Kazakhstan...

[Devil's advocate]

Obviously no winners from a nuclear exchange, and I don't for a moment think Vlad would start one unless Mother Russia as a whole was seriously threatened, any more than we would in re the UK.

In any conventional conflict against the 'West' as a whole - or the US alone - Russia would have the living sh!t kicked out of it, and Vlad knows this full well. That's why he picks his fights very carefully, never doing anything big /serious enough to provoke or require a proper retaliation from Western powers, but significant enough for him to be able to say 'Look, I do what I want and they do nothing.'
But he isn't stupid and simply wouldn't dare push too hard.

But... sooner or later he may well misjudge or push a bit too hard by accident, if that happens and a serious response comes back at him, he'll fold immediately and cut his losses, probably blaming 'rogue' local commanders.

Well we seem to be there, now. Easy with hindsight.

 

[Devil's advocate]

I don't understand why the President of Kazahstan who owes his position to Putin, now appears prepared to argue with Putin.

Complex country, Dictator for President, China & Russia for neighbours & some of the population may turn to extreme Islam (I think most of them are a mild secular type of Muslim)

 

[Devil's advocate]

Found this interesting...

Special Report: Putin's plan and its terrifying consequences for Europe

The West faces an ultimatum from Russia that could result in actual war. Yet we don’t seem to have noticed. Paris Sorbonne professor of international relations and Russia specialist FRANÇOISE THOM analyses the threat.

www.theneweuropean.co.uk

He had a crystal ball.

 

[Ashtree]

Politicians cling to power in those despotic countries….

 

[Devil's advocate]

Politicians cling to power in those despotic countries….

Is he now trying to lead? rather than force?

 

[Danllan]

I wonder if the Kazakhs now seeing a weakened Putin, greatly occupied / distracted by Ukraine and the sanctions against him. And, seeing that, they are thinking that it is worth pushing a bit more than they could before. Others may imitate them, and it's hard to see Putin trying to strong-arm anyone beyond Ukraine at the moment.

 

[BrianV]

It has been reported here, I think most in the west believe it is for Russian consumption as opposed to any realistic threat. However it should be read far more widely particularly those useful idiots on both Right and Left who think the sun shines out of Vlads rear end.
He has been working hard for years to drive splinters in any weak point he can find and that has not been difficult for him. Brexit was a godsend , he was always aware that Britain was. By far and away the most anti Russian state and now he has a stranglehold on Europes energy supply he feels he can dictate any terms he likes.
One good thing Trump did was to raise concerns about the Nordstream gas link , however it is probably far too late. Those politicians responsible for destroying all the coal plants in Europe should be hung out to dry

You really think Trump would have stood by as Russia built up it's forces on the Ukrainian border & then would he have announced to the World that if Putin invaded they would do nothing at all to stop them, pretty much an open invite, I don't think so Trump would have been threatening nukes by tea time but then Biden & the US had their own reasons for inviting Russia in didn't they!

 

[Devil's advocate]

I wonder if the Kazakhs now seeing a weakened Putin, greatly occupied / distracted by Ukraine and the sanctions against him. And, seeing that, they are thinking that it is worth pushing a bit more than they could before. Others may imitate them, and it's hard to see Putin trying to strong-arm anyone beyond Ukraine at the moment.

Ordinary Kazahs or the leadership.

 

[Danllan]

Ordinary Kazahs or the leadership.

Probably both.

 

[fudge]

You really think Trump would have stood by as Russia built up it's forces on the Ukrainian border & then would he have announced to the World that if Putin invaded they would do nothing at all to stop them, pretty much an open invite, I don't think so Trump would have been threatening nukes by tea time but then Biden & the US had their own reasons for inviting Russia in didn't they!

Trump did nothing when Crimea was annexed in 2014.

 

[uztrac]

Trump did nothing when Crimea was annexed in 2014.

Trump was NOT the POTUS in 2014. Therefore like the rest of us he was a bi-stander.

 

[Exfarmer]

Trump did nothing when Crimea was annexed in 2014.

He was not in power, Obama was and yes he did nothing

 

[Hindsight]

Politicians cling to power in those despotic countries….

You are a card.

 

[fudge]

Trump was NOT the POTUS in 2014. Therefore like the rest of us he was a bi-stander.

The conflict in Donbas has been going on since that date. He certainly praised Putin whilst Putin was sponsoring that conflict. He was in power then.

 

[Hindsight]

He was not in power, Obama was and yes he did nothing

I thought the domestic US politics was for the US to not get involved in any more wars, and this was being trumpeted by Trump as he got his presidential candidacy started. This the Democrats were wary of getting involved. Not helped by the great rally UK parliament refusing to back Cameron when he asked permission to engage in Syria etc.

 

[Devil's advocate]

kazakhstan - Search Videos

www.bing.com

Interesting film, looks like Putins empire is starting to fall apart

 

[Scots_Knight]

You really think Trump would have stood by as Russia built up it's forces on the Ukrainian border & then would he have announced to the World that if Putin invaded they would do nothing at all to stop them, pretty much an open invite, I don't think so Trump would have been threatening nukes by tea time but then Biden & the US had their own reasons for inviting Russia in didn't they!

Trump wouldn't have been doing anything, do you not remember he wanted to pull out of NATO.

His slogan was "America first" and sometimes added full version "From now on it's only going to be America first" and he meant it, praised Putin for his genius move at first in Ukraine, only flipped when the dead bodies stated to pile up.

By the way why hasn't Russia started to attack Finland as NATO expansion was part of your excuse for the Ukraine war ??

Video: Trump Called Putin ‘Smart’ Ahead of Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Former President Donald Trump labeled Russian President Vladimir Putin "smart" because of the way he moved to invade Ukraine. During

ijr.com

 

[arcobob]

According to the life of Brian the Ukraine war was to a great extent caused by Zelensky`s threat to join NATO and refusing to back down. I agree that this is what Putin intimated but in spite of that he is going to get more NATO, not less.
Was Putin wrong, just bluffing or having a laugh? Either way, it was not what his invasion of Ukraine was about. If he wins he will be emboldened and if he loses he will lick his wounds, retreat and regroup. I am not sure what is required to change the Russian psyche but oppressive dictatorship is certainly getting in the way.

 

[BrianV]

According to the life of Brian the Ukraine war was to a great extent caused by Zelensky`s threat to join NATO and refusing to back down. I agree that this is what Putin intimated but in spite of that he is going to get more NATO, not less.
Was Putin wrong, just bluffing or having a laugh? Either way, it was not what his invasion of Ukraine was about. If he wins he will be emboldened and if he loses he will lick his wounds, retreat and regroup. I am not sure what is required to change the Russian psyche but oppressive dictatorship is certainly getting in the way.

Very much depends what you see as Putin winning entails, I would guess he would consider now keeping the Dombas regions & the rest of Ukraine staying out of NATO as a win, it would seem some what counter productive to take over the whole of Ukraine permanently & have the border of Russia moved right up against NATO's Poland.
The problem he has is getting NATO & Zelensky to agree to this which will entail a hell of a lot more bloodshed.

 

[BrianV]

Trump wouldn't have been doing anything, do you not remember he wanted to pull out of NATO.

His slogan was "America first" and sometimes added full version "From now on it's only going to be America first" and he meant it, praised Putin for his genius move at first in Ukraine, only flipped when the dead bodies stated to pile up.

By the way why hasn't Russia started to attack Finland as NATO expansion was part of your excuse for the Ukraine war ??

Video: Trump Called Putin ‘Smart’ Ahead of Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Former President Donald Trump labeled Russian President Vladimir Putin "smart" because of the way he moved to invade Ukraine. During

ijr.com

Finlands position on the map in relation to Russia does not pose such a threat in Putin's eyes & it is by no means certain that Finland will get the agreement of all NATO countries for some time, besides we are often told Russia have very little armaments left now after fighting the relatively small Ukraine.