Just goes too show how wheat has been devalued. If true.

ollie989898 · Dec 2, 2020

glasshouse said:
Your away on some tangent now

Not really.

People like to assume that some incredibly rare event will mean wheat prices MUST reach surely reach some incredible value that a barley baron can only dream of? I merely believe that such thinking is nonsensical- there are many other foodstuffs today besides wheat and no one is obliged to eat it. The developed world also wastes (or rejects) an incalculable volume of food which could (and would, if history is any guide) be eaten in a pinch if the situation dictated it.

The world's farmers are much better at what they do than any comparable effort in 1800, we have modern storage, processing and agriculture today is global- someone is harvesting a crop every week of the year today somewhere. Also, in the scheme of things, the amount of wheat that Europe produces is pish all anyway because other commodities are grown and eaten in huge tonnages elsewhere.

Goweresque · Dec 2, 2020

Even if some sort of natural disaster created failed crops and mass starvation, there is no way farmers would be allowed to make out like bandits on the back of it. If the Uk wasn't directly in the firing line and still able to produce, land would be nationalised in an instant, much as it was during the war. Farmers might keep nominal control of their land but all work would be directed by the State - what was grown, and where, and all the output would go to State controlled bodies at legally fixed prices.

The idea that wheat price could go to £1000/tonne and farmers would be getting all of it is utter fantasy. The best we can hope for is some fairly mild but widespread reduction in output globally, that forces market prices consistently above £200/tonne (say) but isn't that drastic a problem that governments feel the need to step in.

ollie989898 · Dec 2, 2020

glasshouse said:
“Only 18 yrs”
Ffs

It is a true figure I have read in a peer-reviewed publication. I found it staggering myself I must say. But the average life expectancy in the developed world is 79 for males meaning a loss of 18 years brings you to 61, just two years shy of the average for males in the least developed countries in the world.

ollie989898 · Dec 2, 2020

Goweresque said:
Even if some sort of natural disaster created failed crops and mass starvation, there is no way farmers would be allowed to make out like bandits on the back of it. If the Uk wasn't directly in the firing line and still able to produce, land would be nationalised in an instant, much as it was during the war. Farmers might keep nominal control of their land but all work would be directed by the State - what was grown, and where, and all the output would go to State controlled bodies at legally fixed prices.

The idea that wheat price could go to £1000/tonne and farmers would be getting all of it is utter fantasy. The best we can hope for is some fairly mild but widespread reduction in output globally, that forces market prices consistently above £200/tonne (say) but isn't that drastic a problem that governments feel the need to step in.

The Arab spring showed what high commodity prices could do. The people became angry and difficult to control, as a result, governments intervened to protect themselves. Either they sourced supplies from abroad, fixed the price nationally, banned exports, took control of supplies by force or they capitulated and left office/'regime change'.

History has clearly shown that hungry people, being desperate, are difficult to control, have nothing to lose and can be very unpredictable.

glasshouse · Dec 2, 2020

ollie989898 said:
Not really.

People like to assume that some incredibly rare event will mean wheat prices MUST reach surely reach some incredible value that a barley baron can only dream of? I merely believe that such thinking is nonsensical- there are many other foodstuffs today besides wheat and no one is obliged to eat it. The developed world also wastes (or rejects) an incalculable volume of food which could (and would, if history is any guide) be eaten in a pinch if the situation dictated it.

The world's farmers are much better at what they do than any comparable effort in 1800, we have modern storage, processing and agriculture today is global- someone is harvesting a crop every week of the year today somewhere. Also, in the scheme of things, the amount of wheat that Europe produces is pish all anyway because other commodities are grown and eaten in huge tonnages elsewhere.

It wasnt just europe
If you bothered to read the post it was the whole northern hemisphere.
Probsbly the southern too

PSQ · Dec 2, 2020

ollie989898 said:
Let me get this straight, you are basing your hopes on a global catastrophe to raise grain prices?

No. Don’t be a dick.

Goweresque · Dec 2, 2020

ollie989898 said:
The Arab spring showed what high commodity prices could do. The people became angry and difficult to control, as a result, governments intervened to protect themselves. Either they sourced supplies from abroad, fixed the price nationally, banned exports, took control of supplies by force or they capitulated and left office/'regime change'.

The problem such Middle Eastern governments had was they were already subsidising the price of basic foodstuffs. Buying grain at world prices then selling to the bakers etc at below cost, to reduce the cost of food for the masses. Thus while the price of wheat might have gone up by 50% ( for example, I'm not sure exactly what the rise was in 2008) as the price of bread in the shops was so low to start with, adding the rise in the world market price to that low shop price resulted in a massive % rise in the retail price. Prices doubled or more in the shops.

Farmer Roy · Dec 2, 2020

Farma Parma said:
and just imagine if you could yield 4-5t to the ac at them prices eh.
whats the ave yield over there?

wheat yields ?
How long is a piece of string ?
Highly variable depending on location, soil types, massive seasonal variation & wether dryland or irrigation

here, dryland, I’d work on a long term average of 1.5 t / acre, 2 t is perfectly achievable & I have done 3 t, but we need a kind spring ( or irrigation ) to get that
But in higher rainfall zones or under irrigation, potential is higher again.
I quoted $250 - what is high protein ( over 13 % ) milling wheat worth to the grower, on farm, in the UK ?
we have significant transport costs & freight to get our milling wheat to domestic end users or to export ports

from a quick google AUD $250 is about £138

Christoph1945 · Dec 2, 2020

Those in positions of power hate having to depend upon us plebs and that includes farmers. Not so long ago a British politician said that they didn't really need farmers, we could import all our food; well enough for them anyway!

Robotics are replacing work forces on the shop floor and are slowly creeping into the farming industry but perhaps no one has really noticed yet. The chemical barons long to produce synthetic meat and milk in their factories and as for cereals and other crops, they long to developed multistore indoor fields that will be artificially illuminated all year round whilst being watered and fertilised on demand.

Welcome to a brave new world!

Farmer Roy · Dec 2, 2020

When talking wheat prices, we also need to make sure we are comparing like for like . . .

I don’t know about the UK, but here there can be a $100 price difference between “feed” wheat ( the lowest grade ) & hard milling wheat

7610 super q · Dec 2, 2020

So. In 50 years time, will we be happy with wheat still at £200/ ton, a combine costing £1 million, a tractor costing £250k, fert at £500/ ton, Diesel £5/ L, land at £50k / acre ?

stewart · Dec 2, 2020

These graphs showing a "decline" in wheat prices over the decades, or the amount of hours worked to buy basic food supples are trotted out on a regular basis, they are fairly meaningless and achieve nothing, apart from being able to have a good whinge about how hard done to farmers are.
There are 3 things that control the price of wheat and any other commodity you care to think of, they are, the market, the market and the market.

stewart · Dec 2, 2020

7610 super q said:
So. In 50 years time, will we be happy with wheat still at £200/ ton, a combine costing £1 million, a tractor costing £250k, fert at £500/ ton, Diesel £5/ L, land at £50k / acre ?

Possibly, although as I am unable to see into the future, who knows!

stewart · Dec 2, 2020

Farma Parma said:
U might have grown your business. i havnt..... and they say progress is getting bigger.

Farmer Roy said:
actually, in that time frame, my OD limit is 10 x . . .
from $100K in the 90's to $1million now

OD limits or a monetary amount of borrowings are just figures, the important bit is the debt to asset ratio, 100K of debt with assets of 100k, $1m debt with assets of $2m or $15m of debt with assets of $60m, which is preferable?

stewart · Dec 2, 2020

Farmer Roy said:
im guessing in 1264 there werent any agricultural subsidies in Britain ( what was it called then ? Briton ? Great Britain ? It wasnt one "united" kingdom back then. Was it just England / Scotland / Wales / Cornwall ?? ) or anywhere for that matter ?

not much export grain grown in the major areas of north america, south america, the red sea or australia either . . .

not many other things for discretionary spending to compete with the food dollar . . .

did ( Britain / UK / insert name of choice ) even have a currency or legal tender in 1264 ?

or did the handful of rich & the church have all the land & gold & everyone else scraped a survival somehow ?

In the early 1800s UK grain prices were kept artificially high to enable the landed gentry to live in opulence, the downside was food was unaffordable for the masses, from an Australian point of view this did help to populate your country.

kiwi pom · Dec 2, 2020

wanton dwarf said:
I always look at relative price increases.

Bread has gone up from circa £1.20 to £1.50-£1.95, similar increases for pastries and cakes. Breakfast Cereals have increased in price circa 20-25%.

If 1kg of Wheat goes into making an 800g loaf - of which a significant amount is water.

If Wheat has increased from £170 to £210 a tonne. That means the farmer got an extra 4p a loaf .. I know the price I pay for bread fluctuates regularly by 20p. So IMHO the price the farmer could get could easily increase by 10p and hardly be noticed.

Of course the way to circumvent all these problems is for farmers to start producing Bread etc and owning retail outlets.

It probably good and might even encourage to grow it.
It doesn't matter how much bread costs if the farmer is growing feed wheat though.
I agree with you on farmers owning more of the supply chain. Some farmers here got fed up with the wheat price. They decided to do something about it and invest some money. I imagine it would be a lot bigger if they had a 60 million population to feed, instead of just 5.

Farmers Mill Online Store

ollie989898 · Dec 2, 2020

Christoph1945 said:
Those in positions of power hate having to depend upon us plebs and that includes farmers. Not so long ago a British politician said that they didn't really need farmers, we could import all our food; well enough for them anyway!

Robotics are replacing work forces on the shop floor and are slowly creeping into the farming industry but perhaps no one has really noticed yet. The chemical barons long to produce synthetic meat and milk in their factories and as for cereals and other crops, they long to developed multistore indoor fields that will be artificially illuminated all year round whilst being watered and fertilised on demand.

Welcome to a brave new world!

The rise of vegan products and their marketing is entirely driven, in my view, by the potential profits companies can glean from them. Generally speaking, vegetable based ingredients are cheaper to buy and allow a bigger profit margin. It's no secret food companies are trying to get the consumers away from meat and onto other alternatives.

glasshouse · Dec 2, 2020

kiwi pom said:
It probably good and might even encourage to grow it.
It doesn't matter how much bread costs if the farmer is growing feed wheat though.
I agree with you on farmers owning more of the supply chain. Some farmers here got fed up with the wheat price. They decided to do something about it and invest some money. I imagine it would be a lot bigger if they had a 60 million population to feed, instead of just 5.

Farmers Mill Online Store

Farmers grow feed wheat because they get fed up of getting ripped off by millers with their ridiculous deductions.
Growing and delivering A quality product for tuppence above feed price sucks

Bogweevil · Dec 2, 2020

glasshouse said:
Yield is not times four
Input costs are massive
Backin 1700 they spent nothing

The tithes stung a bit though.

Christoph1945 · Dec 2, 2020

Bogweevil said:
The tithes stung a bit though.

Still a few of those old tithe barns left here and there!

Just goes too show how wheat has been devalued. If true.

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