I’ve no doubt we’re all concerned about the lack of rain at present but time will pass soon and will be back sowing next years crop ! Anyone looking at November 2021 wheat prices and thinking about locking in some ? There will a lot of wheat sown next Autumn unless we have another weather disaster of course!!
Wheat 2021 !
- Thread starter Davylad
- Start date
What makes you think that ? this summer could be a washout .
- Location
- East yorks
Considering we were very close to getting zero wheat in the ground this year I won’t be
grommet
Member
- Location
- The shire...
given whats going on, lets just get this one out of the way first.....
yellow belly
Member
- Location
- south west lincolnshire
Will be planting what’s best for my rotation as trying to second guess next years prices and altering cropping can throw up more problems than it solves
pick varieties that have a market not just feed wheat and hope
pick varieties that have a market not just feed wheat and hope
- Location
- Lincolnshire
Whats the price? if its over £200 I might, below that it might be locking in a loss.
I was being encouraged to plant spring barley, no one would lock in £150 before Xmas so I didnt bother.
John Slejpner
Member
- Location
- Brick clay near Bedford
Yes.
Financial advisors au fait with futures and option traders, Lincsman, have often argued with me that it's actually much better to lock in a small loss now than to suffer a larger loss later.
shakerator
Member
- Location
- LINCS
brilliantFinancial advisors au fait with futures and option traders, Lincsman, have often argued with me that it's actually much better to lock in a small loss now than to suffer a larger loss later.
Only a farmer
SilliamWhale
Member
There is nothing to tempt me for 2021 yet. Its about £150 isn't it? I'd like to see more than that.
I cant see how we won't see a spike in grain prices this year
I cant see how we won't see a spike in grain prices this year
- Location
- Herefordshire
I think there will be less wheat planted,loads of spring barley planted,nationally,which is not a break for wheat.I,personally,can't sell what I haven’t planted.Maybe I'm a little too cautious but I have memories of selling forward and then combining flat,sprouted wheat yielding about half normal yields.Was it the early nineties ?
'92.
Yes we will be locking in 50% for Nov 2021. I haven't properly looked but is it anywhere near £180? Wont do anymore than 50% though as we very nearly got caught out in 2012. Taught us a very valuable lesson that anymore than 50% of expected tonnage is a stupid thing to do.
- Location
- Herefordshire
Bossfarmer
Member
- Location
- between Perth and Inverness
what do you forsee causing this spike?
SilliamWhale
Member
Well I just don't think we have much grain in the country. We can talk about world markets all we like but I think reality will hit later on. That said I have sold some wheat forward at £163 ton this Nov and I'm not sure was it the right thing or not.
I'm trying to think of the last time we had a low level of grain harvest and terrible prices combined
Harvest 1971
Lowest yields since 1947 and only £16/t off the combine.
Within 18 months, grain prices had trebled and George Semper's famous shorts had bankrupted one of our biggest customers, Kenneth Wilson.
SilliamWhale
Member
Good point.
So the real low was probably wheat sold forward at £90 for 1992 just before that awful harvest (see above) and the devaluation then putting it up to £150.
- Location
- Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
We have about a million hectares of spring barley in the ground this year.. it won't be that much next year for sure. OSR looks certain to be down - logic says wheat will be up.....