-environmental-means-epa/
https://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/cap-share-of-eu-budget-to-fall-from-38-to-29/
https://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/the-next-cap-will-priorise-climate-action-minister-creed/

The type of people/pressures you mention are seen in all EU countries. Anyone who thinks that agriculture/ payments will continue in their current form and level, regardless of EU membership is misguided.
Environmental schemes will be the new biggie, do the paperwork, collect the cheque, plant a few trees and go drink coffee in the cafe. Wait 20 years, take another cheque for ripping out the trees and returning the land to agricultural use when they discover that there ain't enough food to go round.

 

[Willie adie]

Reality is its all opinion, forecast, conjecture,
The truth is no one ACTUALLY KNOWS .

 

[Cowabunga]

Reality is its all opinion, forecast, conjecture,
The truth is no one ACTUALLY KNOWS .

To an extent. But I look at my posts [with tongue in cheek ] as liberating people from the tyranny and oppression of that ignorance. We can and do know the very probable result of a no-deal brexit. We also know that even while farmers continue to invest and produce even more food, prices are low and likely to get lower regardless of brexit, relative to unit output.

 

[betweenthelines]

You seem to be totally confused as to how this works.

The UK government is proposing zero tariffs on imports. If they offer that to one country, they must offer it to all.

Zero tariffs will NOT be reciprocated by other countries, including the EU which already has set tariffs for food imported from outside the EU, which means us. Therefore anyone who currently exports will no longer be competitive.

To expect UK cheese factories that export a significant proportion to suddenly displace imports on domestic supermarket shelves must assume that it will need to be sold much cheaper than currently, and even then the housewife might stick with current brands out of habit.

Make no mistake about it, if we tumble out without a deal, ruminant agriculture in the UK will be totally fudgeed in next to no time.

The good news is that many other businesses unrelated to agriculture will be too and most politicians know it and recognise it, even if many here don't. So they are trying their level best to prevent us diving out with no parachute.

Have you got a link to the Govt statement about zero tariffs on imports, or is that just supposition on your part? Ditto exports-true statement or a belief? WTO rules are not as strict as many people claim. "Temporary" deals of two years or more can be done with individual Countries while "negotiations" take place. So Boris could offer EU tariff free for a couple of years if they block any extension-and if even only 1 member bites, Boris legally gets a no-deal exit on the 31st.

 

[puffy]

Have you got a link to the Govt statement about zero tariffs on imports, or is that just supposition on your part? Ditto exports-true statement or a belief? WTO rules are not as strict as many people claim. "Temporary" deals of two years or more can be done with individual Countries while "negotiations" take place. So Boris could offer EU tariff free for a couple of years if they block any extension-and if even only 1 member bites, Boris legally gets a no-deal exit on the 31st.

See https://ahdb.org.uk/eu-and-uk-import-tariff-rates-for-selected-dairy-products

 

[I thats it]

I read a letter in farmers guardian that read something like this. "if we leave with no deal and if imports come in tariff free and if exports are charged tariffs and if UK government stop subsidy payments then farmer's will be worse off. WELL DONE SHERLOCK. Once I get to the second "IF" I start to switch off, truth is we don't know.

 

[holstein654]

I read a letter in farmers guardian that read something like this. "if we leave with no deal and if imports come in tariff free and if exports are charged tariffs and if UK government stop subsidy payments then farmer's will be worse off. WELL DONE SHERLOCK. Once I get to the second "IF" I start to switch off, truth is we don't know.

The government have published tariffs in the event of no deal. Minette batters challenged Theresa villiers at the Tory conference and got told to suck it up effectively not going to force up prices to consumers. Reality is going to hit home to some people soon.

 

[Exfarmer]

Have you got a link to the Govt statement about zero tariffs on imports, or is that just supposition on your part? Ditto exports-true statement or a belief? WTO rules are not as strict as many people claim. "Temporary" deals of two years or more can be done with individual Countries while "negotiations" take place. So Boris could offer EU tariff free for a couple of years if they block any extension-and if even only 1 member bites, Boris legally gets a no-deal exit on the 31st.

It is possible for the EU to give us a tarriff free holiday, but can you explain why they should, especially as the government has stated already it is not going to put tarriffs on imports

 

[Still Farming]

Everyone goes on about imports ,exports , just support everything in THIS COUNTRY FIRST!

 

[The Happy Herdsman]

Everyone goes on about imports ,exports , just support everything in THIS COUNTRY FIRST!

You're aware thats not how the world works right? Tractors built here are made of components sourced a from all across the world. Components for blend, fertilizer, dairy chemicals, the list goes on. This isn't the 1900s. Like it or not everything exists on a global stage and daft comments like that only prove the ignorance of some