Early yields from Eastern Europe

[warksfarmer]

Doesn’t look to good. Hopefully it’ll carry on and hold prices where they are. Add in the below average USDA predictions and we might just see group 1 at £250 because it’s over £200 for Nov already.

 

[bobk]

French yields look good , they're cutting at weekends . 2 trailers in a field shows there's some on it .

 

[Chae1]

First cut stuff normally worst yielding. Especially on a dry year.

 

[DanniAgro]

Reports are thar Australian yields are up over 10m tons so far, sorry to be the bearer of bad news.

 

[David.]

In a year when Aus has a really bad harvest, the Trade inform us that their harvest is a fairly insignificant influence on our prices.

 

[glasshouse]

Reports are thar Australian yields are up over 10m tons so far, sorry to be the bearer of bad news.

No, thats crap
They have sown a lot of wheat this yr after rain, but is only just through the ground.
Plenty to go wrong yet

 

[DanniAgro]

No, thats crap
They have sown a lot of wheat this yr after rain, but is only just through the ground.
Plenty to go wrong yet

Okay, the trade must be wrong.

 

[David.]

The Trade want our grain as cheaply as they can beg it, and the drip, drip of "bad news" from around the globe is designed to further their agenda.

 

[glasshouse]

Okay, the trade must be wrong.

The trade are cnuts

 

[glasshouse]

Okay, the trade must be wrong.

The aussies sow wheat in may and june
Yhere is no “yield” till december

 

[B'o'B]

Okay, the trade must be wrong.

its like ”the Trade“ telling us in November that U.K. wheat crop will yield 17million tonnes. They haven’t really got a clue, and they will adjust their estimate accordingly to growing conditions over the next 10 months for both the Oz and Argentinian wheat crops.

We are 4-6 weeks from harvest and I still haven’t got a very accurate estimate of what my fields will actually yield, nor have any of people from “the trade“ who have walked my fields in the last week. And I did ask them directly as they were standing in the fields.

 

[crazy_bull]

In a year when Aus has a really bad harvest, the Trade inform us that their harvest is a fairly insignificant influence on our prices.

Everyone expects them to have problems, when they have a good harvest it is a problem as it means most will get exported, as domestic demand relatively small. That's the reasons behind the above statement.



C B

 

[yellow belly]

ausi wheat will not usually get to the uk plenty of markets on their side of the world
hopefully the farmers over there get a descent crop for their survival
we in the uk have to grow wheat of a quality we can market into the market this side of the world

a big heap of hard feed wheat has to compete with maize from next year which will be at a discount to any other wheat produced any where else
feed wheat should be down graded class 1 2 or3 because of weather
when weather plays ball at harvest we can supply all the uks wheat requirements provide we plant the right variety
this year class 3 wheat will have a healthy premium

 

[Clive]

French yields look good , they're cutting at weekends . 2 trailers in a field shows there's some on it .

france is a big place ! paris basin isn’t good, they were wetter than us this autumn/ winter and drilled very little wheat

 

[Clive]

its like ”the Trade“ telling us in November that U.K. wheat crop will yield 17million tonnes. They haven’t really got a clue, and they will adjust their estimate accordingly to growing conditions over the next 10 months for both the Oz and Argentinian wheat crops.

We are 4-6 weeks from harvest and I still haven’t got a very accurate estimate of what my fields will actually yield, nor have any of people from “the trade“ who have walked my fields in the last week. And I did ask them directly as they were standing in the fields.

remove the 1 from 17 and you might be closer this year

 

[Brisel]

ausi wheat will not usually get to the uk plenty of markets on their side of the world
hopefully the farmers over there get a descent crop for their survival
we in the uk have to grow wheat of a quality we can market into the market this side of the world

a big heap of hard feed wheat has to compete with maize from next year which will be at a discount to any other wheat produced any where else
feed wheat should be down graded class 1 2 or3 because of weather
when weather plays ball at harvest we can supply all the uks wheat requirements provide we plant the right variety
this year class 3 wheat will have a healthy premium

Australian wheat can displace U.K. Wheat indirectly. Another 5 million tonnes of APW high protein milling wheat on the market needs to find a home. You'd think that our lower quality grain would be competing with feeds.

The UKS market is an interesting one - we used to have a big export market for Group 3 when varieties like Oakley, Robigus, Claire and Consort dominated the Recommended List. Elicit and Firefly might help rebuild that a bit but you need a lot of premium to cover the yield penalty of Gp 3s.

 

[Jo28]

Australian wheat can displace U.K. Wheat indirectly. Another 5 million tonnes of APW high protein milling wheat on the market needs to find a home. You'd think that our lower quality grain would be competing with feeds.

The UKS market is an interesting one - we used to have a big export market for Group 3 when varieties like Oakley, Robigus, Claire and Consort dominated the Recommended List. Elicit and Firefly might help rebuild that a bit but you need a lot of premium to cover the yield penalty of Gp 3s.

We stopped growing group 3 about 15 years ago as nearly always £3 or less premium which if you didn't quite meet spec could be deducted below feed price. Bet it hasn't changed!!

 

[T Hectares]

‘17 & ‘18 saw £10/t premiums, last year dropped away to £3/t but early sales were @ £10/t
Sold some for the next two years with £10/t min premiums.

Yields have been pretty solid here from Gp3’s but yes, needs £5/t premium minimum really

 

[deleted user 837354]

Surely in the big grain parts of Europe being unable to drill much wheat is hardly a problem as they will grow grain maize in the spring?

 

[yellow belly]

Australian wheat can displace U.K. Wheat indirectly. Another 5 million tonnes of APW high protein milling wheat on the market needs to find a home. You'd think that our lower quality grain would be competing with feeds.

The UKS market is an interesting one - we used to have a big export market for Group 3 when varieties like Oakley, Robigus, Claire and Consort dominated the Recommended List. Elicit and Firefly might help rebuild that a bit but you need a lot of premium to cover the yield penalty of Gp 3s.

is there that much yield loss in practice my premium for gp3 was last year was £6 for soft wheat And for this year it will be more not enough soft wheat in the ground


I recon we’ve exported more wheat to aus than they have landed in uk
we are more likely to buy cheaper wheat than they sell
most of our Wheat imports are German canadien Bread wheat or pasta wheat

this year we will likely need some feed wheat grade for cerestar unless they start using maize

the biggest problem we may have is low spec weight and micro toxins