SHEEP BREED SURVEY What do you think?

[easyram1]

AHDB are releasing the results of the latest Sheep breed Survey next monday This is the fifth such survey since 1971 and acc/the blurb 'Amongst other things it tells us about the distribution of breeds in the UK sheep industry and indicates the way in which current breeding policies in the lowland and hill sector will influence future lamb production'.
So what do people expect it to show? A few suggestions ( possibly with slight tongue in cheek) from normal TFF consensus over the years

• Charollais are dominant or even the only terminal breed worth having (certainly in the lowlands).
• Suffolks heading for oblivion or reached it ( and surely they are now way below Charollais in terms of market share
• Huge increase in Wool shedders. I assume the only breed(s) actually increasing in size.
• Stratified Hill system continues to thrive
• Texels remain biggest terminal breed and indeed increase their market share

 

[Tim W]

AHDB are releasing the results of the latest Sheep breed Survey next monday This is the fifth such survey since 1971 and acc/the blurb 'Amongst other things it tells us about the distribution of breeds in the UK sheep industry and indicates the way in which current breeding policies in the lowland and hill sector will influence future lamb production'.
So what do people expect it to show? A few suggestions ( possibly with slight tongue in cheek) from normal TFF consensus over the years

• Charollais are dominant or even the only terminal breed worth having (certainly in the lowlands).
• Suffolks heading for oblivion or reached it ( and surely they are now way below Charollais in terms of market share
• Huge increase in Wool shedders. I assume the only breed(s) actually increasing in size.
• Stratified Hill system continues to thrive
• Texels remain biggest terminal breed and indeed increase their market share

You got it all wrong @easyram1

• Vallais spotty blue nose are the saviour of the maternal ewe lines
• Vallais spotty blue nose (Big Arse type) overtake all other terminal sires
• wool shedding the most rapidly introduced maternal trait (after spotty blue noses)
• Most people don't give a dam
• 

 

[spin cycle]

how can charolais be ' dominant' yet texels are 'biggest and continue to increase market share'?

 

[easyram1]

You got it all wrong @easyram1

• Vallais spotty blue nose are the saviour of the maternal ewe lines
• Vallais spotty blue nose (Big Arse type) overtake all other terminal sires
• wool shedding the most rapidly introduced maternal trait (after spotty blue noses)
• Most people don't give a dam
• 

Even if I am wrong I am a least consistent ( ie I am always wrong inside EasyRam Towers )

 

[andybk]

You got it all wrong @easyram1

• Vallais spotty blue nose are the saviour of the maternal ewe lines
• Vallais spotty blue nose (Big Arse type) overtake all other terminal sires
• wool shedding the most rapidly introduced maternal trait (after spotty blue noses)
• Most people don't give a dam
• 

They are simply the worst sheep i have ever handled ,no loin, no arse , overshot , below traditional rare breeds , nothing going for them , except pretty wool when clean (the ones ive handled) ,

 

[easyram1]

how can charolais be ' dominant' yet texels are 'biggest and continue to increase market share'?

Very valid question. The forecasts I made are merely my interpretation of assorted threads over recent years

 

[spin cycle]

Very valid question. The forecasts I made are merely my interpretation of assorted threads over recent years

sorry i misread your original post ..misinterpreted

it'll say scottish blackface is by far the most important sheep in the british isles and the rest of us argue constantly over a very small % of uk flock

 

[sheepwise]

Around here hill sheep are rapidly being replaced by trees. Can think of 5 hill farms(3000 ewes) within 15 miles of here planted in last year or about to be planted.

 

[Agrivator]

The Charollais and many Beltexes tups, when crossed with normal maternal breeds, produce too many bare-headed lambs which are susceptible to fly damage - at least in a year like this.

 

[Purli R]

Around here hill sheep are rapidly being replaced by trees. Can think of 5 hill farms(3000 ewes) within 15 miles of here planted in last year or about to be planted.

Same in yorkshire Dales area

 

[Global ovine]

Perception from public chatter can often be misleading when observing trends. History shows us that there is little change unless the impacting forces on an industry change, then reaction occurs.

So what were the trends in the last survey? Let me copy the main points in the Pollot Report for Eblex (2014)

• 106 different sheep breeds in use in the UK.
• Xbreds out numbered Purebreds.
• Main Hill Breeds decreased in all 3 countries.
• Newer breeds (Lleyn, Texel, Blue faced Leicester and Composites eg. EasyCare) increased in number.
• All other breeds decreased.

What impacting changes have occurred in the UK sheep industry since 2014?

• Carcass grading and marketing systems has remained. Price cycling has continued, currently at a peak.
• Wool prices have steadily declined across the whole strong wool range.
• Management costs and compliance rules have increased.
• Brexit and forecasted reductions/basis in subsidies now outlined in the last 12 months.

What has been the reaction?

• Sheep marketing and price signals have remained unchanged.
• Some sectors giving up on wool production.
• Ewe maintenance costs, ease of lambing and outdoor lambing options causing some farmers to question their cost structures.
• Brexit and subsidy removal has been too recent to see sheep generational change as a reaction.
• Animal health concerns are driving the move to more self replacing flocks, rather than reliance upon sourcing breeding ewes from the stratified industry structure.

What is my best guess?

• The trend from 2014 will continue into this latest survey report.
• However the future trends beyond the 2021 survey (soon to be published) will most certainly change as the impacting forces resulting from Brexit and more exposure to global trade and subsidy reduction/basis change will further force all aspects of efficiency to be paramount in farmers minds.
• Environmental policy constraints and the price of Carbon Credits will see land use changes in the hill country.
• Intensive sheep production will increase in regions where solely arable systems currently exits for weed control and soil carbon conservation/sequestration reasons.
• Like other countries where subsidies have gone or reduced, scale, reproductive efficiency, ability to grow off pasture only, requiring less inputs across the board, hence a greater emphasis on enterprise profitability.
• Therefore a future report covering the period we are now entering will undoubtedly show a changing trend, as farmers react to the forces of current and forecasted market and production system rules.

If I'm wrong?

• I'll line up to buy a Spotted Bluenose Vallais with the rest of you.

 

[Jackov Altraids]

I still think the survey is designed to help the the rest of the sheep industry at the expense of farmers and a lack of input from those that share that view make the results pretty inaccurate.

Global Ovine has got things pretty well summed up.

We will all continue to farm according to the payment grids.

The perverse thing about the sheep industry is that good prices tend to reduce numbers kept for breeding while poor returns tends to cause flock expansion.

 

[andybk]

• The trend from 2014 will continue into this latest survey report.
• However the future trends beyond the 2021 survey (soon to be published) will most certainly change as the impacting forces resulting from Brexit and more exposure to global trade and subsidy reduction/basis change will further force all aspects of efficiency to be paramount in farmers minds.
• Environmental policy constraints and the price of Carbon Credits will see land use changes in the hill country.
• Intensive sheep production will increase in regions where solely arable systems currently exits for weed control and soil carbon conservation/sequestration reasons.
• Like other countries where subsidies have gone or reduced, scale, reproductive efficiency, ability to grow off pasture only, requiring less inputs across the board, hence a greater emphasis on enterprise profitability.
• Therefore a future report covering the period we are now entering will undoubtedly show a changing trend, as farmers react to the forces of current and forecasted market and production system rules.

If I'm wrong?

• I'll line up to buy a Spotted Bluenose Vallais with the rest of you.

Pretty much spot on , Think there will be a shift to arable (land) sheep flocks again ,prob earlyish lambing /inby indoors then out onto catch crop / clean ley ,then onto downland (arable valleys) to manage that grazing for nature ,(stocking rate management) lambs maybe crept so gone early to reduce work load in autumn , could even get intensive at certain time of year , hills will be rewilded to some extent with later lambing flocks as now on the better bits , lambs sold store onto above for finishing , future looks bright even without bps if prices remain at current levels , though input cost needs watching like a hawk, thats where the arable gains with less inputs in feed and med (wormers etc) and being paid to plant green cover crops over winter