Inflation

thesilentone

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
Cumbria
i think most of us were probably bought up this way, I certainly was

however i’m really not sure it’s the right way in today’s circumstances. Debt has paid handsomely vs saving over the least couple of decades and has made some very wealthy……. Many farmers who bought land. farms and other property with borrowed cash included

they were certainly not stupid or wrong and given time machines I bet we would all have borrowed every £ we could leverage buy assets worth many multiples today !

meanwhile those sensible savers who look down their nose at those spendfrift nutters are way worse off


Sad, but true.

We moved the business emphasis to property some years ago, with some borrowed money. For sometime, renting money has been easy to repay, and with those borrowings now cleared, we have a portfolio of some value.

My children will benefit, not us, however that's our choice. They were very young when we headed this direction, I now have 5 grandchildren.

Hopefully what we have achieved will rub-off, and they will take a similar attitude.

It's all about timing. Get it right, and you can really benefit, get it wrong and, well we all know the outcome.
 
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Jackov Altraids

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
Devon
I don't think you understand, Bitcoins are a trusted brand that can be converted into a real currency or asset. One Bitcoin is approx £30k where as one Dogecoin is about 25 pence.

I could start a new cryptocurrency it would have all the same standards as Bitcoin but it's highly unlikely anyone would readily trade it for something real.

But the value of Bitcoin or Dodgecoin is surely quite irrelevant?....

If I want to send you £2k, that is what you get whether it is 0.067 Bitcoin or 8000 Dodgecoin.
 

tepapa

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
North Wales
Being a humble peasent i'm not certain what leveraging means? Is it extending the mortgage and kicking the can down the road? Genuine question it's all a bit of a dark art to me.
Id say to think of it this way.
You buy house with mortgage. After a couple of years the house has gone up in value by £30k.
you increase the mortgage on the house to realise some of that 30k, let's say the banks lend 50% of that. Now you have a £15k deposit to buy another one. There's now more debt on the original house which your leveraging but your now buying a second house as well to increase your networth, well as long as your tenants are paying.
 
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thesilentone

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
Cumbria
Is say to think of it this way.
You buy house with mortgage. After a couple of years the house has gone up in value by £30k.
you increase the mortgage on the house to realise some of that 30k, let's say the banks lend 50% of that. Now you have a £15k deposit to buy another one. There's now more debt on the original house which your leveraging but your now buying a second house as well to increase your networth, well as long as your tenants are paying.

A pair of retired school teachers (mathematics) made millions using that system. They used equity release on property owned to buy the next, and the next one and so on. They used interest only mortgages to keep repayments to a minimum, and allowed increased values and rentals to ensure strong liquidity.

They sold them all for over £275m !

I wonder if they'd take £50.00 for the spreadsheet :ROFLMAO:

 

Clive

Staff Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Lichfield
I know a self made multi millionaire who made his money through investing etc , he’s old now and has seen a lot , he’s predicting the mother of all recessions starting in January, be interesting to see if he right or not .

he will be right …… eventually


question is will a recession make debt bad ? raising interest rates will make any recession worse

what will a government do to avoid or “fix” a recession ? My bet is they do what they always do now and print yet more money …….. if they do then yet again debt (used to buy assets ) will pay

Hyper inflation is a bigger risk than a recession now imo
 

thesilentone

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
Cumbria
I know a self made multi millionaire who made his money through investing etc , he’s old now and has seen a lot , he’s predicting the mother of all recessions starting in January, be interesting to see if he right or not .

The world population growth has gone vertical, demand will follow. The only things that can cause a recession are the Politicians and us.

Queuing for fuel has already seen pump prices rise, people are buying houses for more than market value, all of a sudden everything is in demand (including undertakers).
 

toquark

Member
he will be right …… eventually


question is will a recession make debt bad ? raising interest rates will make any recession worse

what will a government do to avoid or “fix” a recession ? My bet is they do what they always do now and print yet more money …….. if they do then yet again debt (used to buy assets ) will pay

Hyper inflation is a bigger risk than a recession now imo
Question really is for how long can we keep kicking the can down the road?

Clearly inflation is out of control, as the BoE seem to be conceding.
 

Tubbylew

Member
Location
Herefordshire
It'll be interesting to see what happens over the next 5 yrs. They seem to have painted themselves into a corner with interest rates. It has to rise at some point but most of the population haven't borrowed to increase their wealth, but to increase their standard of living, holidays and phones/cars/sofas/kitchens etc. Their will be a huge amount of pain for many if rates go up even slightly. Imo
 

thesilentone

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
Cumbria
We need managed inflation !!!

If not, we end up with peaks and troughs as the market corrects itself. It used to be in 10 year cycles, however the World has changed.

Look at property values in 2006, and compare them with today, they were way over valued, and in many cases have still not caught back up yet.

Two years of doldrums now see's everything in demand. Plus despite all the negatives we hear and read, many have lots to spend (in there eye's) so this will show increase's in prices, then of course inflation.

It's a spike, the question is for how long if it catch's on.

Managing it is the problem, as well as taking all the VAT and other stealth taxes.
 

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