What can we expect from harvest 22?

[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Yesterday, the AHDB released the latest Planting and Variety Survey figures for the UK. What can we expect from the harvest 22 crop?

Well, headline figures show that the forecasted UK wheat area is up by 1%, winter barley area up 10% and oilseed rape area up by 9% from 2021 Defra area data. Whereas small falls are forecasted for the area of spring barley area (down 12%) and oat area (down 9%).

There were some expectations that a large increase in wheat price at the end of February, due to the Ukraine Russian war outbreak, may result in a change to planting intentions. We have seen some small changes from the Early Bird Planting Intentions produced in December 2021, but no large jumps.

Using the survey area figures, we can apply a 5-year average yield from Defra data (2017 – 2021) to forecast production for harvest 22.

Using a UK average for 4 key crops, we can see that a production forecast for total wheat is 14,364Kt (14.4Mt) for harvest 22. This would be up 3% from the 2021 production if realised.

Total barley production is forecasted down 2% from 2021, to 6,830Kt. Oat production is forecasted down 13% to 983Kt. This oat production forecast is down from a record high crop in 2021, at 1,123Kt. Oilseed rape production is forecasted at 1,111Kt, up 13% from 2021.

Going forward, UK yields and crop quality will be key to follow closely as harvest progresses to assess the size of the harvest 22 crop.

We are seeing combines rolling across the Northern Hemisphere. French soft wheat is reportedly 14% harvested as at 4 July according to FranceAgrimer. This is ahead of 1% progress this time last year, due to recent dry weather. Though yields are expected to be variable, with the south not benefitting from rains seen in the north. Variability continues across the EU, with Spain and Italy suffering severe drought. Beneficial rain has arrived in Germany and Poland. Whereas Romania and Bulgaria are expected large crops. Weather remains something to watch.

Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - What can we expect from harvest 22?

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[Hampton]

So in wheat, barley and OSR you have predicted bigger yields than 2021.
Quelle surpris!
That could have come straight out of a usda report in how to talk the market down

 

[teslacoils]

If you cant say anything to support your levy payers, why not STFU? You seem to think that what we want in the UK are whopping yields to export everywhere at some pisspoor price.

 

[Clive]

To be logical if areas are up on last year and weather is no worse tha. last year we should see a bigger harvest overall

some areas have had it too dry but others have had it good, temperatures through key growing times haven been extreme


however, lets not forget how insignificant to price we are always told UK production and quality is in a world market ............. when such narative suits buyers at least anyway !

 

[Clive]

I haven't seen anyone shouting about exceptional Barley yields yet ? .......... I honesty think feedback from social media is a better judge of the market than any of this "technical' data these days, it was lack of pub yield bragging by just about anyone that made me think last harvest that yields were generally nothing special (conflicting with both AHDB and DEFRA data at the time) - I made good money off the back of that

 

[bobk]

I would snatch anyone's hand off who offered last years yields

 

[teslacoils]

I would snatch anyone's hand off who offered last years yields

Yup.

 

[Vader]

Wheats changed colour big time last 24hrs..

 

[Gormers]

Anyone found their OSR looking a tad smaller sample this year?
Rubbed some out yesterday definitely a difference

 

[Hampton]

To be logical if areas are up on last year and weather is no worse tha. last year we should see a bigger harvest overall

some areas have had it too dry but others have had it good, temperatures through key growing times haven been extreme


however, lets not forget how insignificant to price we are always told UK production and quality is in a world market ............. when such narative suits buyers at least anyway !

Which entirety makes sense.
Not how it reads though.
Nothing about that landings being up, purely about total yield being up.
It’s almost like a report for the trade rather than for farmers

 

[Chae1]

Not a lot. Spring barley going back into the ground.

 

[Vader]

Barley starting locally
Slow as combine temps high was told.
Yields nothing special.