An EU Rapeseed story will need to start in Canada, the next two weeks are critical. Canada weather and crop update.

EasyNewz

Member
Arable Farmer
Widespread drought and wildfires dominate Canadian weather.

Canada is dealing with more than 500 active wildfires due to drought in the western prairies and eastern parts of the country. Haze and air quality alerts affect almost one-third of Americans from the northern plains to the east coast and into the Carolinas.

Canada is experiencing one of the most widespread droughts in decades. Luckily, the temperatures have remained mild, not yet having the potential impact on crops like 2021. Good to excellent ratings for spring wheat have fallen from 87% to 70% and canola from 81% to 66% over the last four weeks.

Canada grows most of its row crops from central Manitoba, heading west to the foot of the Rocky Mountains in Alberta. Saskatchewan and Alberta are the worst-hit provinces, with soil moisture below 50% over the growing areas. The heart of the wheat and canola-producing regions is less than one-third of normal.

Farmers are still waiting to sound the alarm, but current forecasts have very little rain. The Canadian model is showing the potential for hotter temperatures into mid-July. The GFS remains much milder. Smaller grain and food markets such as barley, oats, lentils, and pulses will need to take notice.

Haze and smoke over the continental USA are expected to diminish into the holiday weekend, but these problems are not going away. The attitude toward grain markets has been muted, but watch out if the heat shows up.

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Flatlander

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Lorette Manitoba
In in southern Manitoba and dry here which isn’t normal for us. Crops look decent but with only limited soil moisture to fall back on we need timely rains or canola and soybeans will suffer. Wheat can withstand the dry better and the saving grace is it has been dry since seeding so roots are down deeper. Friends in Saskatchewan have seen rain in places but not the widespread soakers we need.
 

EasyNewz

Member
Arable Farmer
Thank you for the update. It very much seems to this point, the story for Canada has been traders outside Canada trying to make a bigger story, but now they will need rain in the coming weeks.
 

will l

Member
Arable Farmer
In in southern Manitoba and dry here which isn’t normal for us. Crops look decent but with only limited soil moisture to fall back on we need timely rains or canola and soybeans will suffer. Wheat can withstand the dry better and the saving grace is it has been dry since seeding so roots are down deeper. Friends in Saskatchewan have seen rain in places but not the widespread soakers we need.
Thought there was flooding in Brandon.
 

Flatlander

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Lorette Manitoba
Thank you for the update. It very much seems to this point, the story for Canada has been traders outside Canada trying to make a bigger story, but now they will need rain in the coming weeks.
Trader make their money from scaring buyer and seller with weather related stories. Keep in mind Canada is a very large expanse and western Canada is Many time bigger than the uk so it very hard to generalize and say crops are good or bad. But speaking from what I’ve seen most could use a good rain event.
 

David.

Member
Mixed Farmer
Location
J11 M40
Could very well be. Lots of very heavy storms in sw Manitoba. Very localized from what I’ve heard. Brandon is two and a half hours from me.
Had as much as 4" in heavy thunder storms around Cardale, last 3 weeks. But as you say, very localised and hit and miss, some places missed most of it
 

Flatlander

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Lorette Manitoba
Are the winnipeg canola futures quoted per tonne?
If so it equates to around £460 (£100 over our price)
Yes I’m pretty sure they are. Markets are nervous at the moment. Any rain forecast that’s a widespread tends to drop the futures but so far the rain events have amounted to barely light showers. As David said further west some areas got hammered. We are sitting around 1.5 inches since may 1st Canola cash price today is a bit either side of 18$ a bushel. 44.1 to the ton
 

PSQ

Member
Arable Farmer
Are the winnipeg canola futures quoted per tonne?
If so it equates to around £460 (£100 over our price)
Does that take into account ‘oil and moisture bonuses‘ etc?

(Paris currently at £394 equivalent)
 

Flatlander

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Lorette Manitoba
Yet to seed a oil bonus or deduction. Moisture below 10 percent or your taking it home. You’ll need to be lucky to get them loading a train that day fir them to take higher moisture. Oil testing and payments/deductions are coming.
 

will l

Member
Arable Farmer
Yes I’m pretty sure they are. Markets are nervous at the moment. Any rain forecast that’s a widespread tends to drop the futures but so far the rain events have amounted to barely light showers. As David said further west some areas got hammered. We are sitting around 1.5 inches since may 1st Canola cash price today is a bit either side of 18$ a bushel. 44.1 to the ton
Am i right 793.8 canadian dollars equals 539 euros or 460 pounds sterling?
 

Flatlander

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Lorette Manitoba
Do you use metric tonnes in canada? 1000KG
Yes. For most things it’s a metric tonne. Fuel is bought in litres. Speed limit is in kmh. Food is in grams and kilograms On the farm side it can get a little different. Farming only an hour from the US border a fair bit of our inputs originates in the states so when your buying products that were made there it pays to ask what your getting. A US gallon is 3.78 litres. A US ton or short ton is 2000 lbs. the bushel weight can also vary between a Winchester bushel and an imperial bushel Canadian bushel sometimes known as an Avery bushel. Lots of scope to get screwed if your not switched on.
 

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