Hello, fat lamb seems to be doing well now. How do people think it will stay for the rest of the year, stay up go down? It it worth getting store lambs now at the price fat ones were last year or it it quite risky? Specifically interested in NI but interested to hear about other parts of the world. Cheers
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Lamb Price/Future
- Thread starter farmer_Nick
- Start date
- Location
- Devon
It would be easy to predict if it wasn't for everyone else also trying to predict and their subsequent actions distorting the outcome.
For what it's worth [nort] I think it will relatively flatline for 12 months. I don't think it will drop too far but I don't see room for any great increases.
I would imagine that demand for stores and ewe lambs will prevent it dropping below £5 anytime this year.
For what it's worth [nort] I think it will relatively flatline for 12 months. I don't think it will drop too far but I don't see room for any great increases.
I would imagine that demand for stores and ewe lambs will prevent it dropping below £5 anytime this year.
- Location
- East Sussex
Simple analysis from my crystal ball with a health warning that your investment may decrease or increase.
There will be less lambs this year and for the next year, due to people keeping less breeders from last year over Brexit concerns and flock reductions.
Prices have been so high that many ewe hogs have been killed so there will be less to be kept for lambing in 2022.
You would be a brave person to keep back ewe lambs that can make £130 at the moment to kill.
There have been some other factors at play for the first 6 months of this year that won't be the same next year. Firstly more lambs were sold in 2020 due to the fears of Brexit. The world price for sheep meat has been exceptionally high due to factors such as China and ASF so imports from the southern hemisphere have been less or non existent, this looks likely to continue for a while.
Lockdowns have meant more people have been eating at home and have wanted better quality food. (Most cooking programmes use lamb)
The Muslim festivals of Eid and Qurbani have significantly helped to increase prices due to the timing this year (Qurbani is mid July).
Weather conditions have meant there is significantly more grass this year so there is not the pressure to sell early.
It would appear that for reasons outside of all sheep farmers control, the price has taken a long overdue adjustment upwards which should be sustainable for a couple of years as it will take that long for numbers to increase.
The major health warning would be that it is very difficult for the end users to make much profit out of lamb so demand may fall when the retail market balances out and there is more cheap chicken and imports start to be sucked in.
Saying that I am confident there won't be any significant fall in the price of lamb until August and this year hopefully that won't be too great.
I guess it will be 2023 before things can start to go wrong with an oversupply from around the world. I might be wrong though!!
There will be less lambs this year and for the next year, due to people keeping less breeders from last year over Brexit concerns and flock reductions.
Prices have been so high that many ewe hogs have been killed so there will be less to be kept for lambing in 2022.
You would be a brave person to keep back ewe lambs that can make £130 at the moment to kill.
There have been some other factors at play for the first 6 months of this year that won't be the same next year. Firstly more lambs were sold in 2020 due to the fears of Brexit. The world price for sheep meat has been exceptionally high due to factors such as China and ASF so imports from the southern hemisphere have been less or non existent, this looks likely to continue for a while.
Lockdowns have meant more people have been eating at home and have wanted better quality food. (Most cooking programmes use lamb)
The Muslim festivals of Eid and Qurbani have significantly helped to increase prices due to the timing this year (Qurbani is mid July).
Weather conditions have meant there is significantly more grass this year so there is not the pressure to sell early.
It would appear that for reasons outside of all sheep farmers control, the price has taken a long overdue adjustment upwards which should be sustainable for a couple of years as it will take that long for numbers to increase.
The major health warning would be that it is very difficult for the end users to make much profit out of lamb so demand may fall when the retail market balances out and there is more cheap chicken and imports start to be sucked in.
Saying that I am confident there won't be any significant fall in the price of lamb until August and this year hopefully that won't be too great.
I guess it will be 2023 before things can start to go wrong with an oversupply from around the world. I might be wrong though!!
May as well ask for next week's winning lottery numbers
I would say it will be incredibly hard to see store lambs leaving much margin at all this year. With the changing picture of countries coming out of covid eventually with the vaccines taking effect, foreign travel and restraunts re opening in larger numbers, a larger customer base for store lambs after seeing the trade this last year. In its favour is global demand for red meat is very high with large amounts from Australia/NZ lamb going into Asia rather than making its way to Europe. It's all a gamble, roll the dice if you feel confident, I think we have had next years profit this year so I won't be diving into lambs at a daft price but will still try our hand; he who dares.
spin cycle
Member
- Location
- north norfolk
i agree with FTW....i think things will be good until china re builds it's pig herd.....when that is i don't know but they don't mess about
beardface
Member
- Location
- East Yorkshire
From what I've read they aren't planning to rebuild. Just make there own herds more efficient and buy in more from abroad. I'd say southern hemisphere red meat will struggle to get here in large volumes indefinitely. Land use changes, weather extremes and a growing demand from middle east/Asia being the main reasons. Many people think Aus trade deal is selling our souls to the devil. I think we'd be mental not to use it as a stepping stone to the fastest growing red meat market (Asia,CPTPP).
- Location
- sw scotland
Last year was good for store lambs but there have been some painful experiences in the past. I still feel Brexit is the biggest risk if EU throws the toys out of the pram over the sausages to Ireland.