So much for market forces......

[Cowabunga]

The Duck would blame anything on brexit. Weather, cricket scores, 1.5ppl its all old hat.

That's just about your level of understanding. No doubt about it.

 

[Hfd Cattle]

Out of the western daily press a couple of weeks ago .....

 

[Cowabunga]

i though brexit was supposed to be good for dairy?

In what way? It really shouldn't be as bad as for the sheep market but export tariffs will hit dairy exports badly.
A free trade deal with the EU will leave us as we are. A free trade deal with America will mean tariffs into the EU and American tariff free imports to the UK. Not much probability of any meaningful dairy or food exports the other way, from the UK to America.
The reason that so many beef and sheep farmers in this area seem to be going into dairy for the first time is presumably because they realise the pickle they are in and think that dairy is a road to prosperity. I hope they don't burn their fingers too badly.

 

[ollie989898]

David Handley's bit is very interesting.

 

[lloyd]

You mean FFA with their counter productive fuel protests .
Red diesel was under the radar at the time and dirt cheap,
look at the price of it now .
Who gives a monkeys what an ex dairy protester says .
Of course they will
still buy our lamb but at a much reduced price .
Not much good if you want to make a decent living out
of the job.

 

[Cowabunga]

Yes, of course they want to continue UK supplies of lamb. That doesn't mean that they will pay current prices PLUS any tariff the EU imposes. THAT is the point, not the loss of volume at current terms and prices. I'm surprised that Handley did not appreciate this. Its the same with beef of course. The market will still be there, but will we be able to supply them at sustainable prices for our farmers? Not that ollie gives a flying f**k about that or understood it until I pointed it out. Doubt whether he still does or cares though.

 

[Cowabunga]

You mean FFA with their counter productive fuel protests .
Red diesel was under the radar at the time and dirt cheap
Look at the price of it now .
Who gives a monkey's what an ex dairy protester says .
Of course they will
still buy our lamb but at a much reduced price .
Not much good if you want to make a decent living out
of the job.

Spot on the point! At least some of us 'get it'.

 

[Henarar]

Yes, of course they want to continue UK supplies of lamb. That doesn't mean that they will pay current prices PLUS any tariff the EU imposes. THAT is the point, not the loss of volume at current terms and prices. I'm surprised that Handley did not appreciate this. Its the same with beef of course. The market will still be there, but will we be able to supply them at sustainable prices for our farmers? Not that ollie gives a flying fudge about that or understood it until I pointed it out. Doubt whether he still does or cares though.

so the EU are going to make their own people pay more for lamb or go without

 

[digger64]

Yes, of course they want to continue UK supplies of lamb. That doesn't mean that they will pay current prices PLUS any tariff the EU imposes. THAT is the point, not the loss of volume at current terms and prices. I'm surprised that Handley did not appreciate this. Its the same with beef of course. The market will still be there, but will we be able to supply them at sustainable prices for our farmers? Not that ollie gives a flying fudge about that or understood it until I pointed it out. Doubt whether he still does or cares though.

Yes, of course they want to continue UK supplies of lamb. That doesn't mean that they will pay current prices PLUS any tariff the EU imposes. THAT is the point, not the loss of volume at current terms and prices. I'm surprised that Handley did not appreciate this. Its the same with beef of course. The market will still be there, but will we be able to supply them at sustainable prices for our farmers? Not that ollie gives a flying fudge about that or understood it until I pointed it out. Doubt whether he still does or cares though.

What is sustainable about the present system , working on narrow margins blindly overlooking sensitivity factors ?

 

[Bossfarmer]

In what way? It really shouldn't be as bad as for the sheep market but export tariffs will hit dairy exports badly.
A free trade deal with the EU will leave us as we are. A free trade deal with America will mean tariffs into the EU and American tariff free imports to the UK. Not much probability of any meaningful dairy or food exports the other way, from the UK to America.
The reason that so many beef and sheep farmers in this area seem to be going into dairy for the first time is presumably because they realise the pickle they are in and think that dairy is a road to prosperity. I hope they don't burn their fingers too badly.

a lot of folk switching?

 

[Cowabunga]

What is sustainable about the present system , working on narrow margins blindly overlooking sensitivity factors ?

If you can't work out how to 'reply' properly I'm not surprised that you are baffled by the workings of the world. What the heck are 'sensitivity factors'?

 

[digger64]

If you can't work out how to 'reply' properly I'm not surprised that you are baffled by the workings of the world. What the heck are 'sensitivity factors'?

You really dont know ? Explains a bit

 

[Cowabunga]

a lot of folk switching?

Yes, mostly in Ceredigion. It really is baffling why in this area. There's a North Wales based business who is putting two massive units in locally, one very near me. 400+ milking cows and paying £200/acre rent for 15 years, permeably with rent reviews at least twice, and putting a whole new Greenfield unit up. Dozens of water troughs have already gone in the fields. The owner of the land relies almost completely on area subsidies for a living currently and probably sees that revenue stream drying up.
Quite how the sums add up with 100% employed labour, huge start-up capital and a system that will not be owned at the end of term is anyone's guess.
The other similar system is going in near Tregaron apparently

 

[Cowabunga]

You really dont know ? Explains a bit

I doubt very much if you know what you are talking about

 

[digger64]

I doubt very much if you know what you are talking about

Looks like I've found one I hadnt thought of ?

 

[Derrick Hughes]

a lot of folk switching?

Yes .sheep and beef have been a dead loss since headage payments went . Just pushing money about and now SFP has all but fallen to base levels then cant live on the return it brings in

 

[ollie989898]

You mean FFA with their counter productive fuel protests .
Red diesel was under the radar at the time and dirt cheap,
look at the price of it now .
Who gives a monkeys what an ex dairy protester says .
Of course they will
still buy our lamb but at a much reduced price .
Not much good if you want to make a decent living out
of the job.

Errr..... and the above has any relevance to the article posted how? Do you feel better now you have slighted the man?

 

[lloyd]

You need to re read the article along with the title thread.
Just because some don't believe Brexit will help the sectors of farming they
are in doesn't mean they deserve to be accused of peddling lies .
Out of interest what sectors of farming are you involved in?

 

[Kiwi Pete]

Yes, mostly in Ceredigion. It really is baffling why in this area. There's a North Wales based business who is putting two massive units in locally, one very near me. 400+ milking cows and paying £200/acre rent for 15 years, permeably with rent reviews at least twice, and putting a whole new Greenfield unit up. Dozens of water troughs have already gone in the fields. The owner of the land relies almost completely on area subsidies for a living currently and probably sees that revenue stream drying up.
Quite how the sums add up with 100% employed labour, huge start-up capital and a system that will not be owned at the end of term is anyone's guess.
The other similar system is going in near Tregaron apparently

Sounds really similar to here in the respect that the guys who went in early got good dairy land cheap, and have made millions in the ensuing period (albeit with hiccups) - while the conversions now are trending toward more marginal land, now the early entrants have trebled the price of everything!

.. if you're going to sit on the fence for 30 years, then expect sore balls ? timing is crucial in business.
I'd only recommend a dairy conversion to someone I really didn't like.

 

[steveR]

Sounds really similar to here in the respect that the guys who went in early got good dairy land cheap, and have made millions in the ensuing period (albeit with hiccups) - while the conversions now are trending toward more marginal land, now the early entrants have trebled the price of everything!

.. if you're going to sit on the fence for 30 years, then expect sore balls ? timing is crucial in business.
I'd only recommend a dairy conversion to someone I really didn't like.

My better half milked cows for 10 years before she saw the light and moved in with me...

I made a suggestion a few weeks ago that maybe we should diversify into milk... Her response was less than enthusiastic, admittedly on different grounds to yourself Pete!! However it does seem a somewhat risky enterprise to put a lot of wonga into at present .