Budget predictions ?

Steevo

Member
Location
Gloucestershire
just wait until they start cutting corporation tax and highrate income tax and building loads of infrastructure

The Labour Party might as well all retire

I'd rather this happened and we became a country that actually did something and had quality infrastructure to be proud of rather a nation whose wealth is based on house building and house price inflation, with builders and electricians paid more than nurses, and a significant proportion of the population having almost zero money left at the end of every month after they've paid their mortgage, PCP, loans etc.

It's sad for example that we have an outdated train system that costs a fortune to use. One or the other would be understandable but both seems mad.
 

Al R

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
West Wales
your right , neighbour had inspection regard planning on his mothers old house , conservation bloke wouldnt let them renew front door as it was supposed ancient , chap looked embarrassed when neighbour told him he knocked it up in a woodwork class out of an old table when he was at school,some 40 odd years ago lol
That’s brilliant, we wanted to put a gateway in a hedge to another block of land, archaeologists etc all came out and said it was from the 1700’s so no way, absolutely no way. We then showed them a picture of 10 years previous where there were 2 Old hurdles across the area they were examining and the stone/soil hedge had been chucked back ontop with a manitou. They swore we were lying and said it was a area as this was definitely ancient until we could see the old rusty hurdle loop in the hedge :ROFLMAO: :LOL:?‍♂️
 

Steevo

Member
Location
Gloucestershire
im sure if you search back far enough on TFF to the days around the Brexit referendum I might have been suggesting the UK would likely become the worlds greatest tax haven if the EU didn’t behave themselves in negotiations

Plenty of companies already pay next to zero tax on profits generated in this country.....so we may as well have something out of them rather than nothing.

Monaco don't seem to be doing too badly on it.


In fact, taking a list of tax havens...Andorra, the Bahamas, Belize, Bermuda, the British Virgin Islands, the Cayman Islands, the Channel Islands, the Cook Islands, The Island of Jersey, Hong Kong, The Isle of Man, Mauritius, Lichtenstein, Monaco, Panama, St. Kitts, and Nevis. They all sound rather inviting places - may as well add UK to that list.
 

farmerm

Member
Location
Shropshire
would you worry about debt if you could legally print money ? The numbers are meaningless, always have been
Up to a point but if you keep printing money you start to devalue the currency, cause inflation to rocket and end up looking like Zimbabwe don't you? That doesn't sound like an attractive tax haven...
 
im sure if you search back far enough on TFF to the days around the Brexit referendum I might have been suggesting the UK would likely become the worlds greatest tax haven if the EU didn’t behave themselves in negotiations

If you are advocating that, now would be the time to do it because interest rates are so low you will be able to maintain public spending without worrying about the tax take for a few years.
 

DrWazzock

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Lincolnshire
would you worry about debt if you could legally print money ? The numbers are meaningless, always have been

Inflation. You cannot buck the market. The real strength or weakness of the economy will always make itself known. If you just print more money without there being real growth behind it then all you do is make every pound coin worth that little bit less and stoke inflation.
Subsidisation of dinners is a good example. Soon they will be £10 more expensive anyway as the restaurateurs add the sub to price.
Look at land and property prices. £10,000 per acre but not really worth any more than it was 40 years ago at £1500 per acre, so £1 buys 1/6 of what it did back then.
Everybody will soon be a millionaire but nothing will be any more affordable. It’s make people feel good but that’s about all:
The real problem will arise when lenders get cold feet and decide that countries like China are actually a safer haven for investment than those reliant on hairdressing and dinners. If the government has to offer higher interest rates to compete on international money markets then we will finish up a banana replubic with no bananas.
 
if the govment borrows at current interest rates 0.1 percent for 30 plus years then the cost per tax payer is not excessive

5000 million would cost 50 million a year
if inflation averages 1.5% over the 30 years what will be paid back in 30 years in real terms
 

Brisel

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Midlands
if the govment borrows at current interest rates 0.1 percent for 30 plus years then the cost per tax payer is not excessive

5000 million would cost 50 million a year
if inflation averages 1.5% over the 30 years what will be paid back in 30 years in real terms

That depends on the mugs who buy the bonds at an interest rate lower than inflation. Why? Ultra low risk?

 

fgc325j

Member
That depends on the mugs who buy the bonds at an interest rate lower than inflation. Why? Ultra low risk?

My understanding is that the "mugs" buying these non-interest government bonds are pension and insurance funds
who, by law, have to hold a large proportion of the money, invested by the general public, in low risk investments.
BUT - since a larger %age of the population is reaching retirement age, and will be dependant on pensions paid out
from monies they have to pay into a pension, then i am wondering how you can pay more out from a pot, where the interest
it earns is a. less than inflation, and b. the number of people paying into the pot, i.e those still working and contributing, is getting
less.
 

Brisel

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Midlands
My understanding is that the "mugs" buying these non-interest government bonds are pension and insurance funds
who, by law, have to hold a large proportion of the money, invested by the general public, in low risk investments.
BUT - since a larger %age of the population is reaching retirement age, and will be dependant on pensions paid out
from monies they have to pay into a pension, then i am wondering how you can pay more out from a pot, where the interest
it earns is a. less than inflation, and b. the number of people paying into the pot, i.e those still working and contributing, is getting
less.

They must sell, or they wouldn't be offered. Perhaps when they do a round of QE they increase the offer rates? Greek Eurobond is probably a better indicator of sovereign risk. 6% was the accepted maximum beyond which they wouldn't be able to cover the payouts.

1594279582012.png
 

fudge

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Lincolnshire.
They must sell, or they wouldn't be offered. Perhaps when they do a round of QE they increase the offer rates? Greek Eurobond is probably a better indicator of sovereign risk. 6% was the accepted maximum beyond which they wouldn't be able to cover the payouts.

View attachment 893204
Er circumstances alter cases, all these bits of paper are saleable until they are not. Much of the UK’s ability to pay back debt appears to be based on inflated property values rather than the productive capacity of the economy. What could possibly go wrong?
 

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